October 01, 2015
Joaquin is now a Category 4 and still intensifying, with winds in excess of 130mph.
The hurricane is pounding away, right into the heart of the Bahamas, drifting at an agonizing slow motion of about 5 mph. It will be a long terrifying night for anyone living or visiting the Central Bahamas.
Computer model guidance has been as far apart in predicting Joaquin's future moves as any hurricane I have ever seen in modern-day history.
LATEST UPDATE: Joaquin's track seen going east; NJ declares state of emergency
By contrast, computer models had a strong fix on devastating Sandy's future track almost a week before she made landfall at the Jersey Shore.
I had a lot more confidence in forecasting Sandy's future moves than I do now with Joaquin – beyond 48 hours.
I have noticed, however, two distinct trends that puts me a bit more at ease than I did less than 24 hours ago.
Frst, the European model has been the Lone Ranger for days now, indicating that Joaquin will remain well off the coastline. The Euro has always been a blue chip model, even though it lost a little of its A rating this past winter as the GFS (Global Forecasting) model was upgraded and performed with more superiority over the winter season.
The GFS has pretty much been taking Joaquin on a crash course with the Mid-Atlantic coast, although recent trends have been more easterly.
Secondly, the strongest evidence that I have analyzed is a weakness in the High Pressure ridge – a mountain of heavier air that directly reflects the future moves of any storm along with the jetstream – that looks this evening likely to form a weakness in the Northeast quadrant allowing an escape route for Joaquin. If that happens, that weakness will keep the beast in the east and far enough off the coast to keep impacts significant ... But NOT major or severe.
I'm not highly confident of this positive scenario just yet, until I see a significant clustering of models in basically one camp.
In summary even if Joaquin stays offshore, coastal sections will experience major coastal flooding right through the weekend, along with very strong and gusty, 40mph-plus winds.
A byproduct of Joaquin will be bands of heavy rain pushing northwest from southwest to northeast across the region from Friday into at least Saturday. If Joaquin takes the more easterly veer then Sunday could turn out dry with just windy conditions & coastal flooding
One last note
The Eagles game on Sunday against the Redskins in Washington, D.C., I'm forecasting from what I see now to be DRY...
