December 12, 2023
Week 14 of the NFL season is in the books, and the Philadelphia Eagles have quickly gone from the unanimous choice at No. 1 in power rankings for like a month straight, to very clearly inferior to both the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. We have no new obituaries this week.
10) Falcons (6-7): Prior to the draft, Bijan Robinson was being hailed as something of a can't miss, immediate star running back on the same level as guys like Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott when they came out. While he has had a good rookie season so far for the Falcons, Robinson has not been on the level of Barkley or Elliott.
Robinson is on pace for 1,033 rushing yards and 418 receiving yards. Again, good rookie season. Here's how that compares to Barkley and Elliott.
| Rookie RB | Yards from scrimmage | Total TDs | YPC |
| Saquon Barkley, 2018 | 2,028 | 15 | 5.0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, 2016 | 1,994 | 16 | 5.1 |
| Bijan Robinson, 2023 (17-game pace) | 1,452 | 9 | 4.7 |
In fact, since 2000, 15 rookie running backs have topped 1,500 yards from scrimmage in their rookie seasons. Robinson is on pace to miss that mark, with one extra game.
Last week: 8
9) Saints (6-7): Congratulations to the Saints, who have the best DVOA ranking in the NFC South, at 21.
Every other division in the NFL has at least one team in the top 10.
Average DVOA, by division:
• AFC North: 8.5
• AFC West: 15.5
• AFC East: 15.5
• NFC North: 16
• NFC West: 16
• AFC South: 17
• NFC East: 18
• NFC South: 25.5
Last week: 9
8) Buccaneers (6-7): Congratulations to the Bucs, who currently lead the NFC South on the strength of tiebreakers.
Here's which teams have led the NFC South after each week of the regular season, ignoring tiebreakers:
Weeks with at least a share of first place in the NFC South (again, ignoring tiebreakers):
• Saints: 9
• Falcons: 8
• Buccaneers: 7
They all suck, but they're all also doing just enough to keep their fan bases from doing more productive things on Sundays.
Last week: 10
7) Vikings (7-6): Chris Franklin (NJ.com) and I were rooting hard for the Vikings-Raiders game to end in a 0-0 tie while sitting in the JerryWorld press box before the start of the Eagles-Cowboys game, but it wasn't to be. Instead, it was the first 3-0 game since the Steelers beat the Dolphins 3-0 in 2007. That was on a rain drenched, sodded field. The Vikings-Raiders game was in a dome.
The shine is off of Josh Dobbs, who was benched in favor of... oof, Nick Mullens! If I were to make a list of the worst veteran quarterback training camp performances I have seen in my 11 years covering the team, it would look like this (rookies like Carson Strong and Clayton Thorson omitted):
If you're a Vikings fan optimist, you may say, "Yay, their defense is good." If you're a Vikings fan realist, you know that even if they make the playoffs, they are going to be little more than a speedbump for whatever team is fortunate to face them in the wildcard round because they don't have a quarterback.
Last week: 7
6) Packers (6-7): In my Week 14 picks, I wondered if the Packers might run the table the rest of the way, given their extremely soft schedule.
Nope! They promptly lost to Tommy Cutlets and the New York Giants, who have somehow won five games this season.
As long as we're on the Giants, we should probably mention that at varying points this season they looked like the worst team in the NFL. Welp, they haven't quit and have now won three straight games. The New York Times playoff predictor gives them a 2% chance of making the playoffs. The Eagles will still be heavy favorites over them when they play later this season, but maybe they won't be the "gimmes" that we thought they were?
And as long as we're mentioning teams that I already killed off this season, the Rams lost this week, but they gave the Ravens a scare, in Baltimore. If I could go back in time and not kill them off, I might have them as high as fifth in the hierarchy right now.
Last week: 5
5) Seahawks (6-7): The Seahawks' offense the last two games? Good 👍. They put up 35 points on a good Cowboys defense, and they weren't completely inept against the 49ers with Geno Smith out.
The Seahawks' defense? Very bad 👎. They allowed 527 (!) yards to the 49ers, and 33 (!) first downs the week before to the Cowboys.
Seattle is 1-4 in their division. They're 0-5 the last two seasons against the 49ers, and they got swept this season by the Rams.
Also, Jamal Adams is a bad guy off the field, and he also stinks on it. On Sunday:
Always a joy seeing Jamal Adams get cooked pic.twitter.com/ZkZpeOquHL
— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) December 10, 2023
And last week:
Prescott to Ferguson and the Cowboys take the lead with 4:37 to go!#SEAvsDAL on Prime Video
— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2023
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/YcXzMZb8jY pic.twitter.com/7kgIjgQ6AN
Let's revisit the trade the Seahawks made for Adams for few years ago.
| Seahawks got | Jets got |
| S Jamal Adams | 1st round pick, 2021 |
| 4th round pick, 2022 | 3rd round pick, 2021 |
| 1st round pick, 2022 | |
| S Bradley McDougald |
I remember thinking that was an atrocious trade at the time, and it looks even worse now. It's kind of comical that any team could have signed Lamar Jackson this offseason to an offer sheet (which would have meant forking over a couple of first round picks if the Ravens didn't match), and the Seahawks gave up two first-round picks for a safety who couldn't cover then and can't cover now.
Those two first-round picks more or less became OL Alijah Vera-Tucker and WR Garrett Wilson, in case you were wondering.
Last week: 6
4) Lions (9-4): The last three minutes of the Lions' Week 11 win over the Bears: Lions 17, Bears 0.
The other 117 minutes between the Lions and Bears: Bears 54, Lions 27.
The Lions will still very likely win the NFC North, but they still have two games against the Vikings, who are only two games behind them. They also have a pair of games against the surging Broncos and the Cowboys. If the Lions don't win at least one of their two games against the Vikings, they very likely won't win the division.
Last week: 4
3) Eagles (10-3): The common sentiment over the last few weeks was that the Eagles would run the table once "the gauntlet" is over. They're favored by 3.5 over the Seahawks Week 15, and barring a spate of devastating injuries to Jalen Hurts and bunch of their other best players they'll be favored in their final three games against the Giants, Cardinals, and Giants.
Here's the percentage chances that ESPN's "matchup predictor" gives the Eagles of winning the next four games:
• At Seahawks: 57.6%
• Giants: 86.6%
• Cardinals: 81.3%
• At Giants: 85.7%
One might quibble with those percentages (I happen to think they're reasonable), but let's for a moment pretend they're right on.
Mathematically, the Eagles would have a 34.8% chance of winning all four games.
Last week: 2
2) Cowboys (10-3): I posted the following poll on Twitter, and the very clear answer is the Cowboys, but I was curious to see if the Niners would get any traction.
I'm curious which team Eagles fans would find more objectionable if they won the Super Bowl: 49ers or Cowboys. The 49ers probably have more hateable players, but obviously, there's a far longer history of hatred for the Cowboys.
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) December 12, 2023
To my surprise, the Cowboys are only getting about 75% of the vote so far.
Last week: 3
1) 49ers (10-3): The 49ers have played one bad quarter in their last five games:
Prediction: They're going to win the Super Bowl, and maybe do it with ease.
Last week: 1
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