November 16, 2017
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 11 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Titans at Steelers (-7): Tennessee is the worst 6-3 team in the league, and the point spread in this game reflects that.
Lions (-3) at Bears: The Bears knocked me out of my survivor pool when they beat the Steelers earlier this year, and they've won some other games they had no business winning (vs. the Panthers, for example). And just when they fool me enough to pick them, they lose at home to freaking Brett Hundley. I'm not falling for that anymore.
Ravens (-2) at Packers: This is a matchup of two teams that have had their seasons ruined by injuries. According to ManGamesLost.com, the Ravens have lost a cumulative 139 games from their players this season. By comparison, the Eagles, who have lost a ton of players in their own right, have lost a cumulative 96 games. Meanwhile, the Packers lost the best player in the league. I literally flipped a coin here.
Jaguars (-7.5) at Browns: Jaguars safety Tashaun Gipson said that the Browns will probably go 0-16 this season, which is a stupid thing to say about a team that is dead in the water and can use any kind of motivation. The Browns will likely win a game this year, by the way. After the Jags game, four of their next five games are against teams with losing records, and the fifth is the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. Still, the Jags should take care of business despite Gipson's stupidity.
Cardinals at Texans (-1): The Cardinals are deciding between Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert to play quarterback in this game, while the Texans are rolling with Tom Savage. At least the Texans play some defense? Do they even? I'm not even sure. Whatever. They're at home.
Rams at Vikings (-2.5): This game is of huuuuuuge importance to the Eagles, as it is a preview of a pair of 7-2 teams that they may have to face in the playoffs. As for the regular season stretch run, if the Birds can win in Dallas, they'll gain ground on at least one of these teams for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Over their last three games, the Rams have outscored their opponents 117-24. I'm more sold on Jared Goff as a legitimate playoff quarterback than I am on Case Keenum, and I think the Rams will find ways to put points on the board against the Vikings' impressive defense.
Redskins at Saints (-8): The Redskins really aren't a bad team at all. On the season, they have faced opponents with a combined record of 52-30 (.634). If you take out the 49ers game, it's 51-21 (.708). They've beaten the Rams and the Seahawks on the road already this season, and they're remained competitive in their losses despite missing nearly the entirety of the offensive line at times. Still, the Skins remain pretty banged up, and the red-hot Saints are just too much to handle right now.
Chiefs at Giants (-10.5): So Ben McAdoo had a team meeting, huh? That'll fix everything.
Buccaneers at Dolphins (-1): The Dolphins are the worst ranked team in the NFL in DVOA.
Bills at Chargers (-4): Nathan Peterman (no relation to J. Peterman) will make his first ever start against a pair of outstanding edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The Chargers are the best 3-6 team in the NFL, so they have that going for them.
Bengals at Broncos (-2.5): The Broncos have lost five straight, by a combined score of 68-165. The Bengals aren't good either, but at least they're not a complete train wreck.
Patriots (-6.5) at Raiders: The Patriots' defense got off to a rough start this season, but it has settled in over the last five games, when it has averaged just 13.4 points allowed per game. Meanwhile, the offense looks like it always has. I'll take the Pats -6.5 all day.
Eagles (-4) at Cowboys: I thought the Eagles matched up well against the Cowboys even with Ezekiel Elliott, in that I trusted their top-ranked run defense to neutralize the Cowboys' potent rushing attack. With Elliott out, that task should be made significantly easier, as I expect the Birds to make Dallas one-dimensional, at which point they can pin their ears back and try to get after Dak Prescott.
Falcons at Seahawks (-3): The Falcons are beginning to get hot, and the Seahawks just lost Richard Sherman for the season with a ruptured Achilles.
BYE: Colts, Jets, 49ers, Panthers.
• Picks against the spread: Lions (-3), Texans (-1), Patriots (-6.5), Falcons (+3).
• 2017 season, straight up: 95-51 (.651)
• 2017 season, ATS: 22-16 (.579)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
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