For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 4 picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Ravens (-3) at Steelers: I'm actually looking forward to seeing old friend Michael Vick play again Thursday night for the Steelers. Not to get all non-footbally here, but my opinion of Michael Vick the person did a complete 180 after observing him in Philly for five years. Unfortunately for the Steelers, my opinion on Michael Vick the player did a similar 180.
Jets (-2) at Dolphins (in London): Apparently, the NFL is discussing moving the Eagles-Redskins game to Ford Field in Detroit if Hurricane Joaquin Andujar ruins it. Um... NFL? How about Miami? They're in London.
We'll make sure we clean up afterward. They won't even know we're there. Do it! DOOOOOO IIIIIIIIIIT!Jaguars at Colts (-9): The entire AFC South is 1-2. The Colts have looked about as bad as they can look so far this season, and yet they still kinda-sorta lead their division on the merits of their 1-0 division record. I picked
the Colts to go to the Super Bowl before the season, not because I think they're some kind of juggernaut team, but rather because they are almost certainly going to easily win the AFC South. I do admit that seems dumb now the way the Patri*ts are playing. Still, this game is one of six the Colts
should win in their awful division.
Giants at Bills (-5.5): The Bills' rushing attack has been very impressive this season, as they have churned out 152.7 rushing yards per game this season (best in the NFL) on 4.7 yards per rushing attempt (3rd best in the NFL). They also lead the league in rushes of 20+ yards (5) and 40+ yard runs (only 1, ha). That of course is helped by their running QB, Tyrod Taylor, who has 96 rushing yards, but the Bills have gotten surprisingly good production from rookie Karlos Williams, who has 186 rushing yards already. The Giants have been far better against the run this season than they were a year ago, when they gave up a league-worst 4.9 yards per carry.
Panthers (-3) at Buccaneers: Not that the Buccaneers have done much winning
anywhere lately, but they haven't won in Tampa since Week 14 of 2013. That would be 10 straight home losses for the Bucs. The Panthers allow just 16 points per game (2nd best in the NFL), and the Bucs only score 16.3 points per game (3rd worst in the NFL). Not sure why this line is only 3.
Eagles (-3) at
WASTEAM: The Eagles still can't throw or catch, particularly whenever they try to throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. Meanwhile, the Redskins, believe it or not, have the #2 ranked defense in the NFL. As of Thursday night, we really have no idea where this game is going to be played, and these flukey scheduling quirks never seem to work out for the Eagles (remember Tuesday Night Football?). Therefore, I am so tempted to pick against the Eagles here, but ultimately, the Redskins are still the Redskins.
Raiders (-3) at Bears: A few days ago,
we killed off the Bears in our "Obituary/Hierarchy" series. You know it's bad when the Raiders are three point favorite in your house. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- The Bears are prime candidates to have the #1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, the Raiders are trying to go 3-1.
Texans at Falcons (-7): Hey look, the Falcons are playing a team outside of the NFC East, which makes them sad. However, they take a quick break from the worst division in the NFC to take on a team from the worst division in the AFC. And then it's back on to the Redskins next week to close out their sweep of the NFC East. The Falcons might actually start 5-0.
Chiefs at Bengals (-4): They battle of the "bleh" quarterbacks! But when... Is Andy Dalton finally not "bleh" anymore? Through three games so far this season, Dalton is killing it. He's 61 of 92 (66.3%) for 866 yards, 8 TDs, 1 pick, and a 121.0 QB rating. The Chiefs' pass rush will pose Dalton's biggest challenge of the season so far, but the Bengals have the better QB (this season) and the better overall roster.
Browns at Chargers (-7.5): Chargers, why do you fool me every year into thinking you'll be good? Makes me mad. Apparently, there is reportly dissention in the locker room over who should be the Browns' quarterback -- Johnny Manziel or Josh McCown. That might be the lamest quarterback controversy of all time, and for that reason, I'm picking against the Browns.
Packers (-9) at 49ers: This just seems like one of those games where the Packers are not only going to want to beat the Niners (obviously), they're going to want to pummel them into ground unmercifully. The last four times Aaron Rodgers has played the Niners, he has lost, with two of those losses coming in the playoffs. I expect Aaron to see those opposing colors and just want to put it on them.
Rams at Cardinals (-7): The Cardinals are smashing everything in their path at the moment. Granted, the teams in their path so far have been the 0-3 Saints, the 0-3 Bears and the 1-2 49ers, although it's not as if the Rams are much better than that trio of awfulness. The Cardinals will continue to smash against the youngest team in the NFL for the fourth straight season.
Vikings at Broncos (-7): That Broncos' defense is really, really good. They are allowing just 259 total yards per game (best in the NFL), 4.2 yards per play (best in the NFL), 16.3 points per game (3rd in the NFL), a 19% conversion rate on 3rd down (best in the NFL), they have 11 sacks (3rd in the NFL), and they've forced 10 turnovers (2nd in the NFL).
Cowboys at Saints (-4.5): The Saints' home field advantage isn't very advantageous lately. They have lost their last six games in the Superdome with a combined point different of -81, while the Cowboys have won their last 10 regular season road games. That of course does not include the playoff game when Dez didn't catch it. The Cowboys are not a good team with all the players they're missing, but they're still better than the Saints.
Lions at Seahawks (-10): The Seahawks are back on track after destroying what might be the worst team in the NFL in the Bears. Still... It's always good to get that first win under your belt, and the Seahawks will continue to roll over the highly disappointing Detroit Lions.
Note: The Patri*ts and Titans have byes.
Picks against the spread: Panthers (-3), Packers (-9), Cowboys (+4.5),
Last week, straight up: 12-4
Season, straight up: 30-18
Last week, ATS: 3-3
Season, ATS: 9-8
Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski
Matt Ludtke/AP
