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October 19, 2015

Sixers’ offense and defense headed in opposite directions

Even during the age of League Pass and Twitter, there was a well-kept secret in Philadelphia throughout the 2014-15 NBA season. If you followed the Sixers closely (“the few, the proud?”), it was plain as day, delightfully obvious. If you, like many Philadelphia sports fans and NBA connoisseurs, consumed the Sixers mostly through sports radio hot takes and think pieces on tanking, it likely went unnoticed.

The Sixers sported an above-average NBA defense, a damn fine accomplishment when taking their relative youth into consideration.

13th overall at 102.1 points per 100 possessions (per NBA.com), to be exact. Of course, the Sixers didn’t finish 18-64 with the second-worst point differential in the league by mistake. Basketball is a two-way sport, and Brett Brown’s team was historically inept at the other half. The only silver lining is that the owner didn’t strongly suggest lining up four-on-five defensively while one player cherry-picked as a remedy to the team’s woes. At least I think that didn’t happen.

Worst OffRtg vs. league average since 2003-04

Team
Season
OffRtg
 Lg. avg.
Diff.
 Philadelphia 2014-15 93 103 -10
 Charlotte 2011-12 92.3 101.8 -9.5
 Philadelphia 2013-14 96.8 104 -7.3
 New Orleans
 2004-05 95.9 103.1 -7.1
 Seattle 2007-0897.6 104.7 -7.1


The chart above is the work of NBA.com stat maven John Schuhmann. It tells you that last year’s Sixers offense was the worst of the past eleven years when comparing to league average. With the 2013-14 edition coming in third to last during that span, we have the statistical evidence that Sam Hinkie is pushing the limits of offensive futility right in front of our very eyes.

So, there you have 2014-15: Brutal offense, and above-average defense that was probably better than the numbers indicate, considering the staggering number of turnovers and missed shots the aforementioned terrible offense forces its defense to deal with.

Now, the question is where the Sixers go from here. Not to many more wins, for one. As far as offensive and defensive efficiency, count me in the camp that imagines a more orthodox bad team. That is to say I believe the Sixers offense will take a decent step forward, while the defense makes a similar move backwards. Just consider some of the players that the team lost and added.

Key Additions: Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskas, Kendall Marshall
Key Losses: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Henry Sims, Ish Smith, Jason Richardson

The work Mbah a Moute did last season, guarding the opponent’s best player regardless of what position they played, will be sorely missed. His 31 percent three-point shooting, not so much. Also remember that Michael Carter-Williams, who had a ton of length at point guard, played 1400 minutes last season and the team was much better defensively (5.5 points per-100) with him on the floor than off it. The opposite is true of MCW’s offense, largely due to his bricky jump shooting.

Also, take a look at who they brought in. Okafor’s “great offense, no defense” college performance made him a very polarizing prospect. Stauskas can presumably provide spacing with his sniping ability, but even before his rookie season he was quoted as saying, “I understand that I’m a rookie and I’m white, so people are going to attack me at all times.” There was one other reason, too: He couldn’t stop anybody to save his life. Just ask Klay Thompson.

Kendall Marshall has the ability to be a pass-first point guard who can make defenses pay when they leave him open from beyond the arc. For Brett Brown’s sanity, let’s hope so. Marshall was available as a free agent late in the game for a reason, though: He was slow even before tearing his ACL, making him a major defensive liabilty.

Last Friday, the shorthanded Sixers gave up 127 points to the Washington Wizards in “a garbage preseason game,” according to their coach.

“I just feel like it was one of those games that you want to forget quickly,” Brown said. “Defensively we were poor and when you look at the groups we were playing, I just used it as a chance to sit down and watch.”

Earlier in the preseason, Brown bemoaned his team’s lack of transition defense. Unfortunately for him, I don’t think those problems are going away anytime soon. The additional element of shooting should help with the offensive problems, though. So should a second year of Robert Covington and Nerlens Noel. As will the arrival of Okafor, even if he struggles to score efficiently as a rookie. Can the offensive improvement cancel out the defensive difficulties?

I don’t know, but the offense should be much better than the last two years. How could it possibly be this bad again?


Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann

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