April 27, 2015
The Phillies took two out of three against the Atlanta Braves over the weekend at Citizens Bank Park with a 5-4 victory on Sunday, but games that could have a much greater impact on the franchise's future took place in other MLB ballparks.
On Saturday night in Milwaukee, St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright barely made it out of the batter’s box while trying to run out a routine pop-up. There still isn’t any official word on the severity of the injury, but it’s looking like the lanky right-hander with the filthy hook — Carlos Beltran and Mets fans still occasionally wake up in a cold sweat over it — will miss the entire season:
Sources: Expectation is that #STLCards’ Wainwright is done for season with Achilles injury. Has not yet undergone MRI.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 26, 2015
On Sunday afternoon in Baltimore, Boston Red Sox starter Wade Miley got shelled, surrendering seven runs through only 2.1 innings as the Orioles clobbered the Sawx. The final score of 18-7 resembled more like that of a Ravens-Patriots tilt (with Baltimore winning of course because Joe Flacco is ELITE). Through 18 games, Boston’s starting rotation is performing to the low level many thought it would entering the year with a 5.35 ERA, which ranks 29th out of 30 teams. Don’t forget that number includes three games against the punchless Phillies’ lineup.
Neither of these developments guarantees anything. What they do serve as is a reminder that barring injury or an unexpected drop in performance, Cole Hamels isn’t becoming any less attractive to contenders this season.
Last week, Buster Olney mentioned (Insider Only) that rival evaluators believe the Phillies’ ace wants out, which isn’t surprising at all considering he already expressed that sentiment during spring training. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, another plugged-in national baseball writer with the Sawx right in his backyard, wrote in his Sunday column that there has been no recent movement on the Hamels front:
There have been no calls on Hamels regarding a trade since the last week of March, according to a Phillies source. Teams appear to be watching their own staffs to project a need. That likely won’t come until mid-May, after a few turns in the rotation. Hamels got off to a slow start but has started to look like the ace he is.
Over the past year or so, Ruben Amaro, Jr. and the Phillies front office have shown a willingness to wait for a Hamels offer that blows them away. This, despite the rest of the league playing the role of Randolph and Mortimer Duke once they realize the orange crop reports are normal. If you haven’t had the pleasure of seeing “Trading Places,” the analogy means that other teams want the Phillies to sell Hamels now:
Many Rival evaluators find PHI asks on their players to be greatly overpriced within the context of the current market, as they did in July.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 19, 2014
Amaro’s gamble has logic, even if it certainly carries risk: As the 162-game season moves along, pitching staffs suffer from attrition whether due to injuries or plain ol’ ineffectiveness. When contending teams have a glaring need in their starting rotation, they should in theory become more willing to pony up in order to acquire an ace. If Hamels messes up his arm or has a 2009-ish season, then Amaro could be left with nothing at all. Call it the O-Town strategy.
Losing Wainwright is a huge blow to the Cardinals, a six-win pitcher in 2014 that has finished top-three in Cy Young voting on four separate occasions. Know who else was a six-win pitcher in 2014? Cole Hamels. St. Louis isn’t desperate yet and they’re also the rare team that could still have success while replacing Wainwright from within their system.
The Sawx are more likely trade partners, due to both the monster ("monstah" for those from Massachusetts) hole they have in the rotation and a deep farm system. Cafardo reported earlier in the year that Boston’s offer for Hamels consisted of mostly major leaguers, which sounds like something Amaro should turn down unless Mookie Betts is one of those major leaguers, which he isn't.
Interestingly enough, a group of Arizona State students ran a statistical analysis and come up with Boston as the "best" (most beneficial for both sides) trade partner in any potential Hamels deal. They settled on a package which is probably far more costly than the Sawx are currently willing to give up, but maybe they move off that stance as the season moves along.
Or not. Risk, reward.
