October 31, 2023
The Phillies are in a very interesting spot when it comes to first base. Their slugging 1B who in many ways is the heart and soul of a team that almost won a World Series title (and was a stone's throw from appearing in another) is about to be a free agent.
But the Phils don't actually need a replacement for him if he walks.
That's because Bryce Harper learned to play first this season after Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL in spring training. The Hoskins question could very well be entirely Harper's decision.
If the two-time MVP returns to right field in 2024, there will be an opening for Hoskins — who reportedly was working as hard as he could to try and return for a World Series berth that never came to be. If Harper prefers to stay at first, a move that actually improves the Phillies overall defense while obviously hurting them a bit on offense, there really won't be a place for Hoskins on the roster with Kyle Schwarber taking DH duties next season.
For the purposes of this exercise, let's just assume that Harper returns to his natural position. Should the Phillies take a chance on a homegrown fan-favorite player coming off a serious season-long injury?
Hoskins has more value to the Phillies than to other franchises. His history with the team certainly makes it seem like he might be willing to take a hometown discount, if it is offered. After making $12 million to sit on the bench during his contract year, Spotrac.com projects he has a market value of $21 million.
Is he worth that money, assuming he bounces back into form next season?
Hoskins' calling card is that he is sort of like Schwarber, but with a few more walks, a few less strikeouts, and 30 home runs instead of 50. He sees a lot of pitches and one has to wonder whether his plate discipline would have made a difference in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks, with Phillies hitters swinging and missing at an alarming rate.
His career numbers, broken down as an average per 162 at bats:
| Slash | HR | RBI | Walks |
| .242/.353/.492 | 36 | 98 | 94 |
In just six MLB seasons, Hoskins is 61st of all active MLB players in total walks right now. The big bats are what led the Phillies to a deep October run again and clearly Hoskins has that to offer.
In the 2022 postseason Hoskins blasted six homers in 17 games, but just 11 hits in total for a .159 batting average.
In the unlikely scenario that Harper elects to return to right field, and the Phillies do not reach a deal to bring Hoskins back, there are a handful of interesting options at first base but none that will have fans dialing up the season ticket hotline.
Here's a look at the top 10 first base free agent options available this fall:
| Player | Age | WAR | Projected salary |
| Rhys Hoskins | 30 | 11.1 | $21m |
| Max Muncy | 33 | 19.7 | $16m |
| Josh Bell | 31 | 9.4 | $14m |
| Joey Gallo | 30 | 15.1 | $13m |
| Carlos Santana | 37 | 35.5 | $9m |
| C.J. Cron | 33 | 12.4 | $9m |
| Giovanny Urshela | 32 | 9.0 | $8m |
| Mark Canha | 34 | 14.7 | $7m |
| Garrett Cooper | 32 | 4.2 | $7m |
| Brandon Belt | 35 | 29.6 | $3m |
The first basemen above are mostly guys who can hit for power but not for average — not really something the Phillies need more of in their lineup. If they are in a position where Hoskins leaves for greener pastures and Harper won't return to first, there are some proven and relatively cheap options out there.
That being said, it seems like it's got to be either Hoskins or Harper at first, or bust, for Dave Dombrowski's roster this season.
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