April 20, 2024
Alonzo Adams/USA TODAY Sports
Joel Embiid will thrive alongside just about any group of teammates, but the addition of veteran wing Nic Batum earlier this season has made the reigning NBA MVP's life a lot easier.
In the first of a two-part series, on Friday we evaluated every member of the New York Knicks' expected rotation for the first-round playoff series between the Knicks and Sixers. With tip-off of Game 1 from Madison Square Garden now merely hours away, the time has come to look inward at what the Sixers' firepower looks like.
Key stats: 39 games, 33.6 minutes per game, 34.7 points per game, 11.0 rebounds per game, 5.6 assists per game, 1.2 steals per game, 1.7 blocks per game, 52.9 field goal percentage, 3.6 three-point attempts per game, 38.8 three-point percentage, 11.6 free throw attempts per game, 88.3 free throw percentage, 64.4 true shooting percentage
As you likely do not need me to inform you, Embiid ended up missing more than half of this season after a meniscus injury held him out for just over two months before he returned in April. But after winning the NBA MVP Award in 2022-23, this season Embiid actually improved on a per-game basis -- and did so by a noteworthy amount, too. Embiid was far and away the frontrunner to win the award for the second consecutive season in the early portion of the campaign, but his massive amount of missed time ultimately caught up with him.
In the Sixers' epic but disastrous Play-In Tournament victory over the Miami Heat on Wednesday night, which afforded them the opportunity to face the Knicks, Embiid looked like a complete shell of himself on the offensive end of the floor... for about 45 minutes. He missed shots he normally makes, he failed to break down Miami's patented zone defense to any degree, he was timid, he committed sloppy turnovers, his energy level looked subpar and he appeared primed for one of the worst playoff defeats in a career filled with them.
But then, in the final three minutes of the game, the Sixers and their fans had the MVP back. Embiid knocked down two crucial free throws, then hit a three-pointer from the top of the key to put the Sixers back in front after trailing for nearly the entirety of the final three quarters of the game. After Miami retook the lead on a triple by guard Tyler Herro, Embiid rebounded a miss by Nic Batum, the star of the night, went back up and converted a three-point play to put the Sixers back in front. And then, with fewer than 40 seconds remaining in the contest and the score knotted up, Embiid drew a double-team on the perimeter and whipped a bullet pass to Kelly Oubre Jr., who finished an and-one over Miami Heat injured superstar Jimmy Butler, giving the Sixers a lead they would never relinquish.
So, of course, the question when it comes to Sixers-Knicks is simple: will the Sixers get the earlier version of Embiid, who looked scared of the moment and fit the bill that his biggest skeptics have created for him as a big-game player? Or will he finally break out of it and become the dominant postseason force everyone knows he has the ability to be?
Key stats: 70 games, 37.5 minutes per game, 25.9 points per game, 6.2 assists per game, 3.7 rebounds per game, 45.0 field goal percentage, 8.1 three-point attempts per game, 37.3 three-point percentage, 5.4 free throw attempts per game, 86.8 free throw percentage, 57.3 true shooting percentage
Maxey, who is considered by many to be the frontrunner to win this year's Most Improved Player Award, had a rare off night against Miami on Wednesday. The Sixers' first-time All-Star guard, perhaps best known for his quick trigger, looked oddly and uncharacteristically tentative for much of the game. Sixers head coach Nick Nurse spoke at length after the game about his repeated pleas to Maxey to be more aggressive, as he has instructed his first-time full-time point guard to be all season long -- particularly against the zone defense that frequently flummoxed the Sixers' offense.
While the Sixers' hopes in this series and any future one are mostly reliant on Embiid's performance, and the vast majority of Maxey's minutes will come alongside the superstar center, Sixers fans know far too well how the Sixers' struggles in minutes with Embiid off the floor can sink their team.
Embiid's extended absence was obviously not a positive development for the Sixers -- they would not have even had to face Miami on Wednesday night or the Knicks beginning this evening if Embiid played even just one or two more games this season that flipped from losses to wins.
But what could help is that Maxey got a two-plus month run as the lead guy for a competitive NBA team, making him the primary focus of opposing defenses and scouting reports. As any fourth-year player at a new position would, Maxey had some growing pains as he saw increased attention, but the experience is going to do him a lot of good, not just in the long term, but even in this upcoming playoff run.
Key stats: 70 games, 33.8 minutes per game 17.2 points per game, 6.5 rebounds per game, 3.1 assists per game, 48.7 field goal percentage, 3.7 three-point attempts per game, 35.3 three-point percentage, 57.6 true shooting percentage
Nurse finally did what the majority of the fanbase has long wanted him to do on Wednesday night: he closed the game with Harris on the bench, instead opting to surround Maxey and Embiid with Batum, Oubre and Kyle Lowry. Nurse shrugged off the decision after the game, citing Harris' fatigue as the main reason he sat. But while Nurse may not admit it, Harris was killing the Sixers for much of the game. He went 4-10 from the field, including several missed layups in a row that led to boos which almost blew the roof off the Wells Fargo Center, and his processing speed -- as it has often been -- was simply way too slow.
Harris missed some time towards the end of the regular season, and it was apparent that the team's ball movement looked consistently better without him in the starting lineup. There was some speculation that he may go to the bench for the first time in his five-plus year Sixers tenure upon returning, but that buzz was quickly squashed.
One could make a strong argument that Batum should start over Harris or Oubre after his two-way masterpiece against Miami -- especially considering the value of Batum's full-court pressure on Knicks superstar guard Jalen Brunson. But Batum is 35 and has battled several injuries this year himself, to be fair to Nurse, and a true starter's workload may not be viable for him at this juncture of his career.
Harris will receive chances to thrive in this series: Nurse will likely continue to start him and give him significant minutes, and the Knicks' pursuit of limiting Embiid and Maxey will generate good looks for Harris. There are three basic keys to Harris' series: Harris knocking down open looks, avoiding frustrating turnovers and Nurse being willing to once again pull the plug if necessary.
Key stats: 68 games (52 starts), 30.2 minutes per game, 15.4 points per game, 5.0 rebounds per game, 44.1 field goal percentage, 4.8 three-point attempts per game, 31.1 three-point percentage, 53.5 true shooting percentage
Oubre signed with the Sixers on a one-year, veteran's minimum contract very late in the summer after his market evaporated despite a 20.3-point per game season as a member of the Charlotte Hornets in 2022-23. He quickly became a godsend. Oubre is a flawed player whose general inefficiency will always cap his ceiling, but he has thrived in several roles as a Sixer. In the early and latter portions of the season, he has been an excellent cutter who quickly developed strong chemistry with a much-improved passer in Embiid, and while Embiid and others were sidelined with injuries, he took on a considerably large role as a go-to scorer. One could make a strong argument that Oubre, despite his imperfections, was the third-most valuable Sixer this season behind only Embiid and Maxey due to the sheer volume of roles he was able to satisfactorily fill.
One of the hallmarks of Oubre's scoring is his physicality. He relishes creating contact with defenders and finishing through it and/or drawing fouls. He is listed at 6-foot-7, 203 pounds with an enormous 7-foot-3 wingspan, is both bouncy and strong, and it gives him the athletic profile to overpower certain defenders.
New York starting shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo is a stellar defensive player who has become one of the game's premiere two-way starters. But DiVincenzo figures to match up with Oubre at least at some points of this series, and while the Villanova product is an elite role player, he is only listed at 6-foot-4 with a 6-foot-6 wingspan. This is a matchup Oubre has a chance to exploit.
Key stats (with Sixers): 23 games (20 starts), 28.4 minutes per game, 8.0 points per game, 4.6 assists per game, 3.9 three-point attempts per game, 40.4 three-point percentage
After being traded along with a first-round pick by the Miami Heat to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for guard Terry Rozier, Lowry found himself on the buyout market and quickly decided to return to his hometown and reunite with Nurse, the head coach with whom he won a championship as members of the Toronto Raptors organization.
Lowry was initially expected to be the Sixers' third guard, a stabilizer of sorts who perhaps would not be relied on for significant minutes but could leave a considerable impact on the game. Lowry has had that sort of major impact on winning since arriving in Philadelphia, but he has done it while playing more minutes than most expected.
Lowry was pivotal in the Sixers' collective effort to slow down Butler on Wednesday night: he defended his former teammate and close friend for nearly the entire first half. Batum took over that assignment for much of the second half -- Nurse spoke postgame about the need to "pass around" such a challenging cover -- but even while acknowledging Butler got hurt late in the first quarter after a mid-air collision with Oubre, Lowry's defense against Miami's primary scoring threat was impressive.
These days, the bulk of Lowry's defensive assignments are big guards and wings. At 38 years old, Lowry no longer has tremendous foot speed, and so his biggest plus as a defender is his remarkable strength. The main question ahead of this series beginning: how much time can Lowry spend defending Brunson? Brunson is not a burner type of guard with incredible explosion, but defending a true point guard as skilled as the Knicks' first-time All-Star could be a challenge for Lowry. If he cannot stick Brunson, he will be fine on DiVincenzo, Josh Hart or another Knicks perimeter player. But if he could give them quality minutes defending the player who Maxey has called "the head of the snake" for New York, it would be a boon for Nurse.
Key stats (with Sixers): 57 games (38 starts), 5.5 points per game, 4.2 rebounds per game, 3.1 three-point attempts per game, 39.9 three-point percentage
Batum owned the night on Wednesday, scoring more points (20) than he had in any game in over a calendar year, putting on a defensive masterclass and saving Embiid, Maxey and co. from a humiliating loss. Believe it or not, he may be more important to the Sixers' success against the Knicks than he was against the Heat.
Batum will likely not start games, barring something either going horribly wrong or horribly right in the early going, but he may defend Brunson more than any other Sixer. That, of course, will be his most important job throughout however many games this series goes. But, in rewatching all four Sixers-Knicks regular season games in preparation for this series, a trend stood out about how the Knicks could defend Batum that feels relevant.
The Knicks are far from the only team who does this, but they frequently attempt to "hide" Brunson, by far their highest-usage offensive player, by having him defend players who are unlikely to have the ball in their hands. It is not a sign of Brunson's weakness as a defender as much as it is a strategy to help him conserve energy. Frequently across the four regular season games between these two teams, the player Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau hid Brunson on was Batum.
In a vacuum, this seems sensible. Batum has only averaged 5.5 points and 4.4 field goal attempts per game as a member of the Sixers, and even Batum himself admitted after Wednesday's game that his 20-point outburst was an anomaly. But Batum, perhaps the most versatile and underrated Sixer, has mastered a tricky skill: post entry passing. Batum has always been a good passer for a wing, but playing alongside an offensive force as dominant as Embiid has taken Batum's passing to another level.
Embiid often operates at the nail as a scorer, but oftentimes the Sixers will park him in the paint and put Batum at the nail, give Batum the ball and let him deliver a pristine pass that frees up Embiid for an easy bucket. If Batum is being defended by a guard in Brunson, who if their listed heights are to be believed is six inches shorter than Batum, it could be a cake walk for Batum to drop dimes on Embiid.
Key stats: 82 games (24 starts), 19.4 minutes per game, 7.3 points per game, 6.0 rebounds per game, 0.8 steals per game, 1.0 block per game, 54.0 field goal percentage
Over the last two seasons, Reed has firmly established himself as the team's best option at the center position in those crucial non-Embiid minutes thanks to a blend of outlier athletic tools and just enough chaos to make it all come together. Reed has had an interesting season, which included career-bests in both total three-point attempts (57) and three-point percentage (36.8). Reed is far from a sniper, but if left wide open he can make opposing defenses pay from time to time. In Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks use two centers who are most comfortable in the paint and around the basket. It will be interesting to see what Nurse's tolerance level is for Reed's three-point ambitions if the Knicks indeed leave him alone beyond the arc.
The biggest question for Reed ahead of this series, though, is how he matches up with Hartenstein and Robinson. Hartenstein has 40 pounds and a major strength advantage over the Sixers' fourth-year big, and Robinson is listed as three inches taller with a 30-pound advantage to boot. Reed's answer will hopefully be what it typically is: that remarkable combination of athleticism and chaos. But it is worth noting that neither Knicks regular rotation center is exactly a perfect matchup for BBall Paul.
Key stats (with Sixers): 32 games (14 starts), 12.2 points per game, 3.0 assists per game, 6.6 three-point attempts per game, 38.9 three-point percentage
After being dealt to the Sixers from the Indiana Pacers at the trade deadline in exchange for the salaries of Marcus Morris Sr. and Furkan Korkmaz as well as multiple second-round draft picks, Hield kicked off his tenure in Philadelphia with a bonkers four-game stretch. He scored at least 20 points in all four games -- averaging 22.3 points per contest to go with a ridiculous 7.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds and a 45.0 three-point percentage on 10 three-point tries per game.
In 29 games since that stretch (including Wednesday's contest against Miami), Hield has not cracked 20 points a single time. He has been a very good but not great three-point shooter: for most players that is enormously exciting, but for someone with Hield's reputation as one of the truly elite three-point marksmen in the history of the game, it was a letdown. Hield has oftentimes seemed hesitant to pull the trigger in recent weeks, though he is slowly improving that aspect of his game over the team's last few contests.
Hield made only one of his five three-point tries against Miami and had a few brutal mistakes, including a silly string of passes early in the game and a missed layup in the fourth quarter. But Hield's effort was outstanding on both ends of the floor, and just the threat of his shot frightened Miami's defense: they closed out on Hield hard, and did so repeatedly, opening the door for him to collect six assists.
The Sixers will likely need Hield to shoot at the level he has been known to shoot at during this playoff run at some point. But his ability to attack closeouts has become increasingly important for them.
Key stats (with Sixers): 31 games (8 starts), 9.3 points per game, 3.1 assists per game, 4.4 three-point attempts per game, 38.2 three-point percentage, 53.3 true shooting percentage
The Sixers dealt fan favorite and then-key contributor Patrick Beverley to the rival Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Payne and a future second-round pick at the trade deadline, and the fanbase was outraged. Quickly, though, the move appeared to be prescient: with the arrival of Lowry, the Sixers no longer had much of a need for Beverley's defensive-oriented services, and given injuries suffered to Embiid, Maxey and others, Payne became an important figure on the offensive end of the floor for a healthy portion of the season.
Payne was expected to be an emergency piece and not much more when he got to Philadelphia, but the team's injury situation was so dire that just the day after landing in Philadelphia, not only was Payne forced into the starting lineup, but he logged nearly 36 minutes and scored 20 points to go with six assists, three rebounds and two steals.
In retrospect, that plug-and-play moment for Payne foreshadowed his first postseason game as a Sixer: he was not expected to be a relevant party, but was crucial when called upon. Payne was not in the rotation in the first half against Miami on Wednesday: given the crucial nature of the game, it was not surprising to see Nurse initially trim his rotation to eight players. But with just over a minute left in the third quarter, Nurse, absolutely desperate for an offensive spark, summoned Payne.
Casual observers will not remember much about Payne's 3 minutes and 29 seconds of play against Miami, but they will remember the one shot he took during that time: a corner three-point try as the third-quarter game clock expired. Payne, ice cold after not playing for the first 35 minutes or so of the game, knocked down an enormous triple on his very first touch. Maxey made a point to shout out Payne for staying ready in his postgame media availability, and the praise was earned: in a game they eventually won by just one point, the Sixers likely do not end up escaping that game with a victory without Payne's crucial triple.
It is unclear what the size of Payne's role will be when this series kicks off. But one thing is for sure: the 29-year old spark plug Payne will be ready whenever his time comes.
