June 08, 2015

Tale of the tape: A statistical look at DeMarco Murray vs LeSean McCoy

By Jimmy Kempski
PhillyVoice Staff

Patrick Semansky/AP

The Eagles essentially traded LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso and DeMarco Murray.

The Eagles went from one great running back to another this offseason. Out is the shifty, dynamic LeSean McCoy; in is powerful sledgehammer DeMarco Murray. Over the course of their careers, both McCoy and Murray ran behind offensive lines that were at times stellar, at other times not so much. First, their basic stats:

Player	Games	Att	Yds	YPC	TD
LeSean McCoy	90	1461	6792	4.65	44
DeMarco Murray	53	934	4526	4.85	28

Here, we'll take a deeper look at McCoy and Murray from a statistical standpoint, and determine which back has the edge in 10 different categories: Durability, Age/wear/tear, cost, receiving capabilities, short yardage, explosive plays as a runner, explosive plays as a receiver, yards after contact, fumbles, and #culture.

Durability

In six NFL seasons, McCoy has missed a total of just five games because of injury, and played in all 16 games four times. (We'll give McCoy credit for playing in all 16 games in 2010, because he sat out the meaningless Week 17 game when the Eagles were already locked into their playoff seed). In four seasons, Murray has missed nine games, and has just one season in which he played in all 16 games.

Edge: McCoy

Age, wear/tear

LeSean McCoy has been in the league two years longer, but Murray is actually seven months older. Here are the projected starters for every team in the NFL, ranked by age:

Age rank	Player	Team	Birthday	Age
Oldest	Frank Gore	Colts	5/14/1983	32
2	Adrian Peterson	Vikings	3/21/1985	30
3	Rashad Jennings	Giants	3/26/1985	30
4	Justin Forsett	Ravens	10/14/1985	29
5	Matt Forte	Bears	12/10/1985	29
6	Marshawn Lynch	Seahawks	4/22/1986	29
7	Joique Bell	Lions	8/4/1986	28
8	Arian Foster	Texans	8/24/1986	28
9	LeGarrett Blount	Patriots	12/5/1986	28
10	Jamaal Charles	Chiefs	12/27/1986	28
11	Jonathan Stewart	Panthers	3/21/1987	28
12	Darren McFadden	Cowboys	8/27/1988	27
13	DeMarco Murray	Eagles	2/12/1988	27
14	Chris Ivory	Jets	3/22/1988	27
15	LeSean McCoy	Bills	7/12/1988	26
16	Alfred Morris	Redskins	12/12/1988	26
17	Doug Martin	Buccaneers	1/13/1989	26
18	Andre Ellington	Cardinals	2/3/1989	26
19	Mark Ingram	Saints	12/21/1989	25
20	Eddie Lacy	Packers	1/1/1991	24
21	C.J. Anderson	Broncos	2/10/1991	24
22	Latavius Murray	Raiders	2/21/1991	24
23	Lamar Miller	Dolphins	4/25/1991	24
24	Carlos Hyde	49ers	9/20/1991	23
25	Le'Veon Bell	Steelers	2/18/1992	23
26	Devonta Freeman	Falcons	3/15/1992	23
27	Bishop Sankey	Titans	9/15/1992	22
28	Jeremy Hill	Bengals	10/20/1992	22
29	Isaiah Crowell	Browns	1/8/1993	22
30	Melvin Gordon	Chargers	4/13/1993	22
31	T.J. Yeldon	Jaguars	10/2/1993	21
Youngest	Todd Gurley	Rams	8/3/1994	20

For their pro careers, McCoy has 1761 total touches. Murray has 1105.

McCoy only played two years at Pitt, while Murray played four at Oklahoma. However, even if you add Murray and McCoy's college workloads to their pro workloads, McCoy still has significantly more touches:

Player	College touches	Pro touches	Total touches
LeSean McCoy (2007-2014)	649	1761	2410
DeMarco Murray (2007-2014)	916	1105	2021

Murray famously had an enormous workload in 2014, when he had 449 regular season touches, and 497 if you include the playoffs. However, it's not as if McCoy hasn't had a huge workload himself. Over the last two seasons, McCoy has 706 total touches. McCoy led the NFL in carries in 2013, and was second in 2014, whereas Murray's 2014 season was the first time he ever had more than 217 carries.

Edge: Murray

Cost

Cap numbers, by year, via overthecap.com:

Year	LeSean McCoy	DeMarco Murray
2015	$5,500,000	$5,000,000
2016	$7,675,000	$8,000,000
2017	$8,875,000	$9,000,000
2018	$8,975,000	$9,000,000
2019	$9,050,000	$9,000,000

Their cap hits are roughly the same. However, I think the difference here is that the Eagles are in a better position than the Bills in years 3-5 if they want to get out early. The key numbers in the charts below are the two rows all the way to the right, which show the cap hits/savings if cut.

Murray:

McCoy:

McCoy would have counted for roughly $12 million against the cap in 2015 if he were still on the team, and the Eagles hadn't worked out some sort of contract extension with him.

Edge: Murray

As a receiver

The Eagles have always made it a priority to get the ball in the hands of their running backs in the passing game, which is going to skew McCoy's numbers here to some degree. Nevertheless, McCoy's career receiving numbers are far better than Murray's.

Avg receiving numbers/year	Rec	Yards	TD	YPC	20+
LeSean McCoy	50	380.3	1.7	7.6	3.7
DeMarco Murray	42.8	300	0.25	7.0	1.5

However, McCoy's numbers were way down in 2014, while Murray's were up:

2014 receiving	Rec	Yards	TD	YPC	20+
LeSean McCoy	28	155	0	5.5	0
DeMarco Murray	57	416	0	7.3	3

Murray will be in an offense that utilizes their backs in the passing game more than he's used to in Dallas, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts, but for now we'll call McCoy's down 2014 an anomaly until we see him string a couple down seasons together in that regard.

Edge: McCoy

Short yardage

We'll define "short yardage" situations here as all runs when there were 1-3 yards to go for a first down, or 1st and goal from the 3-yard line or closer. The numbers in those situations:

Short yardage	Att	Yds	YPC	TD	1st downs	1st down %
DeMarco Murray	149	653	4.4	17	107	71.8%
LeSean McCoy	245	1160	4.7	26	159	64.9%

Murray's 71.8 percent career first down conversion rate in 1-3 yards-to-go situations is outstanding. I always felt that McCoy was underrated as a short-yardage runner, and the difference between McCoy and Murray isn't great, but McCoy is simply not on Murray's level on short yardage plays.

Murray has also been a more effective runner in the red zone.

Red zone	Att	Yds	YPC	TD	TD %
DeMarco Murray	129	364	2.8	26	20.2%
LeSean McCoy	220	539	2.5	32	14.5%

Edge: Murray

Explosive plays

When we think of LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray, most would perceive McCoy to be the more explosive player. That's not necessarily true.

For his career, LeSean McCoy has 47 rushes of 20+ yards, and 12 rushes of 40+ yards. DeMarco Murray has 35 rushes of 20+ yards and 9 rushes of 40+ yards. However, when you factor in their career rushing attempt totals, Murray has runs of 20+ or 40+ yards more frequently than LeSean McCoy.

20+ yard runs	Attempts	20+ yard gains	Attempts in between 20+ yard gains
DeMarco Murray	934	35	26.7
LeSean McCoy	1461	47	31.1

40+ yard runs	Attempts	40+ yard gains	Attempts in between 20+ yard gains
DeMarco Murray	934	9	103.8
LeSean McCoy	1461	12	121.8

However, in the passing game, McCoy has far more explosive plays. For his career, McCoy has 22 receptions of 20+ yards, 5 of which went for 40+ yards. DeMarco Murray has 6 receptions of 20+, and has no receptions of 40+ yards. The Eagles were of course a far better screen team both in the Andy Reid and Chip Kelly years, which helps McCoy, but that is still a rather big difference in numbers.

Edge: Murray as a rusher, McCoy as a receiver

Yards after contact

In 2014, Murray had 998 yards after contact, which led the NFL, as it should considering he carried the ball far more than any other back. This is an area where you would expect Murray to be better than McCoy, and he is. Here are Murray's and McCoy's average yards after contact, sorted from their best years to their worst. (Number via ProFootballFocus)

Year	Player	Attempts	Avg yds after contact
2011	DeMarco Murray	164	3.01
2010	LeSean McCoy	207	2.98
2013	DeMarco Murray	217	2.71
2014	DeMarco Murray	392	2.54
2012	LeSean McCoy	200	2.52
2011	LeSean McCoy	273	2.51
2012	DeMarco Murray	161	2.48
2013	LeSean McCoy	314	2.38
2009	LeSean McCoy	155	2.25
2014	LeSean McCoy	312	2.06

Two of the three worst seasons for average yards per contact among the two players were McCoy's 2013 and 2014 seasons. McCoy's 2014 season was the worst of the group, at a paltry 2.06 average yards after contract.

Last year, many Eagles observers debated whether or not LeSean McCoy looked the same as he used to. While the Eagles certainly had their difficulties staying healthy along their offensive line, McCoy didn't help matters much by not breaking tackles or making guys miss like he did in previous seasons. There is some evidence here that he is in decline.

Edge: Murray

Fumbles

In 2014, DeMarco Murray fumbled five times during the regular season on 449 total touches. He lost all five. He also had a devastating fumble against the Packers in the playoffs in which he had nothing but open space in front of him, but Julius Peppers was able to lunge at him and pop it out. Clearly, Murray fumbled more than you would like last year, although obviously, he touched the football far more than any player in the league.

LeSean McCoy wasn't without his issues fumbling the football last year. He fumbled four times, losing three. McCoy often carries the ball way away from his body carelessly (see picture at the top of this post), and in the past, somehow it did not bite him as much as it probably should have. Last year it caught up to him a bit.

Career fumbles	Touches	Fumbles	Touches in between fumbles
LeSean McCoy	1761	14	125.8
DeMarco Murray	1105	12	92.1

Edge: McCoy

#Culture

I don't have any numbers to back this one up, but I think we can all agree at this point that McCoy is a bit of a jackass. #Analysis.

Edge: Murray

Overall

Stat	LeSean McCoy	DeMarco Murray
Durability	X
Age, wear/tear		X
Cost		X
As a receiver	X
Short yardage		X
Explosive plays (runs)		X
Explosive plays (receptions)	X
Yards after contact		X
Fumbles	X
#Culture		X