May 21, 2026
Kyle Ross/Imagn Images
Alec Bohm has been red hot, after starting the year ice cold. He's a player of extremes.
After some early season hiccups (major hiccups, actually), the Phillies are basically back.
The ballpark is filled with energy, and filled with wins again as the team's superstars are playing at an extremely high level.
A streak of six series wins in a row ended with a whimper against the Reds on Wednesday, but the vibes are still pretty good.
Two contending teams are ahead on the schedule in the Guardians this weekend at home followed by the Padres out in San Diego next week. Here are some burning Phillies thoughts we're pondering ahead of a tough stretch:
Rock bottom for Alec Bohm was probably April 21. After going 0-for-3 against the Cubs that night, the Phillies' everyday starting third baseman was slashing .128/.205/.179 — numbers so bad they are actually kind of impressive. His on base percentage was higher than his slugging.
In 24 games since that low point, Bohm is back with a vengeance. His slash has been at an All-Star level, .300/.347/.500 and his OPS has literally more than doubled, from .413 to .847.
All of this comes as top prospect, infielder Aidan Miller, can't get healthy.
If Bohm keeps this up, obviously he's no longer a hinderance in the lineup. And perhaps he'll earn a contract after all (though probably not with the Phillies in 2027).
There seem to be three tiers of relief pitcher in the Phillies current bullpen:
• The guys who are simply light's out — Johan Duran (1.42 ERA, eight saves), Orion Kerkering (2.60 ERA) and surprisingly journeyman Chase Shugart (1.53 ERA). When these guys get in the game it's a pretty safe viewing experience.
• Then we have the inconsistent, but solid guys who you'd like to be at the front of the bullpen — Brad Keller (3.92 ERA) and Tim Mayza (4.01 ERA).
• That's five pitchers. A bullpen consists of eight. The Phillies don't have three other guys that are pitching well enough to belong on an MLB relief corps. José Alvarado's ERA is above six. Tanner Banks and Jonathan Bowlan have been bad. Kyle Backhus and Zack Pop are hurt.
It's kind of floated under the radar with so many other things going on with this team, but the Phillies might want to start looking into promoting some of their top young arms, or trading for some bullpen help. With the offense steady and the starting pitchers playing well, the bullpen could become an Achilles heal quickly.
It feels like the Phillies have become increasingly reliant offensively on their MVP-runner up DH this season, which explains why they lost two of three games to the Reds this week with him sidelined (due to a stomach bug).
It hasn't always been a problem when Schwarber sat. In 2022 the Phils were 5-2 without him. In 2023 they were 2-0. In 2024 7-5, and last year — well, he played all 162 games last year.
Schwarber's 20 homers so far in 2026 represent 28% of the team's total output. His 36 RBI are 18% of the team's RBI, and his 33 runs scored are 16%. All by himself, Schwarber is essentially a quarter of the entire team's offensive output so it sort of makes sense that they'd have issues on offense without him.
He's expected to be fine for Friday's series against the Guardians.
How about some easy math. The Phillies are an even 25-25 through 50 games. With 112 to go, they are more or less starting from scratch.
Sitting nine entire games behind the Braves in the NL East is a crazy uphill climb, even with this many games remaining. They would probably need to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 75-80 of their remaining games at a minimum to catch the Braves on their current (and probably unsustainable) 114-win pace.
But the final Wild Card participant in the NL in each of the last four seasons has ranged from 83 wins to 89 wins. Which means the Phillies would need to go somewhere between 58-54 and 64-48 for the rest of the season to finish in playoff range.
FanGraphs sees them as playoff combatants — they project the Phillies win 86 games with a 61% chance of making the postseason.
We won't spent too much time on this thought — don't want to jinx it — but Bryce Harper has played 50 of 50 games this season. And not only that, he's playing at an elite level again. On his current pace, Harper is en route to producing 39 home runs and 100 RBI, power numbers that would each be the second highest of his entire career.
He's also never played 162 games in a season before. His previous high was 157 back in 2019. Will Don Mattingly give the former MVP a day off every now and then? Probably. But if Harper is healthy and producing like this all season, the Phillies will be in fine shape.
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