June 12, 2015
As Kevin Garnett once screamed on national television somewhat coherently, “Anything is possible.” K.G.’s sound advice is why it would be foolish to declare with 100-percent certainty that Dario Saric won’t be in a Philadelphia 76ers uniform next year, playing alongside Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel, and Lottery Pick X in front of rejuvenated crowds at “The Center.” Is that how it’s done?
A couple of days ago, David Pick, who is sort of like the European version of Woj, got the masses all excited with one tweet. Then, he promptly brought them back down to Earth a little bit with the follow-up, but not enough to where all of the excitement subsided.
Philadelphia in talks to lure overseas asset Dario Saric to U.S., I'm told. He is under contract and Turks love him.
— David Pick (@IAmDPick) June 10, 2015
I doubt Efes surrender Dario Saric, but notion among Sixers official is - "we want him now".
— David Pick (@IAmDPick) June 10, 2015
Sam Hinkie could go to Turkey and blare “In Your Eyes” outside of Saric’s window, and it still likely wouldn’t matter. The Sixers knew what they were getting into when they selected the Croatian forward with the 10th overall pick last year, and there are still plenty of reasons why it doesn’t make sense for Saric to come across the pond for the 2015-16 season.
In honor of David Letterman’s recent retirement, I thought we’d count them down from ten to one.
Saric’s first “out” in his three-year contract with Anadolu Efes comes after Year 2, which is the 2015-16 season. If the Sixers want to get him over here for the 2015-16 season, which is what’s being reported, both sides would have to come to an agreement on a buyout.
Notice how it said “both sides” there. If Efes wants to keep him, they’re under no pressure to negotiate with the Sixers. And they should want to keep him because…
After not making it out of the first round of the Turkish playoffs last year, Saric has helped lead Efes to the championship series. Check out how well he’s playing statistically, per Sixers.com’s Max Rappaport:
Through 8 TBL Playoff games, per 36 Dario Saric is averaging… 17.9 PTS 10.9 REB 4.3 AST 54.3 FG% 36.7 3P% (26.4 MPG) #TrustTheProcess
— Max Rappaport (@MaxRappaport) June 9, 2015
On one hand, this is excellent news for the Sixers. You want the players who are stashed overseas to thrive, but in Saric’s case, it also very well could delay his arrival in America. Why would Efes want to part a year early with a 21-year-old budding star in Europe who should only improve the following season? Well, I could think of one reason: money. Alas…
If this were soccer, Chelsea, Man City, or some other extremely wealthy club would hand Efes a blank check and that would be that. Unfortunately for Josh Harris, who has plenty of money himself, it’s not futbol. The most that the Sixers can contribute to Saric’s buyout is $625,000, which means…
The Sixers would be able to use about $1.5 million of Saric’s salary up front in addition to the $625,000 they’re allowed to contribute to the buyout, but it’s not like Saric gets that money back. Taking a chunk out of your paycheck hurts, especially when...
Good point from Derek Bodner, who wrote about this in detail: When you consider the tax differences and the limitations of the NBA rookie scale, Saric would make more than $2 million dollars extra next season alone if he stayed put at Efes. They can pay that salary, too, because…
One of the reasons the Sixers were able to land Furkan Aldemir in the middle of this past season was that his club, Galatasaray, wasn’t paying the bills on time. Not the case with Efes, who also have something else going for them…
They’ve had their difficulties at times this year, but here’s what Saric had to say about legendary 71-year-old coach Dusan Ivkovic to HoopsHype’s Jorge Sierra:
He coached my father in my hometown Sibenik for a while, so I knew exactly what kind of situation I would go through in Turkey. It's been a great experience for me to work with coach Ivkovic. He's an open man to speak with and it's good that he has so much experience. He's now old but still has the energy to explain the young players how we have to play the game, so he's still young for me.
OK, that one was more of a question. To answer it, the rookie scale is already predetermined, which means these contracts won’t jump with the cap explosion. So Saric should want to come over as quickly as possible, right?
Not one, not two, not… OK, three years. Why is 2017 such a big deal? I’ll let ESPN Insider’s Amin Elhassan answer that one because he explains it better than I can:
It also means being on a rookie-scale deal really stinks for a player! Drafted and stashed international players (most prominently from European leagues) will have a greater incentive to delay coming over, as waiting three years allows them to circumvent the rookie scale (this is how Chicago signed 2011 first-round pick Nikola Mirotic to a three-year, $16.6 million deal this past summer).
For example, 2014 Philadelphia draftee Dario Saric has an NBA out in his European deal in 2016, but he's much better off coming over in 2017 to avoid getting locked into the discounted rookie rate, and instead be eligible for a lucrative deal.
So what’s the exact difference in cash we’re talking about?
That’s Bodner’s estimate, anyway.
Again, I'm not going to completely rule out the Sixers here. The people running the team are excellent at manipulating the CBA, and maybe they'll make a convincing argument to Saric about getting to his second contract faster. Maybe Saric is part of some turmoil behind the scenes there and wants out. From here, though, Saric becoming a Sixer in 2015 doesn't seem all that obvious.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
