April 13, 2017
Chris Szagola/AP
Will Sixers center Joel Embiid be the 2016-17 NBA Rookie of the year despite playing in just 31 games?
It's no stretch to suggest that the 2016-17 NBA Rookie of the Year award will go to one of three players: Sixers center Joel Embiid, forward Dario Saric or Bucks guard Malcolm Brogdon.
Now that the regular season is complete, here is where the NBA Rookie of the Year race stands for the top three candidates. pic.twitter.com/1D9FZsDro7
— Lukas Harkins (@hardwiredsports) April 13, 2017
As you can see, it's a close race, one that will likely come down to the panel's collective feeling about Embiid playing in so few games.
Sixers rookie Ben Simmons, who didn't play a game this season due to a broken foot, wouldn't pick between his two teammates, but eliminated the Bucks guard from consideration.
“Somebody from the Sixers for sure,” he told reporters on Thursday.
Who does @BenSimmons25 think will win Rookie of the Year?
— Zack Neiner (@ZackNeiner) April 13, 2017
"Somebody from the Sixers." pic.twitter.com/dO6TpUtLyp
Richaun Holmes, who saw a big spike in minutes once Embiid was shut down for the season, also opted for the diplomatic response, but was slightly more creative in how he went about it.
"Joel Saric," he said.
As for Embiid himself, the Sixers rookie center has no trouble deciding. He recently told Jackie MacMullan of ESPN.com that he's worthy of winning despite appearing in just 31 games:
"I think so," Embiid said [when asked if he should be the Rookie of the Year]. "I mean, no disrespect to other guys. Dario [Saric] is my teammate and my friend, and I love him. And I know Malcolm [Brogdon] from when I was visiting schools. When I made my visit to Virginia, he took me around. They both had great seasons.
"I know people are saying about me, 'Oh, he only played 31 games.' But look at what I did in those 31 games -- averaging the amount of points I did in just 25 minutes.
"I'm not sure why people want to punish me for that. Even going back to the All-Star Game. I didn't get chosen for that, and people were killing me because I didn't play 30 minutes a game. But here's what I don't understand: If I put up those numbers in less time than another guy, what's the difference? Doesn't it mean I did more in less time? Wait until I play as many minutes as those guys, then you will see what I do.
"But people have their own ideas about how they vote for things." [espn.com]
Unfortunately for Embiid, who, like Saric, will also have to overcome the voting process, those "ideas" are more frequently resulting in him be penalized for his lack of playing time this season.
Even if they don't know the name of the other guy they'd vote for instead...
Can't stop laughing at these guys saying Embiid doesn't deserve Rookie of the Year while being unable to remember the name of guy who does! pic.twitter.com/rSbn5BiJZ7
— Marshall Harris (@mharrisCSN) April 13, 2017
Yikes.
Here's a look at what the national media is saying about the Rookie of the Year race:
The guys over at CBSSports.com picked winners for all the year-end awards, but we’re only worried about Rookie of the Year. And based on their votes, it’s not looking good for either Sixers rookie.
Here’s what they had to say:
Bill Reiter: Dario Saric
It's a down season for rookies, but Dario Saric has been a rare bright spot on a team in desperate need of them. Discounting teammate Joel Embiid, who played in just 31 games, Saric leads rookies in points per game and is second in rebounds per game.
Ethan Skolnick: Malcolm Brogdon
Second in minutes in an uninspiring rookie class, and first in win shares, steals and assists, while keeping turnovers down and shooting efficiently (40.3 percent from three, 86.5 percent from the line), the mature play-maker has been a season-long factor on a competitive team.
Matt Moore: Malcolm Brogdon
I was sold on Saric, had his name in there and everything. But Brogdon does so much for the Bucks. He's already a good defender. He's their best play-maker behind Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's shooting above 40 percent from 3-point range. And he's doing this on a team that is in the playoffs, where it's even harder to get minutes. Saric has been great. Brogdon has been the best rookie in a class compromised by Joel Embiid's injury.
James Herbert: Malcolm Brogdon
Few rookies help their team win, but Brogdon did that consistently all season with heady defense and a desperately needed combination of shooting and play-making.
Jack Maloney: Malcolm Brogdon
He's leading rookies in assists and steals, is fourth in scoring and is shooting over 40 percent from downtown. Plus, he stole the starting point guard role and has been instrumental in the Bucks' late-season playoff push.
Joseph Levin: Malcolm Brogdon
Malcolm Brogdon leads all rookies in assists and steals, while sitting second in 3-point percentage and fourth in scoring. The all-important factor, of course: He's doing it on a playoff team. [cbssports.com]
Here’s how the ProBasketballTalk staff would vote for ROY – and it’s important to note that Kurt Helin has an official ballot this year. [We just included their picks; to see why they voted the way they did, click here.]
Kurt Helin
1. Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks
2. Joel Embiid, 76ers
3. Willy Hernangomez, KnicksDan Feldman
1. Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks
2. Joel Embiid, 76ers
3. Dario Saric, 76ersDane Carbaugh
1. Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks
2. Dario Saric, 76ers
3. Joel Embiid, 76ers
That Brogdon is also the feel-good story of a second-round pick, No. 36 overall, who beat long odds should have no place in the decision. The judgment should be on where a player is, not where he was as training camp opened. Besides, Saric has the positive story line of coming to the NBA after being drafted, spending two more seasons in Europe as hype built, and showing he was worth the wait. Embiid similarly made the 76ers look good for being patient as he came back after losing the two previous seasons to injury and tore through most of the competition while flashing a fun personality.
It is Brogdon’s efficiency and dependability that makes the difference. If he wins, his 10.2 points per game would be the lowest ever for a Rookie of the Year, less than the 10.7 of 1952-53 winner Don “Monk” Meineke. Brogdon is shooting 45.3 percent overall, No. 12 in the class, (second among rookie guards) -- a good number for a veteran playing in the backcourt -- and 40.3 percent behind the arc. [nba.com]
At last, there’s some love for the Sixers, specifically Embiid. Here’s a snippet of what the staff over at SI.com had to say about their ROY picks. [Read all their NBA award picks, here.]
Ben Golliver: Joel Embiid, 76ers
As hard as it is to rationalize giving the honor to Joel Embiid, who missed his first two rookie seasons due to injury and held up for just 31 games this season, the Sixers center was leaps and bounds better than anyone from the 2016 draft class. He paced all rookies with at least 300 minutes played in PER, averaged nearly twice as many points as Malcolm Brogdon, shot better than 40% on threes, posted a sterling 99.1 defensive rating, and led Philadelphia to a 13-18 record while in the lineup (compared to 15-35 when he sat).
Andrew Sharp: Joel Embiid, 76ers
Don't tell me he didn't play enough games! First of all, there are no rules for any of these awards—we're not electing Joel Embiid to Congress (but should we? can we?). Second, Embiid is quite literally the rookie of this year. In two weeks or 20 years, if anyone talks about rookies who emerged in the 2016-2017, the conversation will begin and end with the player who played 31 games. I like Dario Saric and I've liked Malcolm Brogdon since the draft, but they're not in the same category.
Rob Mahoney: Dario Saric, 76ers
It’s hard to work as a versatile, playmaking big on a team that lacks for order and spacing. Saric found his lane. Brogdon’s season undoubtedly meant more considering that he plays for a more competitive team, but Saric’s edge in productivity and successes in spite of an uphill grind endear me to his case.
Rohan Nadkarni: Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks
Give me Brogdon, who has played a significant role on a playoff team. The Embiid situation is the elephant in the rookie room, but I just don’t feel comfortable giving a year-long award to someone who only played 31 games. [si.com]
We polled the ESPN Forecast panel of experts for their votes -- both their preferences and their predictions.
To determine the order, we used the NBA's point system for first-, second- and third-place votes. We've also included the number of first-place votes each player (or coach) received.
Here's a look at who they think will win in a race deemed "too close to call."
And here's who they think should win, based on percentage of first-place votes:
You can find the ROY picks for every ESPN.com writer here (and in our handy table at the bottom of this post). But it's safe to assume Zach Lowe's ballot isn’t going to make Sixers fans happy…
1. Malcolm Brogdon
2. Dario Saric
3. Buddy HieldFor 31 games, Joel Embiid was one of the best rookies in league history. The Sixers -- the freaking Sixers -- performed like a playoff team during Embiid's outrageous 786 minutes.
Unfortunately, the NBA season consists of 82 games. Had Embiid played more of them, Philly might have actually been a playoff team. I'm sorry that one of the baseline requirements for being a productive NBA player is playing in NBA games. [espn.com]
For the counter argument, here’s on of Seth Rosenthal’s four reasons why the award should go to Embiid:
Reason No. 2: His minutes limit is actually impressive!
Embiid played only 786 minutes over 31 games — that’s like, half of each game. And even under that limit, he still produced like a star. He averaged 20.2 points per game. He still blocked more shots per game than anyone but Rudy Gobert. He was still in the top 10 in free throw attempts per game! That’s like getting the perfect 8-minute abs in only 4 minutes. [sbnation.com]
There's also this:
Malcolm Brogdon only scored 140 more total points than Joel Embiid despite playing in 44 additional games.
— Drunk Sixers Fan (@DrunkSixersFan) April 13, 2017
Here's a look at all the above picks in a handy table (as well as all those ESPN.com picks I mentioned earlier).
| Writer | Outlet | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| Kurt Helin | NBC Sports | Brogdon | Embiid | Hernangomez |
| Dan Feldman | NBC Sports | Brogdon | Embiid | Saric |
| Dan Feldman | NBC Sports | Brogdon | Embiid | Saric |
| Scott Howard-Cooper | NBA.com | Brogdon | Saric | Embiid |
| Bill Reiter | CBS Sports | Saric | --- | --- |
| Ethan Skolnick | CBS Sports | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Matt Moore | CBS Sports | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| James Herbert | CBS Sports | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Jack Maloney | CBS Sports | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Joseph Levin | CBS Sports | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Ben Golliver | Sports Illustrated | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Andrew Sharp | Sports Illustrated | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Rob Mahoney | Sports Illustrated | Saric | --- | --- |
| Rohan Nadkarni | Sports Illustrated | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| J.A. Adande | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Kevin Arnovitz | ESPN.com | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Bradford Doolittle | ESPN.com | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Amin Elhassan | ESPN.com | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Jeremias Engelmann | ESPN.com | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Chad Ford | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Chris Forsberg | ESPN.com | Saric | --- | --- |
| Nick Friedell | ESPN.com | Saric | --- | --- |
| Israel Gutierrez | ESPN.com | Saric | --- | --- |
| Tom Haberstroh | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Chris Haynes | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Baxter Holmes | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Zach Lowe | ESPN.com | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Tim MacMahon | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Jackie MacMullan | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Dave McMenamin | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Kevin Pelton | ESPN.com | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Ramona Shelburne | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Ethan Strauss | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Marc Spears | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Marc Stein | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Justin Verrier | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Calvin Watkins | ESPN.com | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Brian Windhorst | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Mike Wise | ESPN.com | Brogdon | --- | --- |
| Michael Wright | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
| Royce Young | ESPN.com | Saric | --- | --- |
| Ohm Youngmisuk | ESPN.com | Embiid | --- | --- |
Joel Embiid - 18
Malcolm Brogdon - 18
Dario Saric - 6
Great. We've solved nothing...
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