September 11, 2016
In football, the 53-man roster projection has become a staple of beat coverage throughout the summer. The Eagles writers even have their own competition to see who among them is the most accurate forecaster, and this year’s title just so happens to belong to PhillyVoice:
With 51 correct roster predictions (6/10 on the practice squad), the winner of the Eagles media 53-man roster projection contest is... Me. 🏆
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) September 5, 2016
There are legitimate reasons to focus on the 53. As we see on “Hard Knocks” every year, teams always have competitive battles for spots at the bottom of the roster. Some of those role players can eventually make an impact. A few seasons ago, Danny Amendola was a young whippersnapper trying to catch on as the Cowboys fifth receiver.
There aren’t as many moving parts on a basketball roster, but the Sixers do their best to make things interesting. With the start of training camp two weeks away, I’ll try to predict how Bryan Colangelo and the front office eventually whittle the roster down from 20 (the offseason limit) to 15 (the regular-season limit).
My goal is to write one more of these in the middle of the preseason when we have a little more info, and since nobody else is allowed compete with me, I automatically win the Philadelphia championship.
Let’s start with the opening night depth chart and then delve into the potential decisions Colangelo and co. will have to make:
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| PG | Jerryd Bayless | Sergio Rodriguez | T.J. McConnell | Cat Barber |
| SG | Gerald Henderson | Nik Stauskas | Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | Brandon Paul |
| SF | Robert Covington | Hollis Thompson | Jerami Grant | James Webb III |
| PF | Ben Simmons | Dario Saric | Richaun Holmes | Shawn Long |
| C | Joel Embiid | Jahlil Okafor | Nerlens Noel | Elton Brand |
(Note that in many cases, the positions don't mean much in terms of being a strict depth chart. And yes, I hedged on the center position.)
Jerryd Bayless, Sergio Rodriguez, Gerald Henderson, Robert Covington, Ben Simmons, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Joel Embiid, Dario Saric
The three free-agent signings, projected starting swingman on a very favorable contract for two more years, two 2016 first-round picks, and two 2014 first-round picks are all making the team if they’re healthy. Not only that, they all project to be in the rotation with the possible exception of Luwawu-Cabarrot, who could potentially spend some time in Delaware if the Sixers feel it makes sense for his development.
Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor
On individual talent, both of these guys are absolute no-brainers to not only crack the roster but the rotation. But, as the immortal Woj reminded us last week, there’s probably only be room for one of them on the island:
The Sixers have had periodic trade talks this summer involving Noel and Okafor and plan eventually to move one of them, league sources said. Philadelphia doesn’t believe the two players’ talents are complementary.
I’ll keep them both on the roster for now, while admitting that I also have no idea how Brett Brown would make the big man rotation work in that scenario. On Sunday at The Linc, some amateur journos started tackling the question with the head coach:
@Liberty_Ballers @MaxRappaport "is nerlens going to play at the 4 or the 5?" pic.twitter.com/EpCH0S45Hx
— Russ Drzik (@Rdrzik) September 12, 2016
Jerami Grant, Richaun Holmes
Despite showing some promise early in their NBA careers, these guys might really struggle to get minutes. Grant offers some position versatility in theory, but playing a 28 percent three-point shooter at the 3 makes it extremely difficult to stay afloat offensively.
That said, these 22-year-olds both have talent, potential, and are on great contracts. I could see the Sixers trading one for the right price, but cutting either of them seems like a waste.
Nik Stauskas, Hollis Thompson
Could one of these guys get cut? Maybe. Stauskas in particular didn’t look all that great in a brief summer league appearance. We’ll see if the Sixers decide to pick up his option for $3.8 million in 2017-18. Luckily for both Stauskas and Thompson, they play the shallowest position on the team.
T.J. McConnell, Cat Barber, Shawn Long, James Webb III, Brandon Paul
The way I look at it, one of these players has to clearly beat out McConnell, who has tenure on his side. McConnell is somewhat limited, but he was quietly pretty effective as a rookie. He’s qualified to be your third point guard.
Elton Brand
Old School Chevy signed last week to bring his brand of veteran leadership back into the fold. Is he just a training camp body or do the Sixers want him around again? If one of Noel, Okafor, Holmes, or Grant doesn’t make the final cut, Brand could earn a roster spot while still being inactive most nights.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
