May 14, 2015
Football Outsiders, which is a statistics-driven website that is also part of ESPN's In$iders offering, published their early 2015 win projections, and they see the Eagles finishing at 9-7, with a "mean wins" total of 8.7. That is third in the NFC East.
| Team | Projected record | Mean wins |
| Cowboys | 11-5 | 11.2 |
| Giants | 9-7 | 9.4 |
| Eagles | 9-7 | 8.7 |
| Redskins | 5-11 | 5.0 |
Here was their take on the Eagles and Giants:
Improved health is also a big reason we have the Giants projected to improve, but there are clearly some issues in the Giants' training room. Big Blue has led the league in adjusted games lost for two straight seasons. So while this projection assumes some regression toward the mean, it doesn't assume as much as it would with other teams. And if the Giants have another season as the most injured team in the league, this forecast is clearly going to be too high.
Just as there are subjective reasons to believe that the Giants' may not get a boost when health regresses toward the mean by improving, there are subjective reasons to believe that the Eagles (and Chip Kelly's sports science program) may not get worse when their health regresses toward the mean by declining. But we do have to penalize the Eagles for introducing a new quarterback to their system, which usually means an offensive step back, all other things being equal.
Thoughts:
• Football Outsiders has the Cowboys as the second-best team in the NFC. I don't see that at all.
• The Giants have averaged 6.5 wins over the last two seasons, they have had a combined -109 point differential over the last two seasons, and they haven't really improved their roster. They're projected to win nine games because they're going to be more healthy? Please.
• The Eagles are right about where I'd have them. Bovada set the over-under for them at nine, and I said earlier this week that I'd lean toward the under, so I'm OK with their mean win total of 8.7.
• They have the Redskins picking first in the NFL Draft next season. As I noted yesterday, the Redskins stink, but they're not the worst team in the league.
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