April 04, 2016
Chris Szagola/AP
Philadelphia Flyers' Brayden Schenn, left, talks things over with Shayne Gostisbehere.
UPDATE [April 5, 5:30 p.m.] -- The Flyers currently have a game in hand on Detroit and two on Boston -- those two teams will face one another on Thursday night -- with all three tied at 91 points. If the Flyers beat Detroit in regulation on Wednesday night, they'll be able to clinch a playoff spot with a win regulation win over Toronto on Thursday at the Wells Fargo Center.
That's crazy to think about when you consider that sportsclubstats.com gave them just a 2.1 percent chance of making the playoffs as recently as 38 days ago (Feb. 28).
Now, a win over the Red Wings will improve their chances of making the playoffs to 97.2 percent -- a 17.6 percent improvement over their current odds of 79.6 percent. And if the Flyers are able to get at least a point, they'll improve their chances by 1.6 percent.
A loss, however, would drop them down to a 60.7 percent chance.
With their 6-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday, the Philadelphia Flyers remained one point ahead of the Boston Bruins for the final Eastern Conference wild card spot and two points behind the seventh-seeded New York Islanders.
The good news for the Flyers is that they have a game in hand on pretty much every team they're going to need to fight off over the final week of the 2015-16 NHL season.
| TM | GP | W-L-OL | PTS | |
| METROPOLITAN | ||||
| 1 | Capitals | 78 | 55-17-6 | 116 |
| 2 | Penguins | 79 | 46-25-8 | 100 |
| 3 | Rangers | 78 | 43-26-9 | 95 |
| ATLANTIC | ||||
| 1 | Panthers | 78 | 44-25-9 | 97 |
| 2 | Lightning | 78 | 45-28-5 | 95 |
| 3 | Red Wings | 79 | 40-28-11 | 91 |
| WILD CARD | ||||
| 1 | Islanders | 77 | 42-26-9 | 93 |
| 2 | Flyers | 78 | 39-26-13 | 91 |
| ---- | ||||
| X | Bruins | 79 | 41-30-8 | 90 |
Not only will the Flyers have to fend off the Boston Bruins, who lost to the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday, but they'll also need to keep an eye on the Red Wings. As those two teams fight it out for the final spot in the Atlantic Division, Dave Hakstol's team must stay ahead of both. If not, the loser of that battle could still sneak in and take the second wild card from them.
It's a strange place in which these Flyers find themselves. As recently as late February, they had less than a three percent chance to qualify for the postseason, according to sportsclubstats.com.
Now, thanks to a 13-4-2 record since February 25th, the site gives the Flyers an 78.7 percent chance of playing beyond next weekend, even after their loss to the Penguins -- they had a 85.9 percent chance prior to the loss.
And in order to guarantee themselves of that, they'll need to grab six points over their last four games, giving them 97 on the season. In other words, the Bruins can, at most, finish with 96 points and as long as the Flyers finish ahead of them, they're guaranteed a spot. That also means that with each ensuing Bruins' loss, the required point total will drop for the Flyers.
That, unfortunately, is where it ceases being easy to follow.
See, the Flyers are still in play for the third spot in the Metropolitan Division -- as well as the other wild card spot. They'll need some help from the team ahead of them -- the New York Rangers -- for that to happen, and Sunday's loss in Pittsburgh didn't help their cause. Currently, the Rangers (95 points) are four points ahead of the Flyers with four games remaining. Since the most total points with which the Flyers can finish, New York will need to go just 2-2-0 or better in order to hold them off.
Finally, there is the Islanders (93 points), who are two points up on the Flyers with a game in hand. The teams will face off in the final game of the regular season, so the Flyers could almost negate their current advantage with a win next Sunday. But in the meantime, the Islanders could put enough distance between the two teams and render that game meaningless.
That being said, the Flyers are currently in great position to make the Stanley Cup playoffs. Here's a look at how their chances of doing so will be impacted based on their record over the final week of the season.
| TOTAL POINTS | W | L | OT | ODDS |
| 99 | 4 | 0 | 0 | In |
| 98 | 3 | 0 | 1 | In |
| 97 | 3 | 1 | 0 | In |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | In | |
| 96 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 99% |
| 1 | 0 | 3 | 98.4 | |
| 95 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 90.7 |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 86.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 4 | 83.4 | |
| 94 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 55.8 |
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 49.4 | |
| 93 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 26.7 |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 20.9 | |
| 92 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4.7 |
| 91 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2.4 |
| OVERALL | 78.7 |
As for their most likely first-round opponent, that's the Washington Capitals, who the Flyers beat in a shootout on Wednesday, at 60.2 percent, per sportsclubstats.com. They're followed by the Florida Panthers (12.7 percent) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (4.8 percent). The more points the Flyers get this week, the less likely they are to play the Capitals.
Given their recent hot streak, that scenario may not be as far-fetched as you think.
And if they can stay hot for one more week – and carry that momentum beyond the regular season – there's no telling how far the Flyers can go.
Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
