December 02, 2022
Will Jalen Hurts and a well-rounded Eagles offense be enough to overwhelm Tennessee? Or will star running back Derrick Henry run right through Jonathan Gannon's passive defense?
In an occasion that's been extremely rare this season, our writers aren't unanimous in our predictions. Five of us are going Eagles, the other two are going Titans.
Our own Kyle Neubeck was even one player away from going with the Titans too:
I'm half serious when I say Jordan Davis' return is the only thing stopping me from picking the Titans in this game. The thought of Philadelphia trying to deal with Derrick Henry while less than full strength in the middle of the line is enough to send chills down your spine. But I think the Eagles should be able to keep Henry from completely blowing their doors off, and though they're a slightly better scoring defense than the Eagles, they're liable to get beat through the air. Expect A.J. Brown to make a statement and the Birds to pull away. [PhillyVoice]
How's everyone else feeling about Week 13 and maybe the Eagles' toughest test yet? Let's take a look:
• E.J. Smith, Inquirer.com: In their toughest matchup of the season against a Titans team that can exploit the Eagles' weaknesses, E.J. Smith knows this will be a hard-fought affair, but ultimately has the home team prevailing:
This is the type of game that will help determine where the Eagles rank among the upper echelon of the NFL. If the game were in Tennessee, I’d likely go with the Titans. Since it’s in the Linc, I expect a close, grimy game between two teams that have formed an identity as bruisers and bullies that ends with a narrow Eagles win. [The Inquirer, $]
• The Athletic: There are other factors to consider, but overall, Vic Tafur likes the prospects of an A.J. Brown revenge game.
The Eagles just ran for 363 yards against the Packers — the eighth-most by any team in the Super Bowl era. They won’t need to do that this week, as while the Titans have seemingly overachieved this season, their secondary has been suspect. They just got torched by Tee Higgins, and here comes A.J. Brown against his former team.
But the Titans should be able to run against the Eagles, and if Philadelphia stacks the box, Ryan Tannehill does have some decent targets all of a sudden with the resurgent Treylon Burks, Austin Hooper and Robert Woods — who looks like he might be getting his legs back after offseason knee surgery. Plus, the Eagles’ secondary is vulnerable.
Hopefully, Mike Vrabel won’t springboard off this win to Ohio State.
The pick: Titans +5.5 [The Athletic, $]
• Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: An extremely close toss-up for Rosenthal, but one that comes out Eagles, 27-24.
I love this game. There may not be two tougher fronts than Tennessee's defensive line and Philadelphia's offensive line, which square off in this bout. The Eagles' boffo running attack also faces its biggest test -- and the same is true for their leaky run defense. I'm fascinated to see how the Titans try to game plan for Jalen Hurts, while Ryan Tannehill can move the ball on this Philly defense. With the way both teams are playing right now, it looks like a toss-up. Take the home team. [NFL.com]
• Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: A close one for Prisco too, but also one the Eagles can just outlast.
This is a game matching two teams that want to run the football. The Eagles are coming off an outstanding rushing effort against the Packers, but the Titans defense is much better. The Titans will counter with Derrick Henry running into an Eagles defense that can't stop the run. This game might be over quickly with all the runs. Eagles take it, but Titans will hang around.
Pick: Eagles 24, Titans 23 [CBS Sports]
• Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Jalen Hurts' attacking through the air may be the route the Eagles need to go offensively, otherwise, Kapadia can see the Titans pulling off an upset. They'll cover the spread at least.
An underrated aspect of Jalen Hurts’ 2022 season: his accuracy as a passer. Next Gen Stats measures the likelihood of a completion on every pass, using tracking data for how long the pass is, how open the receiver is, whether the quarterback is pressured, and other factors. It then measures a quarterback’s actual completion percentage to what’s expected. By this completion percentage above expectation metric, Hurts ranks third among current starters.
The Eagles will likely need Hurts to make plays through the air, given that the Titans defense ranks first in rushing DVOA. Tennessee is coming off of a tough loss to the Bengals, but Derrick Henry should find success against an Eagles run defense that has had some issues. I think the Titans keep it close and wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled off the upset.
The pick: Titans (+5.5). [The Ringer]
• ProFootballTalk: A split-decision for PFT.
MDS’s take: I like the way the Titans are playing and I’m tempted to pick them to pull the upset, but I think it will be a close game in the fourth quarter and Jalen Hurts will do just enough to put the Eagles over the top.
MDS’s pick: Eagles 27, Titans 24.
Florio’s take: The Titans are too good to lose two in a row, even when they’re facing the best team in the NFC on their own field.
Florio’s pick: Titans 28, Eagles 23. [PFT, NBC Sports]
• Bill Bender, The Sporting News: A prediction for the A.J. Brown revenge game on one side:
It’s the A.J. Brown game. The Eagles’ star receiver was acquired in a trade with Tennessee, and he has been a difference-maker for Jalen Hurts. Brown has put up modest numbers through the last four weeks (14 catches, 162 yards, 2 TDs). He clears 100 yards in this one. Tennessee keeps it close with a bounce-back game for Derrick Henry, but the Eagles stay hot at home.
Pick: Eagles 27, Titans 23 [The Sporting News]
• Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: A pick for the upset of the week on the other:
The Titans present a tricky matchup for the Eagles on both sides of the ball because of their relentless power rushing attack with Derrick Henry and their stout run defense. The Eagles will work with Jalen Hurts and the downfield passing game well with a motivated revenge game from former Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown. But look for a hammering Henry to play spoiler and Mike Vrabel's team sneaks away with another physical battle of attrition.
Pick: Titans win 24-20. [The Sporting News]
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