January 06, 2024
Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have one last chance to get right before the playoffs begin.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 18 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Steelers (-3.5) at Ravens: The Ravens already wrapped up the 1 seed in the AFC and will be resting starters, while the Steelers are still fighting to get into the playoffs. Like we did last week, let's list all of the backup quarterbacks playing this week, whether they're filling in for a starter who got hurt or benched, or simply resting in advance of the playoffs:
One shy of half of the league! Picking Week 18 games is kinda like picking preseason games in many cases.
Steelers-Ravens and Texans-Colts are both Saturday games, by the way. Steelers-Ravens starts at 4:30 p.m. EST, and Texans-Colts is at 8:15 p.m. EST. BOOOOOOOOOO!
Texans (-1) at Colts: This is essentially a playoff game. The winner is in, as a wildcard at a minimum. And then if the Jaguars also lose to the Titans then the winner of this game will win the AFC South. NFL Coach of the Year honors will likely go to the Browns' Kevin Stefanski, but DeMeco Ryans (Texans) and Shane Steichen (Colts) are also deserving candidates as well.
I just want to see C.J. Stroud in a (real) playoff game, so give me Houston.
Falcons at Saints (-3): All of the NFC South teams suck, but the Saints are pretty clearly better than the Falcons. If the Bucs lose to the Panthers then the winner of this game will win the NFC South. If the Bucs win, they're both eliminated.
Browns at Bengals (-7): The Browns signed Jeff Driskel off the street last weekend, and he'll get the start in place of a resting Joe Flacco since the Browns are already locked into the 5 seed. The Bengals are eliminated and playing for stats.
I have a Jeff Driskel story from the 2016 Senior Bowl.
To begin, players competing at the Senior Bowl have a wide assortment of things on their bodies measured -- Height, weight, arm length, wingspan, and hand size are some of the basics. At the 2016 Senior Bowl, the organizers announced nine players who had "deformed pinky fingers," and thus their hand measurements would come with an asterisk. And so, I found all nine players and asked if I could take pictures of their deformed pinky fingers. I'm still waiting for my Pulitzer for that story.
The making of that story was not easy, as you might imagine. During the media availability dinner, I was able to discretely ask most of the players for pictures of their deformed pinky fingers, which was weird and awkward, but at least the embarrassment factor was limited to me and those individual players. The exception was Driskel, who is a quarterback, Quarterbacks spoke at a podium at the event, so a one-on-one conversation wasn't an option.
For him, I had no choice but to win a question faceoff against the other reporters in attendance while yelling something to the effect of, "HEY JEFF, CAN I TAKE A PICTURE OF YOUR DEFORMED PINKY FINGER?!?" The other reporters in attendance naturally looked at me like I was some sort of hand fetish creepy weirdo. Driskel declined, saying, "That's too weird."
It should come as no surprise that Driskel has a 1-9 career NFL record. Give me the Bengals.
Jaguars (-3.5) at Titans: This game scares me for Doug Pederson and the Jaguars, as Trevor Lawrence may or may not play, and the 5-11 Titans are at least competent at home (4-4). If the Jags win, they win the division, so they have way more to play for in this game, but I believe that if there's one thing that Mike Vrabel does well, it's get his players to give good effort. I'll take the Jags, I suppose, but I'd be cautious on that one.
Vikings at Lions (-3.5): The Lions can be no worse than the 3 seed, but they can clinch the 2 seed if they win and both the Cowboys and Eagles lose. That feels like a deep longshot, but the Lions are playing their starters anyway.
The Vikings aren't eliminated yet, and they can get in if all of the following things happen:
Again, longshot.
Ultimately, I just can't pick a team being quarterbacked by Nick Mullens.
Jets at Patriots (-1.5): Bill Belichick has beaten the Jets in 15 (!) straight games. It would almost be fitting if he lost this final game against them, completing his downfall with the Patriots, post-Brady. But I think he gets one last win over the team he has owned over the last quarter century.
Buccaneers (-4.5) at Panthers: If the Bucs win, they're NFC South champs. They shouldn't need any more motivation than that.
Bears at Packers (-3): The Packers are the chalk pick here, since they'll be in the playoffs with a win. However, this Bears team has played pretty well down the stretch. The coaching staff seems safe from mass firings, but would probably like to leave no doubt on their job statuses with one last win this season. Meanwhile, Justin Fields is playing for his job as the long-term starting quarterback in Chicago, and his teammates reportedly don't want to start over with a rookie next season.
I kinda like the Bears to play spoiler.
Cowboys (-13) at Commanders: If the Cowboys win, they're in. They have not really played all that well recently, and likely would have lost three straight if officials hadn't handed them a win Week 17 against the Lions. However, in the Commanders they get a wretched 4-12 team that has lost 7 straight and seemingly can't wait to get on a plane to Cabo.
Broncos at Raiders (-2.5): Who cares?
Chiefs at Chargers (-3.5): The Chiefs are locked into the 3 seed, so they're resting starters and Blaine Gabbert will start.
Rams at 49ers (-4): One of the ripple effects of the Eagles losing to the Cardinals last week was that it allowed the 49ers to clinch the 1 seed and rest starters, a big advantage for them heading into the playoffs.
The Rams clinched a wildcard berth, though it remains to be seen whether they'll be the 6 seed or the 7 seed. Neither seed is obviously better than the other, so they too will be resting starters.
This is basically a preseason game.
Eagles (-5.5) at Giants: The Eagles can still win the NFC East with a win over the Giants and a Cowboys loss. That's a longshot. This game for the Eagles is more about trying to right the ship before the start of the playoffs than it is about any hopes of winning the division. And so, they'll play their starters.
In Week 16 against the Giants, the Eagles probably would have won in a blowout if not for a Dallas Goedert slip that led to a Giants pick-six and a weird special teams play in which Olamide Zaccheaus jacked up Boston Scott, eventually leading to an easy Giants TD. They won anyway, but it was closer than it should have been.
It's hard to feel confident in any way about this Eagles team at the moment, but the Giants have almost nothing going for them whatsoever. The Eagles should win. To be determined if it's hope-inspiring in any way. (I doubt it.)
Seahawks (-2.5) at Cardinals: I'm sure that beating the Eagles Week 17 felt good for the Cardinals, but that was a very costly win as it knocked them down the draft order several spots. If they had lost, they'd currently be second in the draft order. Instead, they're fourth.
If they intended on replacing Kyler Murray with a rookie quarterback, that'll now be more difficult to do in the draft, and if they intended on sticking with Murray they will have missed out on a chance to acquire a king's ransom for the second overall pick. If they win again, they could conceivably fall all the way down to seventh in the draft order. I'm betting on them tanking here.
The Seahawks can still get in with a win and a Packers loss, which is the same setup they faced Week 18 a year ago.
Bills (-2.5) at Dolphins: This is the main event of the Week 18 slate of games, and it's for the AFC East title. The Dolphins are already in the playoffs, while the Bills have not yet clinched.
The Bills have been one of the best teams in the NFL from December on, as they have roared back from the brink of elimination and now look like they might be a big problem in the AFC playoffs.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 1-4 against teams with winning records and they'll be without starters Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard, and Connor Williams. They could also be without WR Jaylen Waddle, RB Raheem Mostert, and LB Jerome Baker, who are all listed as questionable.
• Last 9 years, ATS: 386-334-19 (0.535)
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