December 07, 2017

Week 14 NFL picks

Eagles NFL
\120617CarsonWentz2 Matt Marton/AP

Little publicized fact: Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were the first two picks of the 2016 NFL Draft.

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 14 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

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Saints (-1) at Falcons: Hey hey! A must-see Thursday night game! The Saints took command of the NFC South when they completed a sweep of the Panthers last week. The Saints and Falcons will play twice over the next three weeks, and if the Saints can win either one of them, they will all but wrap up the division.

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Colts at Bills (no line): The Bills have been one of the healthiest teams in the NFL this season, while the Colts have been far from it.

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Vikings (-2.5) at Panthers: This is going to be a fun, old school matchup between two teams with really good defenses. I trust the Vikings' very talented receivers to make more plays they anyone the Panthers have offensively.

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Bears at Bengals (-6): The Bears just want it to be January already.

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Packers (-3) at Browns: The Browns' remaining schedule: Packers, Ravens, At Bears, At Steelers.

They have that Bears game circled on their calendar. That may be their only chance to win a game this season. 

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49ers at Texans (-2.5): Last week, I picked the 49ers to beat the Bears on the road. I can't pick a two-win team to win two road games in a row, right?

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Raiders at Chiefs (-4): I know that the week I stop picking the Chiefs, they'll finally win a football game again. I'm going down with the ship.

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Lions at Buccaneers (no line): The Lions' four remaining opponents have a combined record of 18-30. If they lose any of them, they're done. I think they survive another week against a garbage Bucs defense.

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Cowboys (-4) at Giants: After the 49ers lost last week, the Giants presently are in line for the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, where they will almost certainly take a quarterback. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have played better since taking back-to-back beatings from the Falcons and Eagles.

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Titans (-3) at Cardinals: The Titans have a -16 point differential and somehow they're 8-4. I'm calling their bluff. This is not a playoff-worthy team, but Tennessee is going to make it and be an easy out in the first round.

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Jets (-1) at Broncos: The Broncos' defense has been God-awful ever since the Eagles 50-burgered them.

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Redskins at Chargers (-6): The Chargers are suddenly tied for the AFC West lead. How in the hell did that happen? They're probably going to win that division.

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Seahawks at Jaguars (-2.5): Jaguars corner Jalen Ramsey sounds a lot like the Eagles did last week before they played Seattle.

They gon' lose.

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Eagles at Rams (-2): The Eagles will try to make this a grind it out rushing attack game, as the Rams' biggest weakness is defending the run. The Eagles have a significant advantage on the ground, while I don't see a big difference in these two teams through the air.

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Ravens at Steelers (-5.5): The Ravens have won three straight. For selfish reasons, I'm grateful for that, seeing as the NFL didn't flex that game out of prime time in favor of Eagles-Rams. Anyway, the Ravens are an inferior team to the Steelers.

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Patriots (-11) at Dolphins: The Dolphins are trash, and the Pats aren't.


• Picks against the spread: Vikings (-2.5), Packers (-3), Jets (-1).


• 2017 season, straight up: 130-62 (0.677)
• 2017 season, ATS: 27-21-1 (0.561)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)


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