October 25, 2016
We have no new obituaries this week, as the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears remain the only teams in the graveyard. Let's just get right to it.
Case Keenum is second in the NFL in interceptions (with 10 of them), trailing only the Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick. Against the Giants in London last Sunday, he was straight awful, throwing four interceptions and losing a game the Rams' defense set up the offense to win. The Rams are not going to overcome the assortment of teams vying for a wildcard in the NFC, and they're certainly not anywhere near as talented overall as the Seahawks or Cardinals within their own division. By that logic, my feeling is that the Rams are the least likely team in the NFC (graveyard teams aside) to make the playoffs.
The Rams have their bye this week, and then they'll face the Carolina Panthers the following week. If they lose that game, they're done, and Jeff Fisher can recycle his 7-9 speech again next training camp.
The bye week has become something of a storyline for the Eagles this season. The Birds were rolling with a 3-0 record, before a usually welcomed bye week may have helped impede their momentum. If you buy the whole "momentum thing," the Eagles may have been beneficiaries of the bye week slowing the previously undefeated Vikings' momentum this past Sunday after they had their bye.
The Panthers, on the other hand, may be on the other side of the argument. They went into their bye last week with a dreadful 1-5 record coming off a Super Bowl appearance. A season ago, the Panthers led the NFL with a turnover differential of +20. This season, they're second-worst in the NFL, at -8.
This week the Panthers play a very good Cardinals team at home. If they can't take care of business after having some time to figure things out, they're done.
Drew Brees owns six of the top 15 single-season passing yard marks in NFL history.
| Rank | Year | Player | Yds |
| 1 | 2013 | Peyton Manning, Broncos | 5,477 |
| 2 | 2011 | Drew Brees, Saints | 5,476 |
| 3 | 2011 | Tom Brady, Patriots | 5,235 |
| 4 | 2012 | Drew Brees, Saints | 5,177 |
| 5 | 2013 | Drew Brees, Saints | 5,162 |
| 6 | 1984 | Dan Marino, Dolphins | 5,084 |
| 7 | 2008 | Drew Brees, Saints | 5,069 |
| 8 | 2011 | Matthew Stafford, Lions | 5,038 |
| 9 | 2012 | Matthew Stafford, Lions | 4,967 |
| T-10 | 2014 | Drew Brees, Saints | 4,952 |
| T-10 | 2014 | Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers | 4,952 |
| 12 | 2011 | Eli Manning, Giants | 4,933 |
| 13 | 2012 | Tony Romo, Cowboys | 4,903 |
| 14 | 2015 | Drew Brees, Saints | 4,870 |
| 15 | 2001 | Kurt Warner, Rams | 4,830 |
This year, Brees is averaging 350.2 passing yards per game. If he keeps up that pace, he'll have 5603 passing yards, which would be a new single-single record.
And yet, the Saints are 2-4, because, you know, defense.
Three weeks ago, the Buccaneers were 1-3 with the worst point differential in the NFL. Two games later, after wins over the Panthers and 49ers, they're back to .500 with a 2-0 division record and only a half-game behind the Falcons.
And not only that, but four of their first six games have been on the road. The Bucs will now begin a three-game home stretch against the Raiders, Falcons and Bears.
This comes as a bit of a surprise, but the Giants are dead last in the NFL in time of possession:
| Rk | Team | ToP/G |
| 1 | Arizona Cardinals | 33:37 |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys | 33:09 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 32:16 |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | 31:52 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 31:42 |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks | 31:41 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 31:36 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31:27 |
| 9 | New York Jets | 31:26 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | 31:19 |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | 31:13 |
| 12 | Carolina Panthers | 31:02 |
| 13 | Washington Redskins | 31:01 |
| 14 | San Diego Chargers | 30:53 |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 30:42 |
| 16 | Kansas City Chiefs | 30:39 |
| 17 | New England Patriots | 30:28 |
| 18 | New Orleans Saints | 30:22 |
| 19 | Houston Texans | 30:18 |
| 20 | Oakland Raiders | 30:04 |
| 21 | Los Angeles Rams | 30:04 |
| 22 | Atlanta Falcons | 30:01 |
| 23 | Detroit Lions | 29:54 |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 29:47 |
| 25 | Denver Broncos | 29:25 |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | 28:53 |
| 27 | Miami Dolphins | 28:06 |
| 28 | Buffalo Bills | 27:32 |
| 29 | Chicago Bears | 27:24 |
| 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 27:15 |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | 26:10 |
| 32 | New York Giants | 25:57 |
They have faced 500 plays on defense so far this season, and have only run 428 plays on offense. A disparity of 72 plays after seven games is pretty significant. As you might imagine, the Giants are not winning on third down. They are converting just 35 percent of their third down attempts offensively, while opponents are converting 42 percent of their third downs.
The NFC East has the best point differential in the NFL:
| Division | Point differential |
| NFC East | 109 |
| AFC West | 72 |
| AFC East | 51 |
| NFC North | 4 |
| NFC West | -33 |
| NFC South | -35 |
| AFC South | -83 |
| AFC North | -85 |
But it's all the Eagles and Cowboys:
| NFC East | Point differential |
| Eagles | +68 |
| Cowboys | +52 |
| Redskins | -3 |
| Giants | -8 |
The Redskins have a weird scheduling quirk upcoming in which they'll play the Bengals in London, followed by two home games (Vikings, Packers), followed by three consecutive road games (Cowboys, Cardinals, Eagles).
With a three-point lead and 3:41 left on the clock in the fourth quarter and the ball at the Chargers' 40-yard line, the Falcons had 1st and 10. And then...
False start (at home), another false start (AT HOME!), and then an interception.
That's the way the Chargers tend lose games, but the Falcons out-losered them. Atlanta will try to stop the bleeding this week at home against the Packers.
Matthew Stafford's numbers the last three games:
| Opponent | Comp-Att (comp %) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Rating |
| Eagles | 19-25 (76%) | 180 (7.2) | 3-0 | 135.0 |
| Rams | 23-31 (74.2%) | 270 (8.71) | 4-0 | 139.8 |
| Redskins | 18-29 (62.1%) | 266 (9.17) | 1-0 | 103.5 |
| TOTAL | 60-85 (70.6%) | 716 (8.4) | 8-0 | 127.4 |
And not only that, he has led game-winning drives in all three games.
Those were all home games. It will be interesting to see if Stafford and the Lions can prove they're for real on the road the next two weeks in Houston and Minnesota.
The Eagles are fifth in yards allowed per game (307), third in points per game allowed (14.7), tied for first in sacks per game (3.3), and third in takeaways per game (2).
The Packers don't have running backs, and so, Aaron Rodgers attempted 56 passes in what was a comfortable win over the Bears. Wide receiver Ty Montgomery was the Packers' leading rusher, with 60 yards on nine carries. WR Randall Cobb even chipped in 21 rushing yards on five carries. Here's some free advice: If someone offers you a Packers receiver in your fantasy league, strongly consider it because Green Bay is going to be airing it out.
Bruce Arians is the biggest baby in sports.
Bruce Arians is not happy https://t.co/fHRZh2gYO8
— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 24, 2016
The Vikings got exposed last Sunday. Their offensive tackles are an abomination and they're going to struggle protecting the quarterback all season long. Furthermore, they can't run the football, their weapons in the passing game are mediocre at best, and their quarterback is Sam Bradford. This is a way below average offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings' defense is outstanding. As we noted in our "10 awards" post, here is what the Vikings have done to opposing quarterbacks this season:
| QB | Comp-Att (Comp %) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Rating |
| Marcus Mariota | 25-41 (61%) | 271 (6.6) | 2-1 | 86.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 20-36 (55.6%) | 213 (5.9) | 1-1 | 70.7 |
| Cam Newton | 21-35 (60%) | 262 (7.5) | 0-3 | 47.6 |
| Eli Manning | 25-45 (55.6%) | 261 (5.8) | 0-1 | 63.3 |
| Brock Osweiler | 19-42 (45.2%) | 184 (4.4) | 1-1 | 56.1 |
| Carson Wentz | 16-28 (57.1%) | 138 (4.9) | 1-2 | 52.4 |
The Vikings' defense is great, but it's probably not so good that it can overcome its serious offensive deficiencies.
A week ago, the Vikings looked like a stone-cold lock for the playoffs, and perhaps even a No. 1 seed. I'm not so sure the playoffs are even a lock right now. There are nine teams in the NFC with at least four wins, and none of them have a losing record in conference play.
Yeah, we'll be talking a little bit about this team this week. Let's pace ourselves.
The Seahawks, like the Vikings, have major offensive line issues. Here's what Tyrann Mathieu had to say about the Seahawks' offensive line, via old friend Sheil Kapadia:
"Well, we've never had two edge rushers like Chandler [Jones] and Markus [Golden]," he said. "Let's call it what it is -- their offensive line is not that good. So we felt like we could get pressure on them, which we did a bunch of times tonight."
That's not really even trash talk. For anyone who saw the Seahawks-Cardinals game on Sunday Night Football, you'll know that Mathieu is pretty much just stating the obvious.
Still, while the Seahawks are built similarly to the Vikings in that they have a great defense, but an offensive line that is neither pass protecting nor opening up holes in the running game all that well, I'll take Russell Wilson over Sam Bradford any day of the week.
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