May 07, 2015
It's May. The 2015 NFL Draft isn't even a week old yet. Needless to say, it's way too early to start speculating about next year's draft, but don't tell that to ESPN's Todd McShay. On Thursday, McShay unveiled his "Way-too-early 2016 NFL mock draft" (Insider) and normally I'd be mocking the idea of such an early prognostication, but something about it immediately caught my eye.
That "something" is exactly the reason these types of stories exist. They're not meant to accurately predict if player X will be selected by team Y, but to start a conversation about why player X would be a fit for team Y than player Z. And in that regard, McShay nailed this one.
He's got a quarterback going first overall ... to the Redskins ... who already have RGIII, Colt McCoy and Kirk Cousins. Tell me more, Todd.
However, it was none of those things that really drew me in. It was the name of the school next to the projected top pick: Penn State.
That's right, McShay's No. 1-overall pick is Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg. And if you think McShay is doing this just to get page views, you should know that he's not the first to suggest the idea of Hackenberg being the first pick.
Prior to his team's game against Penn State last September, UMass coach Mark Whipple, a former NFL assistant who spent time with the Eagles, Steelers and Browns, had the following to say:
"He's going to be the first player picked. If he could come out this year, he'd be the first player picked," Whipple said, later adding that Hackenberg "just can make every throw. ... He's just got it all." [nfl.com]
Remember, this is by no means written in stone. It'll change multiple times between now and then end of the college football season, and then a few more times between then and the actual draft. It'd be more appropriate to say it's written in dry sand on a windy beach. And to McShay's credit, he's upfront with that fact right off the bat, giving the following disclaimer:
• I have not done full tape studies on any of these players yet. We will begin going through the 2016 class next week and produce preseason scouting evaluations that will run in August. I made picks here based on what I've been able to see from these players in person, on TV and on limited tape and also what I've heard from league sources.
• The draft order below was generated for us by Football Outsiders, using their early projected records for the 2015 season.
Basically, he's warning the reader not too put a lot of stock in what follows because, let's be honest, doing a mock draft is pointless as it is, but doing one a five months before the season even starts is borderline ridiculous.
Nonetheless, I was interested to see what McShay had to say about Hackenberg, since his 2014 numbers don't quite scream first-overall pick.
| YDS | YPA | TD | INT | COMP % | RUSH TD | |
| 2013 (FR) | 2,955 | 7.5 | 20 | 10 | 58.9 | 4 |
| 2014 (SO) | 2,977 | 6.2 | 12 | 15 | 55.8 | 0 |
Here's McShay, via ESPN Insider:
We don't yet know what the future holds for Robert Griffin III, but if the projected records here from Football Outsiders come true, it's safe to assume Washington might be looking for a new franchise quarterback. Hackenberg struggled in 2014 with a 12-touchdown, 15-interception season, but he's a big-time talent with a pro-style skill set. [ESPN.com]
So after taking a step back in 2014, McShay sees Hackenberg having a much better 2015, which he'll need if he hopes to join defensive end Courtney Brown (2000) and running back Ki-Jana Carter* (1995) as the only Penn State players ever to be selected with the top pick.
Penn State hasn't had a first round pick since Jared Odrick went 28th overall to the Dolphins in 2010. The last time a Nittany Lion went in the top 10 of the first round was in 2007, when Levi Brown went fifth overall to the Cardinals.
It will certainly be interesting to follow second-year coach James Franklin and his team this season, because if you have a quarterback projected to be the No. 1 pick -- or even a top-10 pick -- like Hackenberg, odds are you'll win some games.
And while we're talking about this infuriatingly early mock draft, why not take a look at what McShay thinks the future holds for the Eagles, who, according to Football Outsiders, will have the 19th pick in 2016:
Su'a Cravens, S, USC: The Eagles need to continue to improve their secondary, and we know how much Chip Kelly likes Pac-12 players. Cravens has the size (6-1, 225 pounds) of an in-the-box safety who can also play some weakside linebacker. He has trouble covering the quickest slot receivers, but he can hold up in coverage for the most part because of his length and instincts.
We don't even know how this year's picks are going to pan out -- hell, up until last year we didn't even know if Brandon Graham was going to pan out -- so I'm going to wait until I've actually seen Cravens play* before deciding whether or not I like the pick.
And by the time that happens, McShay will probably have them picking someone else and we'll get to do this all over again.
