For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 7 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Chiefs (-3) at Raiders: The 2017 Raiders will be the cautionary tale for the 2018 Eagles.
Buccaneers at Bills (No line): There's no line on this game because Jameis Winston may or may not play. Either way, we'll take the Bills, who have played a tough schedule so far and sit at 3-2.
Panthers (-3) at Bears: The Bears won last week and the Panthers lost. So that means that the Bears are suddenly not that bad, and the Panthers aren't that good, right? It's these types of oddball recency bias lines that I love.
Titans (-5.5) at Browns: I say it every week. The idea that the Browns are this significantly improved team is ridiculous. They're 0-6 with an average margin of defeat of more than 10 points.
Saints (-5.5) at Packers: Without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are 5.5-point dogs at home. With him, they'd probably be something like four-point favorites. We're about to see how bad this team is without the best player on the planet.
Jaguars (-3) at Colts: The Colts have the worst point differential in the NFL, at -76.
Jets at Dolphins (-3): I have no idea what to make of either of these two teams, and won't try.
Ravens at Vikings (-5): If the Vikings had a quarterback, I think a lot of people would be talking about them as NFC Super Bowl favorites. Becuase they don't have a reliable quarterback, they are far from a great team, but should handle their business against an injury-ravaged Ravens team.
Cowboys (-6) at 49ers: The Niners are 0-6, but they've lost their last five games by a combined 13 points, and none by more than three points. They've been in almost every game.
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Meanwhile, this Zeke Elliott situation is a mess for the Cowboys. He's on pace for 390 touches this year, and he's been ineffective. He's running at a 3.7 yards-per-carry clip, with 122 touches and only 28 first downs. He has clearly put on weight and doesn't look like the same player, even if his offensive line has also predictably regressed to some degree.
If the Cowboys want to run him into the ground while he isn't even playing well, all while simultaneously causing a major distraction, the rest of the NFC East should take joy in watching his suspension get delayed repeatedly.
Had Elliott just been suspended for the Cowboys' first six games, it would already almost be over and they'd probably have the same record. Instead, it is becoming a year-long distraction, and Elliott is likely still going to serve those six games at some point.
I'll still take the Cowboys here, I guess, but I love the value of getting six points, and wouldn't be surprised if the Niners won this game outright.
Bengals at Steelers (-5.5): After a slow start, the Bengals have played much better more recently, and look like the team that makes the playoffs most years. The Steelers meanwhile, will look awful one week (losing to the Bears or being blown out by the Jaguars), and then great the next (beating KC on the road, for example). We'll pick the Steelers to win, but I think that 5.5 points is a bargain.
Broncos at Chargers (-1): It's interesting that the Chargers are one-point favorites in this matchup, especially considering they have no home field advantage whatsoever.
Seahawks (-6) at Giants: If somehow the Giants can manage to win six games this season, it will have been about as disastrous a season as imaginable. Last week, they picked up a pointless win in Denver. You're tanking wrong, Giants.
Falcons at Patriots (-3.5): The Patriots no longer look invincible at home, but I still can't get myself to pick against them there. The Falcons will obviously be looking for revenge for the Super Bowl, and they won't get it.
Word of advice to the Falcons' staff if they find themselves up eight with around four minutes to go just outside the red zone – just run it three times and kick the field goal.
Redskins at Eagles (-5): As we noted the first time the Eagles faced the Redskins this year, the Redskins no longer have the same significant matchup advantages they once did over Philly, most notably at the wide receiver position against the Eagles' defensive backs. This time around, the Redskins' banged-up secondary will have to figure out a way to slow down Carson Wentz and the Eagles' third-ranked offense.
• Picks against the spread: Rams (-3.5), Panthers (-3), Jaguars (-3), 49ers (+6),
• 2017 season, straight up: 55-36 (.604)
• 2017 season, ATS: 15-9 (.625)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
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