November 28, 2023
According to all the research we could find, the Eagles will be the first team in the Super Bowl era to be 10-1 and underdogs at home. They are giving the visiting 49ers (8-3) 1.5 points Sunday — though things could shift.
On paper it seems like a huge slight against the Eagles, the NFL's best team right now. But they have shown glaring weaknesses in almost every win they've had this season and there is a reason why oddsmakers have less confidence in them than they do the Niners.
The Eagles have a history of embracing an underdog role. In 2017-18, they were dogs in every playoff game they played with backup quarterback Nick Foles under center. They wore dog masks in the locker room and won the Super Bowl. In 2023, they have the presumptive NFL MVP under center and a relatively healthy roster. This could be the ultimate bulletin board material.
So why are they underdogs? Should they be?
We tried to piece together a picture of just why and how this determination was made. You can decide if it's correct or an enormous insult to the Eagles yourself — but a few things first:
The Eagles are the unanimous No. 1 across the NFL-ranking landscape after their impressive comeback against Buffalo. The Niners rank anywhere from 2-to-4 in most lists.
One of the odd things about the Eagles being underdogs is that they are both two wins better, and the home team. The Eagles are 5-0 at home this season and have won those five games by almost a touchdown each (6.2 ppg). The Niners on the road are 4-2 this season, and even though they have some extra time off after their win on Thanksgiving last week, flying across the country is never easy.
Here's a look at how Philadelphia and San Francisco match up in the stat sheet on offense:
| Category | Eagles | 49ers |
| Yards | 4,007 (11th) | 4,247 (5th) |
| Points | 310 (5th) | 310 (5th) |
| Net yds per pass | 6.6 (8th) | 8.3 (1st) |
| Rush yds per att | 4.2 (17th) | 4.5 (5th) |
| Third down % | 47.3% (3rd) | 44.4% (5th) |
| Red Zone TD % | 62.8% (5th) | 61.4% (6th) |
| Time of possession | 31:56 (3rd) | 31:48 (4th) |
The Niners have a better offense in most categories. And it makes sense. The Eagles have not won games by throwing up huge numbers, they have done what was needed to win and not much more.
| Category | Eagles | 49ers |
| Yards allowed | 3.761 (16th) | 3,248 (4th) |
| Points allowed | 246 (19th) | 170 (1st) |
| QB rate against | 94.8 (27th) | 77.1 (4th) |
| Sacks | 32 (11th) | 33 (10th) |
| Rush yards allowed | 938 (2nd) | 902 (1st) |
| Third down % | 45.5% (30th) | 39.9 (22nd) |
| Red Zone TD % | 64.9% (29th) | 52.0% (13th) |
| Turnover diff | -2 (19th) | +11 (1st) |
The Eagles being 10-1 with a minus-2 turnover rate is pretty remarkable.
One of the biggest things that stands out with these two teams about to do battle is the big names on both sides. There will be star power at the Linc on Sunday. For the purposes of this table, we'll use fantasy rankings (half PPR) to help highlight the top offensive performers on both teams:
| Eagles | Fant | 49ers | Fant | |
| QB | Jalen Hurts | 269.0 (QB2) | Brock Purdy | 205.0 (QB11) |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | 142.1 (RB7) | Christian McCaffrey | 248.8 (RB1) |
| WR | A.J. Brown | 183.5 (WR5) | Deebo Samuel | 102.2 (WR38) |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | 131.3 (WR18) | Brandon Aiyuk | 140.6 (WR12) |
| TE | Dallas Goedert | 72.0 (TE15) | George Kittle | 119.9 (TE3) |
The Eagles offensive line is ranked second by Pro Football Focus and is not lacking in star power.
Philly has been led by Haasan Reddick's 8.5 sacks, with Josh Sweat totaling 6.5. Nick Bosa has 8.0 for San Fran, with former Eagle Javon Hargrave in second on the team with 6.0. If we give the Eagles the nod in the trenches, their star players prevail.
The Birds have completed the fourth toughest schedule in football so far and their only loss was to the listless Jets. They've beaten the Vikings, the Dolphins, the Chiefs, the Cowboys and the Bills. The Niners are 13th in this category, and their three most impressive wins came against the Steelers, Cowboys and Seahawks.
We should mention here that the Niners lost three games in a row in the middle of the season, faltering to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals.
According to this controversial scale, the Eagles are... sixth, and the 49ers are first. Their formula combines a bunch of metrics that clearly favor San Francisco, but come on, the 10-1 Eagles are the sixth best team?
According to some slightly more respectable metrics, the 49ers have the second best DVOA in football, not far behind the Ravens. Philly checks in at 8th. It's the defensive side that hurts the Eagles in this measurement. Due to their struggles statistically against the pass, the Birds are 16th in defensive DVOA while the Niners are 6th.
You can make your own conclusion, but maybe Vegas got it right?
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