December 09, 2017
The Eagles' two-game West Coast trip, one many believed would be a true litmus test for this upstart squad, comes to an end on Sunday with the Birds looking to split with the Seahawks and Rams. It's not the ideal scenario for Eagles fans, but after last week's loss in Seattle, it's the best they can hope for.
For the first time since their Week 6 win over the Panthers, the Eagles are an underdog, so Doug Pederson, Carson Wentz and the rest of the team will have their work cut out for them against a 9-3 Los Angeles team that, like the Birds, has exceeded expectations to this point in the season.
Will they bounce back ... or will they come limping back to Philly no longer in possession of a first-round bye in the playoffs? Here are five numbers to keep an eye on in this one...
That's the current total being offered over at Bovada, and given that these are the top two scoring offenses in the NFL, that number may seem a little low. However, both of these teams also boast top-15 defenses, with each holding opponents to below 20 points per game. And, sure, their defenses can help keep some of the scoring down, but I don't see both the Eagles and the Rams being held well below their season averages of 30.9 PPG. The only way this hits the under is if it's a totally one-sided affair – and that also seems highly unlikely.
OVER.
[In other words, which QB will attempt more passes?]
To me, this is one of the key numbers in the game. The Eagles have lost each of the two games this season in which Carson Wentz attempted the most passes he has this season. That's largely a product of the game situation – teams playing from behind typically throw the ball more often. Both quarterbacks have been very good this season, so this has less to do with them being a liability with the ball in their hands and more to do with what having the ball in their hands means.
Furthermore, if the Eagles aren't throwing as much, that likely means that they're finding some success on the ground. And that balance has been the key to their success for much of the season. On the flip side, if the Rams are the ones running the ball (rather than passing) the Eagles could be in trouble as they'll have to deal with arguably the best running back they've seen all season in Todd Gurley (more on him in a second). I'm not sure that the Eagles will be able to win this battle, but doing so will go a long way toward them winning the game. And since I did pick them to win...
UNDER.
Gurley, just 24-years old, is on pace for over 2,000 yards from scrimmage (1,252 rushing yards and 751 receiving yards) and 15 touchdowns this season. He's also already set new career highs in touchdowns, total yards, receiving yards and receptions. It's also worth noting that despite all the Rams' success at wideout this season, Gurley is second on the team in receptions and receiving yards.
As you can see, he's clearly their most dangerous offensive weapon – and the Eagles would do well to keep him in check on Sunday. As we alluded to above, the Eagles can help that cause by putting the Rams behind early and forcing them to throw. That being said, Gurley's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield could give the Birds defense fits no matter what the score is. And since the Eagles have the NFL's top run defense, Rams coach Sean McVay could try to counter that by having Goff throw to Gurley even more than usual. That would allow the talented young back to get the ball in space and more or less neutralize the Eagles defensive front, which has been the main reason behind their success against the run. Honestly, that scares the hell out of me.
OVER.
For the first time since their Week 2 loss to the Chiefs, the Eagles defense failed to record a turnover in their Week 13 loss to the Seahawks. They're 10-0 this season when forcing at least one turnover, but since Doug Pederson's arrival, they're just 1-7* in games when losing the turnover battle (4-2 in games when it's tied).
The Rams don't turn it over a ton, but that doesn't mean the Eagles can't hit the over here. Once again, however, it comes down to how well they do forcing the Rams to throw. Last week against the Seahawks, Wilson threw just 31 times, his fewest since the Seahawks blew out the Colts in Week 2. And in the Eagles' only other loss (to the Chiefs), Alex Smith threw just 28 times, his second-fewest attempts of the season. As we said, that's also the only two games this season in which the Birds failed to record a turnover. I think they'll get back on track against the Rams. After all, they're still averaging close to two per game this season.
OVER.
There are A LOT of Eagles fans going to this game on Sunday – and the rest of us sitting back home in the snow are extremely jealous. I don't know if the crowd is going to be as Eagles-heavy as it was the last time they were in Los Angeles to face the Chargers, but if FOX is sending out casting calls for Rams fans, you better believe it's going to sound closer to a home game for the Birds than what they experienced in Seattle a week ago. Whether or not there actually are more Philly fans in attendance might not matter; it only matters how it sounds.
OVER.
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