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June 25, 2017

Eagles rookie NFL player comparisons: The full series

Over the last week, we took a look at each of the Eagles' rookie draft picks, and compared them to current and/or former NFL players. In case you missed any of them, here is the series in full.

Derek Barnett

Last year, we compared Carson Wentz to Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles, noting that Wentz's physical and mental measurables bested Bortles' across the board. In other words, I saw Bortles as something of a "floor" comparison for Wentz, even with Bortles having something of a breakout season in 2015. (Bortles regressed in 2016).

Similarly, I see the Chiefs' Dee Ford as something of a "floor" comparison to Barnett. First, let's look at their measurables:

 MeasurableDerek Barnett Dee Ford 
 Height 6'36'2 
 Weight 259252 
 Arm length 32 1/832 7/8 
 Hand size 1010 1/4 
 10 yard dash 1.751.67 
 40 yard dash 4.884.59 
 Vertical jump 3135 1/2 
 Broad jump 117124 
 3 cone drill 6.967.07 
 20 yard shuttle 4.444.73 


As you can see, their heights, weights, arm lengths, and hand sizes are all very similar. From an athleticism standpoint, Ford certainly had better "explosion numbers," as his 40 time, 10-yard split, vertical jump, and broad jump measurables were all better than Barnett's. On the other hand, Barnett's "change of direction" measurables, such as the 3-cone drill and the 20-yard shuttle, were better than Ford's.


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If you've taken any time to watch Barnett's play in college, you've already clearly identified that he mostly won with his outside pass rush. You've also probably noticed that Barnett did a good job keying on snap counts to get a jump on opposing offensive tackles, his motor never stopped during the play, and he always seemed to make big plays during crucial moments of games. In those respects, he was very similar to Ford.

The way they won around the edge was different, however, as Barnett won around the edge with his dip and bend, coupled with outstanding hand-fighting, while Ford simply won with speed.

Both Barnett and Ford had similar limitations as well. Neither player had a great inside move to counter their effectiveness of getting around the edge. They also both could not convert speed to power, as both players lacked a bull rush.

A breakdown of Ford's game coming out of college:


After two seasons playing behind Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, Ford had just 6 career sacks. With Houston injured for most of the 2016 season (Ford's third in the league), he had 10 sacks, mostly coming from around the corner, as he has not yet developed a go-to inside move that has worked consistently. The Chiefs opted to pick up Ford's fifth-year option this offseason.

I believe Barnett was a significantly superior prospect to Ford coming out of college for the following reasons:

• Barnett was a far more productive player in college.

Player Games Tackles Sacks TFL 
 Derek Barnett 39 197 33 52 
Dee Ford 52 93 20.5 27.5 


As you can see, Barnett's career production dwarfs Ford's, despite playing in 13 fewer games.

• A significant concern of Ford's coming out of college was his ability to hold the edge against the run. There are no such run game concerns with Barnett.

• Barnett was 27 months younger than Ford when he was drafted.

• Ford had a history of injuries in college, while Barnett stayed healthy.

Barring injury or some other odd unforeseen circumstances, I can't see a scenario where Barnett isn't at least as good as Dee Ford, at a minimum. If he can develop a devastating inside counter move to go along with his excellent dip and bend around the edge, he could be great.

Sidney Jones

A common comp for Jones coming out of college was former Washington teammate and now Pro Bowl corner for the Kansas City Chiefs, Marcus Peters. In Jones' scouting report on NFL.com, Mike Mayock was quoted saying just that:

"He reminds me of Marcus Peters, another Washington Husky. What I love about him is he's got instincts, he's got ball skills and he will tackle even though he's lean at 186."

So did NFL.com's Lance Zierlein:

"Jones is a "casino cornerback" who has the ball skills and instincts to tilt the odds in his favor when quarterbacks look his way. His toughness and desire to make plays on the ball are remarkably similar to his friend and off-season workout buddy, Marcus Peters. Jones has lockdown corner talent but unfortunately, teams will have to wrestle with his draft positioning as there is no guarantee that Jones can come back with the same quickness and speed as before."

The player who he reminds me of, and we're going to go back a ways here, is Samari Rolle, who played for the Titans (who were actually still the Oilers in his rookie year) and Ravens. 

Rolle played at a very thin 6'0, 175. He played for four years under Jim Schwartz in Tennessee from 2000 to 2004, when he left in free agency to play for the Ravens, where current Eagles personnel head Joe Douglas was on staff in the scouting department.

Rolle was a ballhawk who excelled at getting his hands on the football. In his first five years as a starter in Tennessee, he had 22 interceptions, including earning first team All-Pro honors in 2000 when he had seven picks. In the first three seasons the NFL started tracking pass breakups (2001-2003), Rolle had 44 PBUs, an excellent number. He did so while often following the opposing team's best wide receiver, which is something the best corners in the league are no longer often asked to do.

Rolle, like Jones, was also unafraid to stick his nose in and make tackles from his corner spot despite his thin frame, and he exhibited toughness by playing through epilepsy.

If Jones can regain his form after recovering from his ruptured Achilles, Peters and Rolle would be high standards that he has the potential to match.

Rasul Douglas

For Douglas' comp, we're going to go a little more obscure. The player Douglas very closely resembles in recent memory is former Browns, Cowboys, and Lions corner Anthony Henry.

Who?

Henry actually had a pretty decent career in the NFL from 2000 to 2009, playing in 132 games (96 starts), mostly as the No. 2 corner, picking off 33 passes during that time. Eagles fans may or may not remember him from his 57 games (51 starts) with the Cowboys from 2005 to 2008. In 2009, in Jim Schwartz's first year in Detroit, the Lions signed Henry in free agency, where he played one more year in the NFL.

Douglas and Henry have very similar measurables:

 MeasurableRasul Douglas Anthony Henry 
 Height 6'26'1 
 Weight 209208 
 40 yard dash 4.594.60 
 Vertical jump 33 1/241 
 Broad jump 120126 
 20 yard shuttle 4.264.21 
 Bench press 16 reps15 reps 


As you can see, both Douglas and Henry are/were bigger corners with bad 40 times. Interestingly, the NFL valued them similarly, with Henry being chosen 97th overall in the 2000 NFL Draft when he came out, and Douglas being chosen 99th overall this year.

In his senior year in college, Douglas picked off eight passes, which tied for the NCAA lead. In his rookie season in Cleveland, Henry came out on fire, picking off a whopping 10 passes for the Browns. Both players have relied on their ball skills and instincts to make up for less than impressive long speed.

Because of that significant deficiency, Douglas will likely never be a lockdown, "do-everything well" No. 1 type of corner, but he can be a very good No. 2 who chips in the occasional big play, much like Henry did throughout his career.

Mack Hollins

In our first edition of this series, we compared Barnett to a player that represented something of a "floor" in comparison, as in something close to a worst-case scenario. We'll do the same for Hollins here.

A number of people have compared Hollins to former Eagle Hank Baskett, because of their size-speed similarities, as well as their special teams contributions. In my view, Hollins is more explosive than Baskett, and could be a special teams standout, as opposed to just another special teams contributor. The player who I think he more closely mirrors in that respect is retired wide receiver Kelley Washington, who bounced around the league, playing for the Bengals, Patriots, Ravens, Eagles (preseason only), and Chargers.

Washington's best seasons came in New England (surprise), where he routinely did stuff like this on special teams:


However, Washington never really put it all together as a receiver in the NFL, as he had just 120 career catches for 1500 yards and 12 TDs. He did, however, make the most of his touchdowns when he was able to get into the end zone:


(There's no way I wasn't going to include that dance video, obviously.) 

Washington played at 6'3, 218, and had a 40 time of 4.42. Hollins measured in at the Combine at 6'4, 221. His 40 time at the Combine was just 4.53, but he injured his leg during his run, and is thought to be a player who would have otherwise run in the 4.4 range.

Like Hollins, Washington was a down-the-field receiver whose draft stock was hurt to some degree because he was injured his last season in college. He eventually became a star special teamer, but little more.

Hollins' work on special teams at North Carolina impressed special teams coach Dave Fipp.

"When I watched his tape, I saw a lot of plays," said Fipp. "He made a lot of plays, so we're excited to use him. I think he'll fit in well. I think he'll find a role for himself, but I do think he's got some work to do. But we're excited about him."

Because Washington was not able to carve out a significant role in any offense he played in, he bounced around the league.

"There's a lot of people who say, 'You can make the team on special teams.,' and I wouldn't necessarily say that's totally true," said Fipp. "You really have to make the team on offense and special teams, or defense and special teams. But it's usually a combination of both. There's not a whole lot of guys who just play special teams and have no other value. And if there is a guy like that, there's not many on each team. In order to make the team on just special teams alone, you better make an awful lot of plays."

Howie Roseman thinks that Hollins is a lot more than just a special teams maven.

"It was the receiving ability first," Roseman said. "You're talking about a guy who's got tremendous size and tremendous speed. We feel like if he didn't have the collarbone [injury] this year, he goes two rounds before that. Tremendous upside as a receiver, and he's got the intelligence and work ethic to work on whatever his deficiencies are. In the meantime, he has a role to fill [on special teams] and you can get him on the field on the 46-man roster. But we're not looking to draft [just] special-teams players in the fourth round. We're looking at a guy like that who's got the ability to be an eventual starter."

While the notion that Hollins would have been a second round pick if he didn't injure his collarbone is a little far-fetched, Roseman is correct to point out his ideal combination of size and athleticism. 

At a minimum, Hollins will very likely suit up on game day this year covering kicks and punts. As such, his "floor" comparison would be a guy like Baskett or Washington. We'll see if he can eventually make an impact in the regular offense.

Donnel Pumphrey

The obvious comparison to make for Pumphrey is current Eagle Darren Sproles. In fact, waaaaay back in October of last year in our Eagles Grocery Shopping series, we pegged Pumphrey as a potential Eagles target who could eventually take over many of Sproles' roles.

That's too easy. In three of our first four editions of this series, we've gone with old school comparisons. We'll do the same for Pumphrey here.

The player comparison I like for Pumphrey is former do-everything guy Glyn Milburn, who played for the Broncos, Lions, Bears and Chargers as a running back, receiver, kick returner, and punt returner.

Milburn was listed at 5'8, 177, while Pumphrey measured in at the Combine at 5'8, 176. Like Milburn, Pumphrey could have a role playing a variety of positions in the NFL. Here's Milburn breaking the record for most all-purpose yards in a single game, a record that still stands:


From his fourth season in the pros on, Milburn was mostly just a kick and punt return specialist, but in his first three seasons, he also played a significant role in the Broncos' offense. We noted the dynamic role the Eagles seem to have in mind for Pumphrey, when we named him among the five players who impressed during spring practices:

In spring practices, Pumphrey got more reps than any other back on the roster, and the Eagles moved him all around the formation. It seems pretty clear that they want to get him involved in the offense in a dynamic role.

Additionally, Pumphrey looked comfortable fielding kicks and punts. That's not something he did much of in college games, since he essentially was San Diego State's offense, and they didn't want to risk getting him injured on special teams. However, it is something he worked on in practice every day at SDSU, which is already serving him well at the pro level.

In his first three seasons in the NFL, Milburn averaged 53 carries for 233 yards and 46 catches for 347 yards, while also returning punts and kicks. His downfall was ball security, as he had an absurd 15 fumbles over those first three years.

I see similar type of numbers for Pumphrey in his first three years, minus the extreme fumbling.

Shelton Gibson

At West Virginia, Gibson was a big-time deep threat who could take the top off a defense. Here were his numbers over the last two seasons:

 Shelton GibsonRec Yards YPC TD 
 201537 887 24.0 
 201643 951 22.1 8 
 TOTAL80 1838 23.0 17 


Gibson didn't make a lot of catches, but when he did, they were big ones. He was a one-trick pony, but when that trick is catching occasional passes deep down the field and averaging 23 yards a pop when you do, you're going to get drafted.

During Eagles spring practices, Gibson did not look good, earning a spot among our five players who did not impress during OTAs and minicamp, with the following explanation:

Seemingly every day, Gibson struggled with dropped passes, many of which occurred during individual drills with no defenders on the field. Gibson is coming from an unsophisticated offense at West Virginia, so he has some ground to make up in the pros mentally, but that has little to do with him dropping routine catches.

It's pretty clear early on that Gibson is not going to contribute immediately, and he may even end up on the practice squad if he is unable to work through some of his early struggles in training camp.

If Gibson can get past his early struggles and carve out a career in the NFL, a player who makes sense as a comparison is Aldrick Robinson, who has played for the Redskins and Falcons, and will play for the 49ers in 2017.

Robinson was drafted by the Redskins in the sixth round of the 2011 NFL Draft and did not make the 53-man roster, eventually landing on the practice squad. In 2012 and 2013, he made the team and was able to contribute the occasional big play. Here were his numbers those two years:

 Aldrick RobinsonRec Yards YPC TD 
 201211 237 21.5 
 201318 365 20.3 2 
 TOTAL29 602 20.8 


Robinson disappeared for a couple years, before getting a chance to play again last season for the Falcons, where he put up a stat line of 20-320-2.

Robinson (5'10, 184) and Gibson (5'11, 191) are both slight receivers with hands smaller than nine inches. It took a year for Robinson to find a role in the Redskins' offense as a sparingly used receiver who can stretch the field and help open things up underneath, but not a guy you're looking for on 3rd and 5. That could also be the career path for Gibson.

Nate Gerry

At Nebraska, Gerry was a safety who will convert to linebacker in the pros. Gerry was something of a ball hawk in college, picking off 13 passes his last three years.

The question likely won't be whether or not Gerry can cover well enough at the pro level from his linebacker spot. It will be whether he can hold up physically as a linebacker at 218 pounds. Throughout OTAs and minicamp, Gerry showed good instincts in coverage, as you might expect from a former safety. During OTAs and minicamp, he picked off at least two passes in media-attended practices. He has also put on about 10 pounds since he weighed in at the Combine.

A player who made a similar transition from safety to linebacker was Cato June, who played safety at Michigan, but was mostly used in the pros as an athletic cover-2 linebacker for the Colts and Buccaneers.

June's and Gerry's measurables are very close:


 MeasurableNate Gerry Cato June 
 Height 6'26'1 
 Weight 218218 
 40 yard dash 4.584.61 


Gerry was drafted 184th overall, June 198th overall, both coming from Big Ten schools.

June was a starter in the NFL for five years, picking off 12 passes and breaking up 26 passes during that span. His best season, by far, was 2005, when he picked off five passes, two of which were pick-sixes. That earned him an oddball Pro Bowl berth, although he was not what you would consider a "Pro Bowl player" over the course of his career, as he was not always the best run defender:


Gerry could have a role in the Eagles' defense in sub-package sets, where he can cover tight ends and running backs. Ideally, he will be a more complete player who is not a liability against the run.

Elijah Qualls

Throughout this series, we've been trying to find realistic equals for each player, often noting the "floor" comparison, or what the player could be in a worst case scenario. In the case of Qualls, we'll shoot for more of a "ceiling" comparison, or a best case scenario.

A player Qualls reminds me of is Titans DT Jurrell Casey. Here's how their measurables compare:


 MeasurableElijah Qualls Jurrell Casey 
 Height 6'16'1 
 Weight 313305 
 Arm length 30 5/832 
 Hand size 9 3/88 7/8 


Qualls and Casey are both heavy defensive tackles for their heights, with abnormally short arms and small hands. From a body type perspective, they are both quite unimpressive. Additionally, neither player did anything overly impressive in their workouts.

As a result, Casey fell to the third round of the 2011 NFL Draft, while Qualls fell to the sixth round. During the season, in our "Grocery Shopping" series, I considered profiling Qualls several times because I thought he'd be a good fit for the Eagles' scheme, but I assumed he'd be a late Day 2, or early Day 3 pick. I thought the odds that the Eagles would take a DT that high were low, so I didn't profile him. 

However, Casey and Qualls were just good football players coming out of college, despite their unimpressive measurables. Qualls believes he was drafted too late.

"I was disappointed that I got picked where I was, but then it gave me a chip on my shoulder," said Qualls. "I was drafted at No. 214, and I truly don't feel like 213 players were better than me coming out of college."

In six seasons with the Titans, Casey has 33 sacks, and he has been named to two Pro Bowls. While we are certainly not projecting that (or even a guaranteed roster spot) for Qualls, Casey is representative of a player with similar athleticism, body type and skill set.


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