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June 16, 2015

Taking a wait-and-see approach on Joel Embiid’s setback

Since Adrian Wojnarowski’s report (and the Sixers’ official statement only a few minutes after) was released on Saturday night, the question wasn’t if Joel Embiid’s setback is bad. It’s definitely bad. The question is, “How bad is it?” I’m not a doctor nor do I play one on TV, so I decided to ask Thomas Peff, an orthopedic surgeon at Abington Hospital – Jefferson Health, what he thought of the recent reports about Embiid.

“They may not find much,” Peff said. “It may be another six months. It could be another year. He may be done, and he may never play basketball again. That’s a possibility.”

Here’s the important section from Woj’s piece:

After weeks of rigorous workouts, Embiid had not felt pain in the foot, but a recent CT scan revealed an issue in the healing process, sources said. Philadelphia is consulting with doctors on how to best proceed, and it's still premature to speculate on the possibility of another surgical procedure that could sideline Embiid, sources said.

Then, there was the Sixers’ statement:

During his visit with Dr. Richard Ferkel, a standard CT scan on Joel's right foot revealed less healing than anticipated at this point. Our priority remains providing Joel with every opportunity to ensure he has a long and successful NBA career, and as such, these findings cause us to pause and reassess his current activities.

Pretty vague, no? Embiid’s medical records were an oft-discussed topic this time last year leading up to the draft, and now they continue to be a subject of scrutiny that will likely never see the light of day. One of the consequences of such a vague report is that all possibilities are still in play to outside observers. This is why you’ve see reports over the past few days that Embiid may need surgery or that Embiid may miss the entire season. “May, may, may” is being thrown in Embiid’s direction recently just as much as Cersei Lannister had to hear, “shame, shame, shame.”

All of the options still seem to be on table, but that also can be deduced from reading Sam Hinkie’s statement. Completely out of left field, Bill Self took one of the strongest stances so far on Monday afternoon. Speaking of a phone conversation Embiid supposedly had with KU assistant Norm Roberts over the weekend, Self had this to say about his former star center:

"Basically, he’s been working out and everything, and the doctor told him — based on doing the MRIs or X-rays or whatever they do… even though it feels better, it doesn’t look like it’s made the progress they would hope at this stage, so they were gonna slow him down,” Self related. “But by no means, from what Jo has told us, 'slow down' does not mean major setback. It means they’re gonna give it a little bit more time to heal before they put him in stressful situations.”

As with everything else, the only thing that will stop the speculation is more concrete information about both the setback and next step the Sixers and Embiid take. Whether the answer involves simply shutting the big man down for a little while in the summer like Self suggested, season-ending surgery like some have speculated about, or anything in between, it’s foolish to make any declarations before that information comes.

One thing we do know is the Sixers are extremely cautious when it comes to Embiid. I personally don’t believe he was ever going to play this season regardless of how his rehab went. The team reportedly threw a walking boot on Embiid, and that won’t change until they figure out what the appropriate next course of action is. Until then, there’s probably going to be a lot of noise.

“If he was a mere mortal, they’d say, ‘No problem, just wait til the thing heals,’” Peff said. “’It may take another year, two years, who cares?’ Because he’s the franchise’s big gun, everybody is all excited.”

He is the big gun, too, maybe even a bazooka is a better comparison. If Embiid is seriously injured, it’s a major disappointment not so much because the Sixers might’ve completely whiffed on the third overall pick in the draft. Mostly, it would be a crushing blow because they actually acquired the superstar-level talent and couldn’t get him on the floor for two years. I’m clearly getting ahead of myself, though.

“When they say ‘not healing,’ is it healing any continuity of the bone?” Peff wondered. “Is it not completely fused? Is it partially fused? These are all gradations. Again, it’s hard to know just from what you read in the newspaper what they’re basing their suspicions or concerns on.”

Just like the rest of us, Peff needs more info.

Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann

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