December 30, 2016
Michael Perez/AP
Relax, Doug, you're safe. I mean, not from the fans or the media. I mean your job.
After a strong (and highly unlikely) 3-0 start, Doug Pederson was getting mentioned as a potential NFL Coach of the Year candidate. Over the last few months, things have not gone as well, yada yada yada, and if you've turned on Philly sports talk radio, you'd think that ol' Doug was the dumbest human being to ever walk the planet.
Much of the vitriol has been directed at Pederson's play calling and in-game strategy, which was, of course, was a never-ending source of discussion during Philly's marriage with Andy Reid, Pederson's mentor.
Criticism of Pederson has become absurd. For example, here's a list of some of the things he has been blamed for (in chronological order). We'll lump the complaints into the following color-coded buckets:
Red = "Captain Hindsight" analysis.
Blue = Nitpicky play-call micromanagement.
Green = Just shut up.
Purple = Valid, in my opinion.
• Ryan Mathews' fumble against the Lions: Running backs are taught as far back as Pop Warner to carry the ball in their outside arm, but when Mathews fumbled late in the regulation in Detroit, it was Pederson's fault for calling a run to the outside. Never mind that the Eagles had successfully converted third and fourth down outside runs to Mathews earlier in the season. Nobody complained about outside runs on those occasions.
• Pederson's swing pass to Darren Sproles on third down against the Cowboys: This was truly a bad play call. Facing 3rd and 8 at the Cowboys' 30-yard line, Carson Wentz threw a swing pass well behind the line of scrimmage to Darren Sproles that Sean Lee blew up for a loss of six, bringing the Eagles to the fringe of Caleb Sturgis' field goal range.
• The ensuing decision to punt instead of attempting the long field goal: The ensuing decision by Pederson to punt instead of attempting a long field goal was ill-advised. The Eagles were up by seven with 7:17 to go. A made 53-yard field goal would have put them up two scores in a game in which Sturgis had previously hit a 50+ yarder. Instead, the Eagles punted to the Cowboys 10, for a net of 26 yards. The Cowboys then marched right down the field and tied the game with a TD. Pederson later admitted he wished he were more aggressive in that situation.
• The decision not to call timeouts late against the Cowboys: On 2nd and 10 with 33 seconds left in regulation, the Eagles sacked Dak Prescott for a loss of 10. Instead of calling timeout with the Cowboys facing 3rd and 20 at their own 18-yard line, the Eagles let them run out the clock. They should have called timeout, stopped the ensuing (likely) give-up run, and forced the punt. Maybe you get a shank. Maybe your top-ranked special teams units make a play. But don't let them run out the clock, Doug. The fourth quarter of the Cowboys game was probably Pederson's worst moment of the season.
• Pederson's aggressiveness against the Giants: Pederson went for it on fourth down on four occasions in the Eagles' first meeting against the Giants, converting just one of those opportunities. Naturally, because they didn't work, Pederson was roundly criticized, although to be fair, I didn't exactly love the idea of trying to run it with Carson Wentz on one of them. Still, I'll take this opportunity to make the point that when Pederson was 5/5 on his first five fourth down conversion attempts on the season, you know who criticized those decisions?
(Jeopardy music playing)
That's correct... Literally nobody.
Some fourth down attempts are going to go your way. Some won't. Personally, my preference for a coach is to be aggressive when the reward is seven points vs. three, or extending the drive at the opponent's 40 vs. having a 30-yard net punt. But that's just me.
• Pederson's challenge of a Packers' two-yard reception on first down: The Packers were awarded a two-yard completion on first down on the fringe of field goal range, on a play in which the receiver clearly didn't make the catch. While it was maybe a little annoying that Green Bay got credit for the catch, it wasn't worth a challenge. Pederson challenged, won, and backed the Packers up two yards. This was a poor use of a challenge. Pederson defended the decision initially in his post-game press conference, but in his next presser two days later, he admitted it was the wrong move after thinking on it.
• Wentz had 63 pass attempts against the Bengals, and is on pace to break the team record for pass attempts in a season: Pederson has been blamed for having a pass-heavy offense with a rookie in place at quarterback, a formula that I agree is not conducive to winning. You know what also isn't conducive to winning? Falling behind early and needing to pass a lot to catch up. The best example of this season in which Wentz attempted a high number of passses was, of course, against the Bengals, when Wentz threw 63 passes. However, when you're down 19-0 in the first half and 29-0 in the third quarter, it's not like you're going to out in the second half looking to establish the run.
59.4 percent of the Eagles' plays this season are passes. That's high, right? Nope. It's the 18th-highest in the league, meaning that 17 teams are more pass-happy than the Eagles.
• Eagles should have given Matt Tobin help against Ryan Kerrigan on the final drive against the Redskins: With the Eagles playing their fourth player of the season at RT in the fourth quarter against the Redskins, the Eagles were moving the ball down the field, trying to drive for the win. That's when Redskins pass rusher Ryan Kerrigan ran right around Matt Tobin with ease for a sack-fumble recovered by the Skins, sealing the game. Pederson was criticized for not having a running back help block Kerrigan. Never mind that Tobin suffered a sprained MCL on the previous play, didn't tell anyone he was hurt, and could barely move on that fateful play. Criticism of Pederson for that play is absolute highest order of Captain Hindsight nonsense.
• The end-around to Nelson Agholor against the Ravens: On fourth down in Baltimore, the Eagles ran an end around to Nelson Agholor. The play call should have worked, as Agholor had an inside lane early in his run that would have picked up the first down, and then at the end of the run, he accidentally stepped out of bounds short of the sticks before trying to dive past safety Eric Weddle.
If there is one thing Agholor has kinda-sorta (I stress "kinda-sorta") showed he can do, it's run after the catch. He just doesn't get many run-after-catch opportunities because he doesn't catch much. This was a chance to let Agholor make a play that didn't require him to run a route, get open, and then catch the football. I find it hard to blame Pederson here. He gave Agholor a fairly simple task on a play call that should have worked. Agholor merely proved there are no bounds to his ability to fail.
If you'd like to criticize Agholor's presence on the field at all at this point, I have no issue with you on that.
• The decision to go for two against the Ravens: Pederson (rightfully) felt that his team stood a less than 50-50 chance of beating the Ravens in overtime, citing the fact that his team was the underdog heading into the contest, and that the Ravens have the best kicker on Earth in Justin Tucker. Both were valid points, although he probably should have just kept the former to himself. It was perfectly reasonable for Pederson to go for it in that situation, especially considering they were already essentially eliminated from the playoffs.
• The play call itself on the two-point conversion against the Ravens: As he stated in follow-up press conferences, Pederson was sure the Ravens were going to zero-blitz him (send more people than the offense can block), which they did. He felt that a run play against that look would have resulted in a loss of yardage (as it probably would have), despite the Eagles' previous success with the run earlier in the game.
That led to a reasonable (although awkwardly delivered) explanation by Pederson that the Eagles knew the Ravens would zero-blitz them, and the Ravens knew the Eagles would know that and that the Ravens knew that the Eagles would pass as a result because that's all you can really do there. Did you follow all of that? I'll wait while you read it twice.
Anyway, if you go back and really listen to the conversation as a whole, everything Pederson says makes sense. If you cut up a few sentences (like both major sports radio stations in the area did), you can easy make him sound like a buffoon.
The reality is that Pederson had a great play call on that two-point conversion. He got his best receiver lined up on the Ravens' fourth best corner on a slant. The play likely would have worked, as Matthews got good position on his route, however, Ravens linebacker C.J. Mosley made a great play, getting a finger on the throw, which fell harmlessly incomplete.
If Mosley doesn't get a finger on the throw, Pederson gets a golf clap. Because Mosley did, Pederson got lambasted for seven straight days on the radio and in print.
• Carson Wentz lead-blocking on a double reverse against the Giants: Shortly after Wentz returned from the locker room, where he was being evaluated for a concussion, Pederson called a double reverse that called for Wentz to be a lead blocker. This, I agree, was ill-advised, although I certainly doubt that Pederson wanted Wentz diving head first at a defender's knees.
Unquestionably, Pederson is far from perfect. To be clear, we're not trying to say that he is some kind of golden god. Pederson was not the Eagles' first choice to be their head coach, and he certainly wasn't at the top of the fans' list. As such, plays that Pederson calls that don't work and games that are lost are being scrutinized to an unfair, and often illogical degree.
So then, what has Doug done that has actually been good, you might ask? In my view, there have been clear signs of encouragement.
The Eagles' original plan was for rookie quarterback Carson Wentz to not even suit up on game day, instead standing on the sidelines while Sam Bradford started and Chase Daniel backed him up. That all changed quickly after Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a gruesome leg injury, ending his season. The Vikings panicked, trading first- and fourth-round picks to the Eagles for Bradford, vaulting Wentz to the starting spot eight days before Week 1 of the regular season.
All throughout OTAs, minicamp, training camp, and the preseason, Wentz had mainly worked with the third string offense, although he received almost as many reps as the starter, an oddity in an NFL camp. During the preseason itself, Wentz played in just one game before breaking a rib. He did not play at all the rest of the preseason.
And yet, when Wentz (who I should again remind you was playing at an FCS school in North Dakota this time last year) was called upon to start Week 1, he was ready. He knew the offense, he made checks at the line, he read opposing defenses, and his decision-making (early on, anyway) was excellent.
Obviously, a great deal of credit should go to Wentz himself for being ready, but what is often overlooked is that Pederson and his staff got him prepared as well.
There's an argument to be made that the Eagles have the worst skill position players in the NFL. At a minimum, I think we'd all agree that they're bottom five? Yes? OK.
Meanwhile, in the wake of Lane Johnson's suspension for performance enhancing drugs, the Eagles were forced to shuffle their offensive line all season long. The Eagles got so deep into their reserves along their offensive line that five different players got playing time at right tackle this season.
And yet, despite the poor play from the skill position players, and the makeshift offensive line, and the fact that a rookie from North Dakota State was calling the signals, the Eagles' offense really wasn't that bad.
During the Chip Kelly era, I liked to use "per drive" stats as a more fair comparison for the Eagles' offensive and defensive units when compared to the rest of the league. By "per drive," I mean "points per drive" and "yards per drive." Because Chip Kelly ran an up-tempo offense, his offense had far more drives per game than the typical NFL team, while his defenses faced more drives than normal. As a result, the more traditional "per game" stats were wildly skewed favorably for his offense, and negatively for his defense, simply because there were more chances for his offense (as well as the opposing offense) to put up gaudy numbers.
A comparison of Kelly's "per drive" stats ranking in 2015 vs. Pederson's "per drive" stats ranking in 2016:
| Per drive stats | Yards per drive (NFL rank) | Points per drive (NFL rank) | T.O.P. per drive (NFL rank) |
| Kelly - 2015 | 23 | 22 | 32 |
| Pederson - 2016 | 18 | 19 | 3 |
Pederson improved the offense significantly from a year ago with a rookie quarterback and worse talent otherwise around him.
A very underrated and forgotten event that occurred this offseason was when Sam Bradford essentially went on strike after the Eagles traded up to the No. 2-overall pick, where they were presumably going to draft a quarterback who was sure to eventually take over for Bradford.
During Bradford's absence, Pederson calmly maintained that Bradford was the starter and would welcome him back, as he repeatedly stated, "with open arms."
Eventually, Bradford returned and bought in (or at least did a good enough job faking it), and that whole situation just kind of faded away. Think about it. When was the last time you thought of that incident?
Had that situation gone differently and gotten ugly, there's a pretty good chance that Bradford's obviously wrong stance would have destroyed his value and the Eagles wouldn't have a first round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
If it weren't obvious enough already, in my view, there's no reason to fire Doug Pederson. While he's not exactly the best public speaker during his press conferences, if you take a look at what his offense has done this year despite a whole host of roadblocks, Pederson has shown encouraging work. The Eagles would be wise to allow Pederson, offensive coordinator Frank Reich, and quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo to continue to work with Wentz for a full offseason to allow for his continued progression as an NFL quarterback.
The reality is that Wentz is really the person that matters the most, and a coaching change could stunt his growth. If after the 2017 season, the Eagles haven't shown significant improvement, then this discussion will have more merit. Barring some sort of amazing coach magically becoming available and banging down the Eagles' door begging to coach the team, Doug Pederson isn't going anywhere just yet, and any suggestion that he should after just one season is asinine.
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