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May 06, 2024

NHL Draft Lottery: The Flyers' (slim) odds at a top pick

The Flyers, who still need to stock up on young talent, can only jump up as high as second overall if they win Tuesday night's lottery.

Flyers NHL
Flyers-NHL-Draft-2023-Oliver-Bonk.jpg Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports

Flyers execs on last year's NHL Draft stage after drafting defenseman Oliver Bonk late in the first round.

The 2024 NHL Draft order will be locked in on Tuesday night when the league holds its annual draft lottery while in the thick of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

The Flyers, after stalling out and thus missing out on the postseason down the stretch, will have another shot at jumping up the board in pursuit of high-end, future talent. But because of recent format changes to the draft lottery, they can only jump so high. 

Starting in 2022, the league revised the rules so that lottery teams could only jump up a maximum of 10 spots if the ping pong balls fell their way. 

So that means only the teams in spots 1-11 are eligible for the first overall pick, which also means that the Flyers, whose 38-33-11 record (87 points) that put them 12th on the board, are not. 

The highest they'll be able to jump is to second overall (a 2.5 percent chance). They could land elsewhere in the draft order as well, like up to third overall or as far back as 14th, but that depends on which team wins the first drawing and the results of the second, which will narrow the field. 

The more than likely probability: The Flyers will stay put at 12th, which is expected to put them in range of notable forwards such as Konsta HeleniusCole Eiserman, and possibly Tij Iginla.

Nothing is ever a given though, especially not around the Philadelphia Flyers, so here are the lottery odds for the first drawing going into Tuesday night per the league:

ChancesTeam  Lottery Odds
San Jose Sharks 18.5% 
Chicago Blackhawks 13.5% 
Anaheim Ducks 11.5% 
Columbus Blue Jackets 9.5% 
Montreal Canadiens 8.5% 
Utah 7.5% 
Ottawa Senators 6.5% 
Seattle Kraken 6.0% 
Calgary Flames 5.0% 
10  New Jersey Devils3.5% 
11 Buffalo Sabres 3.0% 
12 Philadelphia Flyers 2.5% 
13 Minnesota Wild 2.0% 
14 Pittsburgh Penguins* 1.5% 
15 Detroit Red Wings 0.5% 
16 St. Louis Blues 0.5% 

*Can be transferred to San Jose; top-10 protected

While the Flyers likely won't have the benefit of a high draft selection, which is advantageous to a rebuild, they will have the benefit of two first-round selections for the second year in a row and possibly two second-round picks to work with also. 

They'll have the same setup for the 2025 draft, too – two firsts and two seconds – as a result of the Cutter Gauthier trade with Anaheim and the deadline deal of Sean Walker to Colorado. 

Last year at the draft down in Nashville, the Flyers used their two firsts to pick up top prospect Matvei Michkov and defenseman Oliver Bonk, who projects to be a talented two-way blueliner.

The NHL Draft Lottery will begin at 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday (May 7) and the NHL Draft will run from June 28-29 in Vegas.

MORE: So about Matvei Michkov and his NHL timeline

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