September 27, 2023
As a regular season player, there’s little left for Joel Embiid to accomplish. He’s finished runner-up for MVP twice and finally got over the hump last year to nab the honor. The list of superstars better than him across the 82-game slate the past three seasons is rather brief.
Embiid’s playoff resume is much less rosy. That divide was magnified with his second-round struggles and coalesced in his Game 7 showing against the Boston Celtics this past spring. He’s not necessarily been bad in the postseason — though, that Game 7 certainly qualifies — but he’s never translated his MVP-level brilliance in any consistent fashion. For numerous reasons, some of them related to injuries and outside of his control, there is clear dissonance between how he performs in those contrasting environments throughout his career.
As he approaches his eighth season, areas for improvement tend to be straightforward. Sustained health and star-level shot-making come April, May and beyond are the clear avenues to bridge the gap between him and luminaries such as Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. But along the way, he can still embed new layers to his repertoire that both elevate him in the regular season and playoffs. From an 82-game perspective, they’re nitpicking. From a 16-game perspective, they could be substantial and are vital. And Embiid has long been good enough to prioritize the latter, especially with an MVP trophy now in hand.
Despite solidifying himself as one of the NBA’s utmost pick-and-roll bigs the past two seasons alongside James Harden, Embiid’s still fairly binary in his methodology. He either gets to the free-throw line jumper or rolls to the rim, often seeking contact for a foul or and-one. There’s not much of an intermediary in the arsenal. According to Synergy, he attempted 37 runners last season, which ranked in the fifth percentile. A year earlier, he logged 13, ranking in the zeroth percentile. It’s simply not a shot he frequents.
Incorporating a floater could diversify his process and render him even more potent as a ball-screen partner. When defenders crowd his jumper or stay disciplined around the rim, the process looks a little clunky. The floater might help alleviate that. Jokic is a floater connoisseur. It’s part of why he’s so versatile, capable of burning the defense wherever he ventures in pick-and-rolls.
Antetokounmpo is at his best when the push shot he’s added recently is fine-tuned and exploiting defenders parked at the rim against him. Granted, Embiid is a much better midrange scorer off the bounce and catch than Antetokounmpo, while Jokic holsters a historically great touch for a big. There are components distinguishing all three players. But Embiid growing comfortable with a counter to his sweet spots is never imprudent.
Embiid isn’t a poor scorer in that region of purgatory. Among big men, he’s finished in the 62nd percentile or better between 4 and 14 feet three of the past four seasons, per Cleaning The Glass. He’s adept with short pull-ups, turnarounds and fadeaways. Those usually occur when he’s playing off of two feet and when’s seen ample time to establish rhythm. The quick-hitters, which is how floaters predominantly arise, tend to be tricky. Operating off one leg doesn’t appear to be his forte. Streamlining the footwork and route for that may unlock his floater to extend his pick-and-roll prowess.
Evidently, it’s been a point of focus for Embiid and his trainer, Drew Hanlen, as well. Hanlen joined the “Out of Site” podcast last week and said “we’ve spent a lot of time … on the floater this summer.”
The floater isn’t the only place Embiid can borrow from Jokic to uncover newfound playoff success. Like anyone, Embiid and Jokic are rhythm-based players. The major difference, however, is how easily each allows their rhythm to be disrupted. Jokic plays through any sort of physicality and spins it into an advantage for himself by chiseling free for any worthwhile ounce of space. He is undeterred when defenders get underneath him and aim to crowd his airspace.
Embiid typically requires much more precision to remain a dominant scorer. Push him a bit farther out from the left block before the catch and things get dicier. Send help once he puts the ball on the deck and his passing vision isn’t as sharp or lethal. Play under him on a midrange pull-up and he’s less adept. Contest a face-up jumper with effective length and timing, and he’s neutralized (within reason). This is not to say all these tactics completely silence him, but in comparison to Jokic, they separate him from his contemporary.
Room to maneuver shrinks in the playoffs. Jokic doesn’t mind. Embiid seems to. One averages 27.5 points on 61.4 percent true shooting in the postseason and is the reigning Finals MVP. The other averages 24 points on 57.9 percent true shooting. The chasm is particularly reflected in their interior scoring numbers during the money maker rounds of the playoffs. Jokic is shooting 56.9 percent (337-of-592) on two-pointers in the second round and beyond. Embiid is shooting 46.7 percent (190-of-407).
Beyond a clean bill of health, which is likely correlated, cozying up with physicality could be how the big fella dons his scoring champion crown into the depths of the playoffs. Jokic is mighty cozy already, and it’s among the reasons he’s guided his Denver Nuggets exactly where Embiid wants to pilot these Sixers.
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