June 02, 2015
I knew that I wanted to offer some individual thoughts on each of the top projected picks in the upcoming 2015 NBA Draft, but the manner in which to do so always felt tricky. It’s not like I’m going to be able to compile comprehensive video scouting reports like DraftExpress or offer the latest buzz from front offices around the league like Chad Ford does over at ESPN. In that case, simplicity is the route to go.
The title isn’t misleading. I’ll try to gather all of the info I can — Unfortunately, I didn’t have the time to watch most of these guys on a consistent basis during the season in the way every 2013-14 Kansas game was appointment television for me — and say what I’m intrigued by and conversely, the aspects of their games that are worrying to me. No rankings or big board, not yet at least. Don’t consider these posts as scouting reports, because they’re heavily influenced by my personal tastes and how I’m interpreting others’ legwork.
Without further ado, let’s kick things off with the player I’m 99.9 percent confident (gotta leave at least some wiggle room) will be off the board if and when the Sixers are on the clock with the third pick: Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns.
Similar to Joel Embiid last year, Towns is the only guy in the draft that most people are pretty sure can make a major impact on both ends of the floor if he stays healthy.
It sounds obvious, but sometimes we can get enamored with specific elements of a prospect’s game and forget that basketball is a game won on both ends of the floor. The Golden State Warriors, who are heavy favorites to win the NBA Finals, were second in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Cleveland, the rare finals team who wasn’t a top-ten team in both phases, has ratcheted up its poor regular-season defense to Golden State levels in the playoffs (I half-seriously call this “The Delly Effect”). You need both offense and defense to win big, which is why Towns is the best prospect in this draft class by a decent margin.
By the way, Towns and Embiid on the same team might’ve caused the Sixers to ditch the “This Starts Now” slogan for “Too Big to Fail.” It would’ve been exactly like the HBO movie of the same name, except they almost certainly wouldn’t have, you know, failed.
Offensively, John Calipari stuck Towns in the low post out of necessity (43 percent of his touches, per DX), a role he did well in (51 percent from the field in those situations). What I particularly like is that he did so well in a feature role that primarily involved doing something that isn’t one of his strengths. The 7-footer was bigger and stronger than a lot of the defenders he went up against in college, but his post moves aren’t very advanced at this point. To be forced to mainly do one thing, a relative weakness to boot, and still thrive is very impressive.
And Towns can do so much more that post-up offensively. He’ll never be 2005 Amar’e Stoudemire in the pick-and-roll because he’s not quite that explosive, but he’s long, athletic, and has great hands. Towns also shot 81 percent from the free-throw line in college, which shows he possesses the form to at least be a pick-and-pop threat from the mid-range. This guy is not only big, but he’s also skilled, which is pretty much the best of both worlds.
Video of Karl-Anthony Towns shooting NBA threes. Ridiculously talented pic.twitter.com/J8JiKXwCxP
— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) June 1, 2015
I don’t think Towns is quite in Anthony Davis’ range as a prospect, but it is funny how similar their roles were in college. Both were the freshman star on Kentucky teams loaded with freshman stars, and each of them had to sacrifice in different ways (Davis didn’t take a ton of shots, Towns didn’t get a ton of minutes because his team was so deep). Take a look at a few of their stats in comparison, and the counting numbers are per-40 minutes:
| Points | TS% | Rebounds | Blocks | Eyebrows | |
| Davis | 17.7 | 66% | 13 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Towns | 19.5 | 63% | 12.7 | 4.2 | 2 |
They’re not all that far off from each other, at least. Defensively, Towns showcases a similar type of versatility we see from him on offense. I’m particularly enamored with how he can play both conservative schemes against the pick-and-roll or aggressively hedge and effectively disrupt the ball-handler outside the three-point line. That’s a rare combo to have. I love his ability to move his feet against guards and wings and rebound against centers, but not as much as those 4.2 blocks per-40 minutes. Remember, he often had to compete with Willie Cauley-Stein to see who could get to the shot first this year.
Not much at all, as this section will be much longer with the six or seven other prospects we touch on. Almost all of Towns’ weaknesses (propensity to foul and wildly challenge shots out of his area, predictable post moves) should naturally correct themselves with some more experience. These are generally they type of things that can be coached out of a player, which is partially why I view Towns as this draft’s top tier all by himself.
Barring an injury, Towns is the only guy in the draft I can’t see realistically dropping to 3. There was some hand wringing over the potential frontcourt logjam his presence would’ve created, but what a problem that would’ve been to have. If I’m Flip Saunders, I’m sending Towns’ name to the league five seconds after Adam Silver announces the Timberwolves are on the clock.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
