November 30, 2017
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 13 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Redskins at Cowboys (-1.5): I'm not sure how the Cowboys can be favored over many teams at this point, and the Redskins are at least a professional football team (on the field). Even at home, the Cowboys are 2-4 this season. It's hard to expect their implosion not to continue.
Vikings at Falcons (-3): Ooooooh, this is a goooood game. The Vikings are the second-hottest team in the NFL, having won seven games in a row. Meanwhile, the Falcons, a team with the 2016 MVP that nearly won the Super Bowl last year, are beginning to wake up. The Falcons' offense against the Vikings' defense is a great matchup. Obviously, this game has major NFC playoff implications. I like the Falcons at home.
Lions at Ravens (-3): The Ravens have three shutouts this season, and the Lions' offensive line stinks. That's good enough for me.
Patriots (-8.5) at Bills: The Bills have gone back and forth from impressive-looking team at times on the field, to quarterback-switching embarrassment at others. Sadly, this is the Pats' best competition in the horrendous (Pats aside) AFC East.
49ers at Bears (-3.5): The Bears are the worst team I've seen the Eagles play so far this year. I'll take my chances with Jimmy Garoppolo starting his first game for the Niners.
Buccaneers at Packers (no line): The Packers hung in there with the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday night, and now they'll face perhaps the worst defense in the NFL in the Bucs.
Colts at Jaguars (-9.5): The Colts are going to have a top 5 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, and it may be too much of a stretch for them to take a QB.
Broncos (-1) at Dolphins: Miami is ranked dead last in the NFL in Football Outsiders' DVOA. This game has zero appeal.
Chiefs (-3.5) at Jets: C'mon, Andy. You're making me get picks wrong every week because I keep trusting that you'll turn it around. Can you cut the crap, and start winning games you should be winning easily, please.
Texans at Titans (-7): The Titans are 7-4 with a point differential of -27. They are frauds, but I still expect them to get to 8-4.
Browns at Chargers (-14): The focus of the Cowboys' embarrassing loss on Thanksgiving was of course on the Cowboys, but it's perhaps noteworthy that the Chargers are actually a pretty good football team that just got off to a bad start.
Panthers at Saints (-4): This is an interesting stat from Mike Triplett of ESPN.
From Weeks 4-10, the Saints had the best passing defense in the NFL by more than 25 yards per game (allowing an average of 146.7). In Weeks 11-12, they rank 31st at 313.5 yards per game.
In Weeks 11-12, the Saints were without starting corners Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley. I originally was going to pick the Panthers to beat the Saints on the premise that Lattimore won't play, but it appears that he is practicing once again.
Rams (-7) at Cardinals: The Cardinals pulled out a surprise win over the Jags last Sunday. Do they have two upset wins in a row in them? No. No they don't.
Giants at Raiders (-8.5): The Giants are in full on tank mode, while the Raiders are fighting for their playoff lives.
Eagles (-5.5) at Seahawks: This is not the same Seahawks team you remember over the last five years. The Seahawks can no longer bulldoze defenses with Marshawn Lynch, and they're missing both Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor on the back end defensively. I think this is the next in line of teams that gets exposed by a superior Eagles roster.
Steelers (-5.5) at Bengals: The Steelers and Patriots seem to be on a collision course to a showdown for home field advantage Week 15 against the Patriots. Is it way too early to pick which AFC team you'd rather face in the Super Bowl if you're the Eagles, between the Pats and Steelers? Whatever, I'll ask it anyway. For me, I think the Eagles are clearly a better team that Pittsburgh. The Pats? Ehhhh, don't know.
• Picks against the spread: Redskins (+1.5), Vikings (+3), Broncos (-1), Eagles (-5.5).
• 2017 season, straight up: 119-57 (0.676)
• 2017 season, ATS: 26-18-1 (0.589)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
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