September 07, 2017
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 1 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Chiefs at Patriots (-8.5): Since the Pats' AFC East division championship streak began in 2009, they have been 57-7 at home during the regular season, and 9-3 during the playoffs at Gillette, where visiting team headsets go out at inopportune times. The Patriots cheat, is what I've driving at.
Jets at Bills (-8): The Jets are going to pick off some team this season. They're not as bad as the 2008 Detroit Lions, who went 0-16, but you can count on me chalking them up for a loss in my picks every single week.
The Bills would be my survivor pick Week 1, by the way.
Falcons (-7) at Bears: After a bad Super Bowl loss two seasons ago, the Carolina Panthers fell hard back to Earth in 2016, going 6-10. The Falcons will try to avoid that same fate, as they are going to have to try to get over one of the most devastating losses in sports history. Luckily for them, they get to start off 2017 against the woeful Bears.
Ravens at Bengals (-3): After making the playoffs five straight years from 2011 to 2015, the Bengals had a down year in 2016, when they stumbled to a 6-9-1 finish. I expect the Bengals to resume their yearly tradition of being one-and-done in the playoffs this year, and they'll start that path with a win over a not-that-good Ravens club.
Steelers (-9) at Browns: Every year we do a study at 53-man cutdowns on the average age of every team in the NFL. The Browns' average age in 2017 was 24.24, a staggeringly low number. They're going to lose a ton of games, again.
Cardinals (-2) at Lions: The Cardinals are better than their 7-8-1 record of a year ago would indicate. However, while the Lions are not a juggernaut by any stretch, they were 6-2 at home last season and they have a good quarterback. Why are the Cardinals two-point road favorites?
Jaguars at Texans (-5): Over the last three seasons, the Jaguars are 2-22 on the road. During that same span, the Texans are 17-7 at home. That's good enough for me to look no deeper into these two teams for now.
Buccaneers (-2.5) at Dolphins: I may be in the minority here, but I think Jay Cutler might actually be better than Ryan Tannehill in Adam Gase's offense. The Dolphins will lose home field advantage in this game, as it will be played in a neutral site due to Hurricane Irma, but I don't care.
Wait, am I hitching my wagon to Jay Cutler? This feels like a bad idea.
UPDATE: Aaaaaaand this game was postponed until Week 11.
Raiders at Titans (-1.5): This is such a good Week 1 matchup, pitting the 2016 breakout team (Raiders) against a possible 2017 breakout team (Titans). The Titans may be a little over-hyped, but I do like them to win at home.
Eagles (-1) at Redskins: It feels a lot like the Eagles got better this offseason, while the Redskins got worse. As we noted in our five things to watch, major matchup advantages that the Redskins had previously no longer exist to the degree they once did. The losing streak ends at five.
Colts at Rams (-3.5): Without Andrew Luck, the Colts are trash. With a better quarterback, the Rams might actually be OK. In a matchup of Scott Tolzien vs. Jared Goff, I'll take the Rams all day.
Seahawks at Packers (-3): The Seahawks have obviously been one of the best teams in the NFL over the last half decade-plus. However, they often get off to slow starts, particularly on the road. In fact, the Seahawks have lost their first road game of the season 9 out of the last 10 years.
Panthers (-5) at 49ers: The 49ers' starting quarterback is Brian Hoyer.
Giants at Cowboys (-4): The Giants biggest weakness, by far, is their offensive line. The Cowboys' biggest weakness, by far, is their lack of a pass rush. Hence, the Giants' biggest weakness doesn't hinder them as much against the Cowboys. After all the nonsense surrounding the Cowboys this offseason, with multiple suspensions and the whole Zeke Elliott fiasco, this team is ripe for a Week 1 upset.
Saints at Vikings (-3.5): The Vikings looked dangerous early in the season last year, and then it all fell apart once they lost some offensive linemen and Sam Bradford couldn't carry the team. With a better OL, a nasty defense, and a healthy squad, the Vikings could be playoff contenders again.
Chargers at Broncos (-3.5): The Chargers have a better offense, but the Broncos have a better defense. Early in the season, I trust defense more than offense.
• Picks against the spread: Lions (+2), Dolphins (+2.5), Eagles (-1), Giants (+4),
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
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