January 26, 2018

Super Bowl LII: Top 10 bets for Eagles vs. Patriots

Eagles NFL
012618JayAjayi Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports

I like Jay Ajayi as a long shot Super Bowl MVP.

The folks over at Bovada.lv, like every other gambling website, have a boatload of things to gamble on in the Super Bowl, other than just the point spread. Bovada's list seems to be longer than most, so I took a hard look at their offerings, and feel pretty good about my top 10 plays.

First, we'll post my picks, followed by the entirety of the bets Bovada is offering (with my bet recommendations in red).

My picks

1) Pink will not say "Eagles" at any point before, during, or after the National Anthem: I have a friend who is a Pink expert. When asked for analysis on the topic, she informed me that Pink's father is a vet who served in the Vietnam War. "I think (Pink) would be so honored to sing the National Anthem that she wouldn't add in her own context," the expert said, who did not rule out the possibility of Pink wearing an Eagles jersey.

2) There will be a scoring drive during the game that takes less time than for Pink to sing the National Anthem: This one is stealing. The National Anthem, over the last 12 Super Bowls, has averaged 1:58, per oddshark.com. In the 18 games the Eagles have played this year, there were only three games (Bears, Seahawks, Cowboys) that did not have at least one scoring drive that was shorter than 1:58. I have no idea what Pink's National Anthem time will be, but it can't that far off from 1:58. Oh, and you get 3/2 odds! 

3) “Wardrobe Malfunction” will not be mentioned at all during the telecast: The over-under number for this is 1.5, but again, it won't get mentioned at all. I think Bovada must be under the impression that the Janet Jackson "Waldrobe Malfunction" occurred during the last Eagles-Patriots Super Bowl. It did not. That was the Panthers-Patriots Super Bowl. Take advantage of their mistake.

UPDATE: I was reminded that the "Wardrobe Malfunction" prop bet is in there because Justin Timberlake is performing, and he was involved in that incident. I guess my head just never went there. Still, mention of the exact phrase "wardrobe malfunction" has to occur with time on the clock (not during halftime at all), not once, but twice. It's still not happening.

4) I'll take the Eagles moneyline at +160, please and thank you: This means that if you you bet that the Eagles win outright, you would have to bet $100 to win $160. All day.

5) I love the Eagles "margin of victory of 25-30 points" at 40/1: Do I think this will happen? God no. Can it? Sure. Four different times this season the Eagles beat teams by a margin of victory within that range. Granted, none of those teams were as good as the Patriots, but the capability is there, and a 40/1 payout is a nice long shot play.

6) The first offensive play of the game will be a pass: The Patriots pass on more than 59 percent of their plays as it is, and being the logically coached team that they are, they'll be fully aware of how well the Eagles stop the run. I'd be surprised if they didn't open up with a pass play. The Eagles could go either way. But at 1/1 odds, I'll take pass all day.

7) The penalty count will be over 12.5: The Eagles and Patriots combined for 14 penalties per game this season, while Gene Steratore's crew called an average of 13.94 penalties per game. While I think there may be something to "letting them play" in the Super Bowl, I still like those odds.

8) Take Jay Ajayi at 18/1 to win Super Bowl MVP: Ajayi has run really well since joining the Eagles. He's explosive and certainly capable of a big game, while at the same time, I'm not quite sold on the Patriots' run defense.

9) Ajayi will rush for more than 62.5 yards: I mean, if I like Ajayi as a long shot MVP play, then you can bet I also think he'll rush for at least 63 yards.

10) Dion Lewis will rush for fewer than 55.5 yards: Dion Lewis played in all 16 games this season, and he averaged 56 rushing yards per game. The Eagles have the No. 1 rush defense in the league, sooooo...


ENTERTAINMENT ODDS AND ENDS

How long will it take for Pink to sing the US National Anthem?

Over     2 Minutes          -150     (2/3)

Under   2 Minutes          +110     (11/10)             

**From moment he starts singing until the note "Brave" ends for first time.

 

What color will Pink's hair be when she starts to sing the National Anthem?

White/Blonde                5/4

Pink/Red                       7/4

Blue/Purple                   5/1

Brown/Black                  5/1

Green                           5/1

**Note: Predominant color.

 

Will Pink be airborne at any point during her singing the National Anthem?

Yes      +250     (5/2)

No        -400     (1/4)

**Note: Must be airborne from first note sang until she finishes saying Brave for the first time.

 

Will Pink forget or omit a word from the National Anthem?

Yes      +300     (3/1)

No        -500     (1/5)

**Note: From moment she sings first note until she finishes saying Brave for the first time.

 

Will Pink say "Eagles" before, during, or after she sings the National Anthem?

Yes      +170     (17/10)

No        -250     (2/5)

**Note: Must be clearly said.

 

Will Pink wear a Philadelphia Eagles shirt or hat while singing the National Anthem?

Yes      +200     (2/1)

No        -300     (1/3)

 

Will any scoring drive take less time than it takes Pink to sing the National Anthem?

Yes      +150     (3/2)

No        -200     (1/2)

 

Who will be mentioned first during broadcast?

Robert Kraft      -140     (5/7)

Jeffrey Lurie      EVEN   (1/1)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

Who will be shown first during broadcast?

Robert Kraft      -140     (5/7)

Jeffrey Lurie      EVEN   (1/1)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

Who will be mentioned first during broadcast?

Bill Belichick     -140     (5/7)

Doug Pederson EVEN   (1/1)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count. Must say Belichick or Pederson.

 

Who will be shown first during broadcast?

Bill Belichick                -140      (5/7)

Doug Pederson EVEN   (1/1)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

What Color will Bill Belichick’s shirt be at kickoff?

Blue                  4/5

Grey                 3/2

Red                  15/2

White                15/2

**Note: Predominant color.

 

Who will be shown first on TV during the singing of the National Anthem?

Tom Brady        -200     (1/2)

Nick Foles        +150     (3/2)

 

Over/Under Donald Trump Tweets on February 4th, 2018

Over/Under                   5

 

Will Donald Trump be mentioned during broadcast?

Yes                  +110     (11/10)

No                    -150     (2/3)

 

How many times will Tom Brady’s age be mentioned during broadcast?

Over     1.5        -200     (1/2)

Under   1.5        +150     (3/2)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

How many times will Carson Wentz be mentioned during broadcast?

Over     3.5        -160     (5/8)

Under   3.5        +120     (6/5)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count. Must say Wentz.

 

How many times will Robert Kraft be shown on TV during broadcast?

Over     2.5        -200     (1/2)

Under   2.5        +150     (3/2)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count

 

How many times will Giselle Bundchen be shown on TV during broadcast?

Over     1.5        EVEN   (1/1)

Under   1.5        -140     (5/7)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count. Must refer to vomiting or a similar work and say McNabb.

 

Will Donovan McNabb’s vomiting incident from Super Bowl 39 be mentioned during the broadcast?

Yes                  +150     (3/2)

No                    -200     (1/2)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count

 

Will Terrell Owens be mentioned during the broadcast?

Yes                  +150     (3/2)

No                    -200     (1/2)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count. Must say Terrell Owens

 

How many times will the temperature outside the Stadium be mentioned during broadcast?

Over     1          -140     (5/7)

Under   1          EVEN   (1/1)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

How many times will “Wardrobe Malfunction” be mentioned during broadcast?

Over     1.5        +170     (17/10)

Under   1.5        -250     (2/5)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

How many times will Janet Jackson be mentioned during broadcast?

Over/Under                   1.5

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

How many clips will be show from Super Bowl 39 during broadcast?

Over/Under                   1.5

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

How many times will the Rocky statue in Philadelphia be show during broadcast?

Over/Under                   1

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

Will "Nipplegate" be said during broadcast?

Yes      +500     (5/1)

No        -900     (1/9)

**Note: From kickoff until final whistle, halftime does not count.

 

Will Al Michael's refer to the spread on the game?

Yes      +110     (11/10)

No        -150     (2/3)

**Note: Must clearly say what the spread was on the game.

 

Will anyone except Brady or Foles take a snap in the game?

Yes      +110     (11/10)

No        -150     (2/3)

**Note: Kickers and punters do not count.

 

What color will Justin Timberlake's shoes be when he begins his Halftime show performance?

White                            4/5

Black                            7/4

Brown/Beige                 7/1

Blue                              10/1

Green                           10/1

Red                              16/1

Yellow                          20/1

**Note: Predominant color.

 

Will Justin Timberlake be wearing a hat when he begins his Halftime show performance?

Yes      +140     (7/5)

No        -180     (5/9)

 

Will Justin Timberlake cover a Prince song during Halftime?

Yes      +200     (2/1)

No        -300     (1/3)

 

Will any members from NSync perform with Justin Timberlake?

Yes      +300     (3/1)

No        -500     (1/5)

 

What color will the liquid be that is poured on the game winning Coach?

Lime/Green/Yellow                     9/4

Orange                                     5/2

Red                                          2/1

Clear/Water                               4/1

Blue                                          7/1

Purple                                       10/1

**Note: Must be clearly shown on TV.

 

Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?

Teammates                                           2/1

God                                                      4/1

City                                                      5/1

Coach                                                   7/1

Owner                                                   10/1

Family                                                  16/1

Does not mention any of the above       2/1

 

Will Tom Brady’s jersey be stolen again?

Yes                  10/1

**Note: Must be reported by ESPN within 48 hours of the end of the Super Bowl.

 

TEAM/GAME PROPS

Philadelphia Eagles       +5

New England Patriots    -5

Total:                            48½

 

First Half

Philadelphia Eagles       +3

New England Patriots    -3

Total:                            24

 

Moneyline

Philadelphia Eagles       +160     (8/5)

New England Patriots    -180     (5/8)

 

Total Team Points – Philadelphia Eagles

Over/Under                               21

 

Total Team Points – Philadelphia Eagles – First Half

Over/Under                               10½

 

Total Team Points – New England Patriots

Over/Under                               27

 

Total Team Points – New England Patriots – First Half

Over/Under                               13½

 

Will Tom Brady win Regular Season MVP and Super Bowl MVP?

Yes      5/6

No        5/6

 

Will any QB throw for 400 or more yards in the Game?

Yes      +300     (3/1)

No        -500     (1/5)

 

Will anyone except Brady or Foles take a snap in the game?

Yes      +110     (11/10)

No        -150     (2/3)

**Note: Kickers and punters do not count.

 

Margin of Victory

Eagles by 1-6 points                             4/1

Eagles by 7-12 points                            15/2

Eagles by 13-18 points                          14/1

Eagles by 19-24 points                          25/1

Eagles by 25-30 points                         40/1

Eagles by 31-36 points                          66/1

Eagles by 37-42 points                          100/1

Eagles by 43+ points                            100/1

Patriots by 1-6 points                            3/1

Patriots by 7-12 points                          4/1

Patriots by 13-18 points                         6/1

Patriots by 19-24 points                         9/1

Patriots by 25-30 points                         16/1

Patriots by 31-36 points                         25/1

Patriots by 37-42 points                         40/1

Patriots by 43+ points                           50/1

 

Which will be the Highest Scoring Quarter?

1st Quarter                    9/2

2nd Quarter                   7/4

3rd Quarter                    9/2

4th Quarter                    7/4

 

First Offensive Play of the Game

Run      -130    (10/13)

Pass     EVEN  (1/1)

 

Will the team that scores first win the game?

Yes                  -165 (20/33)

No                    +135 (27/20)

 

The first scoring play of the game will be

Patriots Touchdown Pass                                  3/1

Patriots Field Goal                                            3/1

Eagles Field Goal                                              4/1

Eagles Touchdown Pass                                   4/1

Patriots Rushing Touchdown                              11/2

Eagles Rushing Touchdown                               6/1

Eagles Defensive or ST Touchdown                   16/1

Patriots Defensive or ST Touchdown                  16/1

Eagles Safety                                                   22/1

Patriots Safety                                                  22/1

 

How many yards will the first Touchdown of the game be?

No Touchdown in the game                    75/1

0 Yard Touchdown                                33/1

1-7 Yard Touchdown                              8/5

8-15 Yard Touchdown                            4/1

16-25 Yard Touchdown                         9/2

26-39 Yard Touchdown                          5/1

40-59 Yard Touchdown                          7/1

60-79 Yard Touchdown                          12/1

80-95 Yard Touchdown                          16/1

96 or More Yard Touchdown                 16/1

 

Will there be a score in the final two minutes of the 1st Half?

Yes      -300     (1/3)

No        +240     (12/5)

 

Total Touchdowns

Over     5½        +120     (6/5)

Under   5½         -150     (2/3)

 

Longest Touchdown Yardage in the Game

Over/Under                   43½

 

Shortest Touchdown Yardage in the Game

Over/Under                   1½

 

The largest lead of the game by either team will be

Over/Under                   13

 

The First Turnover of the Game will be?

Fumble                                     7/5

Interception                               10/13

No Turnover in Game                 7/1


Will there be a Kickoff Return for a TD in the Game?

Yes      +750     (15/2)

No         -1500   (1/15)

 

Will there be a missed extra point after a touchdown?

Yes      +250     (5/2)

No         -325     (4/13)

 

Will the game go to Overtime?

Yes      +800     (8/1)

No        -1600   (1/16)   

 

Will there be a special teams or defensive TD scored?

Yes      +200    (2/1)

No          -250    (2/5)

 

Will a 2-point Conversion be Successful in the Game?

Yes      +225 (9/4)

No         -280 (5/14)

 

Will there be a safety in the game?

Yes      +650     (13/2)

No         -1200   (1/12)

 

Will there be an onside kick attempt in the game?

Yes       -200     (1/2)

No        +150     (3/2)

                          

Will there be a flea flicker attempted in the game?

Yes      +350     (7/2)

No        -600     (1/6)

 

Total Number of Penalties in the Game by both teams

Over/Under                   12½

 

Will there be a penalty for excessive celebration?

Yes      +250     (5/2)

No         -400     (1/4)

 

Will a Roughing the Passer penalty be called in the game?

Yes      EVEN   (1/1)

No        -130     (10/13)

 

Total QB Sacks (Both teams combined)

Over/Under                   4½ 

 

Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game

Over/Under                   47.5 Yards

 

MVP AND FIRST TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN ODDS

Super Bowl 52 - Odds to Win MVP

Tom Brady                                4/5

Nick Foles                                13/4

Rob Gronkowski                       17/2

Jay Ajayi                                   18/1

Danny Amendola                       18/1

Zach Ertz                                  18/1

Dion Lewis                                18/1

Alshon Jeffrey                          20/1

Brandin Cooks                          22/1

LeGarrette Blount                      40/1

Fletcher Cox                             40/1

James White                             40/1

Nelson Agholor                         50/1

Rex Burkhead                           50/1

Jake Elliott                                50/1

Stephen Gostkowski                 50/1

Chris Hogan                              50/1

Torrey Smith                             75/1

Malcolm Butler                          100/1

Patrick Chung                           100/1

Corey Clement                          100/1

James Harrison                         100/1

Devin McCourty                        100/1

Nigel Bradham                          200/1

Trey Burton                               200/1

Ronald Darby                            200/1

Phillip Dorsett                           200/1

Trey Flowers                             200/1

Ricky Jean Francois                  200/1

Brandon Graham                       200/1

Corey Graham                           200/1

Lawrence Guy                           200/1

Malcolm Jenkins                       200/1

Mychal Kendricks                      200/1

Rodney McLeod                        200/1

Jalen Mills                                 200/1

Patrick Robinson                       200/1

Kyle Van Noy                            200/1

Field                                         20/1

 

First Touchdown Scorer

Rob Gronkowski (NE)                15/2

Brandin Cooks (NE)                   9/1

Danny Amendola (NE)               10/1

Zach Ertz (PHI)                          10/1

Dion Lewis (NE)                        10/1

Jay Ajayi (PHI)                          12/1

Alshon Jeffrey (PHI)                  12/1

LeGarrette Blount (PHI)              14/1

Rex Burkhead (NE)                    14/1

Chris Hogan (NE)                      14/1

James White (NE)                      14/1

Nelson Agholor (PHI)                 16/1

Corey Clement (PHI)                  18/1

Torrey Smith (PHI)                     18/1

Tom Brady (NE)                        25/1

Nick Foles (PHI)                        33/1

Any Other Touchdown Scorer     4/1

No Touchdown Scorer               75/1

 

PLAYER PROPS

Will Nick Foles have a higher QB rating than Tom Brady?

Yes                  +150     (3/2)

No                    -200     (1/2)

 

Total Passing Yards – Nick Foles (PHI)

Over/Under                   235½

 

Total Touchdown Passes - Nick Foles (PHI)

Over     1½         (-140, 5/7)

Under   1½        (+110, 11/10)

 

Total Completions - Nick Foles (PHI)

Over/Under                   22½

 

Total Pass Attempts - Nick Foles (PHI)

Over/Under                   33½

 

Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE)

Over/Under                   285½

 

Total Touchdown Passes - Tom Brady (NE)

Over     2          (-165, 20/33)

Under   2          (+135, 27/20)

 

Total Completions - Tom Brady (NE)

Over/Under                   25½

 

Total Pass Attempts - Tom Brady (NE)

Over/Under                   37½

 

Who will record the most Receiving Yards in the game?

Rob Gronkowski (NE)                3/1

Brandin Cooks (NE)                   4/1

Zach Ertz (PHI)                          4/1

Alshon Jeffrey (PHI)                  5/1

Nelson Agholor (PHI)                 7/1

Danny Amendola (NE)               7/1

Chris Hogan (NE)                      7/1

Torrey Smith (PHI)                     7/1

 

Total Receiving Yards – Zach Ertz (PHI)

Over/Under                   57½

 

Total Receiving Yards – Alshon Jeffrey (PHI)

Over/Under                   55½

 

Total Receiving Yards – Nelson Agholor (PHI)

Over/Under                   37½

 

Total Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski (NE)

Over/Under                   75½

 

Total Receiving Yards – Brandin Cooks (NE)

Over/Under                   67½

 

Total Receiving Yards – Danny Amendola (NE)

Over/Under                   45½

 

Total Rushing Yards – Jay Ajayi (PHI)

Over/Under                   62½

 

Total Rushing Yards – LeGarrette Blount (PHI)

Over/Under                   29½

 

Total Rushing Yards – Dion Lewis (NE)

Over/Under                   55½


Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski.

Like Jimmy on Facebook.

Like the new PhillyVoice Sports page on Facebook.