December 03, 2020
For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 13 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread. All the below spreads are courtesy of the consensus Week 13 odds at TheLines.com.
Browns at Titans (-6): The Browns are 8-3 with a -21 point differential. I was curious how many teams have made the playoffs with a worse point differential, and apparently, there are nine in the Super Bowl era:
| Team | Record | Point differential |
| 1989 Steelers | 9-7 | -61 |
| 2017 Bills | 9-7 | -57 |
| 1998 Cardinals | 9-7 | -53 |
| 1978 Falcons | 9-7 | -50 |
| 2016 Texans | 9-7 | -49 |
| 1989 Oilers | 9-7 | -47 |
| 1994 Bears | 9-7 | -36 |
| 1982 Rams | 5-4 (strike) | -35 |
| 2012 Colts | 11-5 | -30 |
Anyway, the Browns aren't good, and they're going to get smoked by the Steelers or Chiefs in the wildcard round of the playoffs.
Bengals at Dolphins (-11.5): I don't like Brandon Allen's chances against this swarming Dolphins defense.
Jaguars at Vikings (-10): Gardner Minshew is healthy, but the Jaguars are still starting Mike Glennon, lol. I respect the tanking efforts! Also, I bet you didn't know this about Mike Glennon:
Fact: If Mike Glennon's neck and head were a free-standing structure, it would be the third largest on Earth: pic.twitter.com/5RU9geY7Bd
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) October 8, 2014
It's true.
Saints (-2.5) at Falcons: Interesting line. The Saints easily handled the Falcons with Taysom Hill at QB two weeks ago, and I'm not sure why one would expect much different now. Does Vegas like the Falcons now because they blew out the Raiders last week? That can't be it, can it?
I'll gladly lay 2.5 points on a team that is good, badly needs a win to stay in position for the 1 seed, and is playing a bad team.
Lions at Bears (-3): My picks feel a little chalky this week, so let's just throw in this random, meaningless upset.
Raiders (-8) at Jets: A look at the percentage chance the Jets win any of their final five games, via ESPN's matchup predictor:
That Week 17 against the cheaters is interesting. If the Jets and Jaguars finish with the same record, the Jags will have the No. 1 overall pick on a strength of schedule tiebreaker. If the Patri*ts are mathematically eliminated heading into that Week 17 matchup, and a Jets win could mean that they have the same record as the Jags, I can absolutely see Bill Belichick purposely throwing that game so the Jets don't get the No. 1 pick.
Colts (-3.5) at Texans: According to fivethirtyeight.com, if the Colts win this game, they have a 73 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they lose, it's down to 32 percent. Meanwhile, the Texans have nothing to play for, though they have been playing better of late. I'll side with the team with playoff aspirations on the line, with little conviction.
Rams (-3) at Cardinals: When I first saw this line, I figured I'd be all over the Cardinals, until I saw the matchup history. Since 2017, the Rams are 6-0 against the Cardinals with a combined score of 195-56. The Rams scored at least 30 points in every one of those matchups. I understand that this isn't the same Cardinals team, but when one team owns another to that degree, those trends are hard to break.
Giants at Seahawks (-10): As we noted in the hierarchy this week, the Seahawks have one game down on the easiest four-game stretch I've ever seen, three to go:
Eagles at Packers (-8.5): In each of the last two weeks, the Eagles have gotten garbage-time touchdowns to make final scores appear misleading. They lost 22-17 to the Browns, and 23-17 to the Seahawks, even though clearly those games weren't that close.
It has been the defense that has kept the Eagles at least semi-competitive, but it only feels like a matter of time before that dam breaks as well. The Eagles will face a Packers team led by Aaron Rodgers, who in my opinion is probably juuuuust a notch below Patrick Mahomes for the NFL's MVP through the first 12 weeks of the season.
Rodgers leads the NFL in TD passes (33), TD percentage (8.7% of his pass attempts result in TD), and QB rating (117.6). Conversely, Carson Wentz leads the NFL in INTs (16), sacks taken (46), and he has the second-most fumbles (10). Wentz actually has five more INTs this season (again, 15) than Rodgers has in his last three seasons combined (10).
In two of the Eagles' three wins (against the 49ers and Giants), they produced three turnovers. In their other win (vs. Dallas), they got two turnovers, and were otherwise unchallenged by Ben DiNucci. In this matchup, Rodgers is a quarterback who just doesn't make many mistakes. Only the Titans and Chiefs have turned it over fewer times in 2020. This may sound like remedial analysis, but because the Eagles' offense is so broken, they need their opponents to screw up in order to win games, and that just isn't going to happen this week in Green Bay.
The Packers are chasing the Saints for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, which is more meaningful this year since only one team will get a bye. They will not be overlooking the Eagles, who beat them in Green Bay last year. I think this one gets really ugly on both sides of the ball.
Patri*ts at Chargers (-1): The Patri*ts were beneficiaries of an awful personal foul called on the Cardinals last week, that enabled them to kick a late field goal for the win.
"Here’s the bottom line, it’s not a foul… It’s just a good, hard, legal hit."@DeanBlandino breaks down the unnecessary roughness penalty called on Isaiah Simmons for the hit on Cam Newton. pic.twitter.com/VHSqCW5A3M
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 29, 2020
Ultimately, the Patri*ts are better off losing these games, because they're not going to make the playoffs, and they're only hurting their chances of selecting a good quarterback prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Broncos at Chiefs (-13.5): Hey the Broncos will have actual quarterbacks this week! Won't matter. The Chiefs swept the Broncos last season, with a combined score of 53-9. Earlier this season they beat the Broncos 43-16. They've also won 10 straight over Denver.
Football Team at Steelers (-8): The Football Team has beaten up on some bad teams this season, as their four wins have come against the Eagles, Bengals, and the Any Dalton-led Cowboys twice.
While probably the best team in the NFC East, this game will serve as a reminder that they still aren't good.
Bills at 49ers (-1): Ooh, why is this line Bills (+1)? What am I missing? Whatever. I'll bite.
Cowboys at Ravens (-7): This game will be played on Tuesday, which is fun. I guess we'll see how many Ravens players come back from the COVID list before this game is played, but there's almost no scenario in which I'd pick the Cowboys.
Byes: Buccaneers, Panthers.
• Picks against the spread: Saints (-2.5), Packers (-8), Bills (+1).
• Eagles picks: 6-4-1
• 2020 season, straight up: 113-61-1 (0.649)
• 2020 season, ATS: 32-26-2 (0.550)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 6 years, ATS: 233-187-11 (0.553)
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