November 29, 2023
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
An injured Lane Johnson owned Nick Bosa in the NFC Championship Game.
The 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles are now three games (all wins) through the difficult stretch of their schedule. Next up are the 8-3 crybaby San Francisco 49ers. Here are our five matchups to watch.
The Niners want to run the football. In fact, they have the second-highest run play percentage in the NFL, at 50.5 percent, behind only the Ravens. The top five run-heavy teams:
| Team | Run % |
| Ravens | 51.3% |
| 49ers | 50.5% |
| Falcons | 48.5% |
| Bears | 48.4% |
| Eagles | 47.4% |
The Ravens', Falcons', Bears', and Eagles' run play percentages are skewed because they all have quarterbacks who get their share of rushing attempts. The 49ers run it a lot because they have the best all-around running back in the NFL in McCaffrey, who has 193 carries for 939 yards (4.9 YPC), and 11 TDs. (He also has 48 catches for 389 yards (8.1 YPR) and 5 TDs.)
The Eagles' run defense has been very good against opposing running backs. They have allowed 683 yards and just 2 TDs on 184 rushing attempts (3.7 YPC) to opposing running backs, though obviously none have been as good as McCaffrey.
In their three losses this season, the 49ers could not get McCaffrey and their run game going, before eventually abandoning it:
• At Browns: 11 carries, 41 yards
• At Vikings: 15 carries, 45 yards, 1 TD
• Bengals: 12 carries, 54 yards, 1 TD
In recent weeks, there have been calls for Brock Purdy to get some MVP consideration, a laughable premise given that he's not even the MVP on his own offense. San Francisco's offense starts with McCaffrey and the run game.
McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk have combined for 1,139 yards after the catch this season:
| Player | YAC |
| Christian McCaffrey | 345 |
| George Kittle | 306 |
| Deebo Samuel | 254 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 234 |
The Eagles linebackers and defensive back must get those guys to the ground after the catch and not allow good Niners plays in the passing game to become great ones, like this:
GEORGE. KITTLE. Second TD of the night!#SFvsSEA on Prime Video
— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2022
Also available on NFL+ https://t.co/gyMqx7NKs2 pic.twitter.com/yD00n8dfSX
According to this site, the Niners rank 9th in yards after the catch, which in my opinion was surprisingly low. Interestingly, the teams that rank 1-5 — the Chiefs, Commanders, Bills, Dolphins, and Vikings — have all played the Eagles already this season.
It's also probably worth noting here that the Eagles have faced two other offenses this season in the Rams and Dolphins that have coaches who come from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, and those happened to be two of the Eagles' best defensive performances this season. In those games, they were able to ignore the pre-snap motion eye candy, not get out of position on the back end, and limit yards after the catch.
The 49ers' offensive line:
| LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Trent Williams | Aaron Banks | Jake Brendel | Spencer Burford | Colton McKivitz |
Williams is in his 13th season. He has been named to the Pro Bowl 10 times, and he was a First-Team All-Pro both in 2021 and 2022. Obviously he is a great player.
Otherwise, Banks, Brendel, Burford, and McKivitz are all below average NFL starters. As a collective foursome, they represent the biggest weakness on the Niners' roster.
The Niners' biggest worry has to be Haason Reddick vs. McKivitz, who was a fifth-round pick in 2020, and is starting full-time for the first time in career in 2023. He won't be confused for an elite athlete:
And sure enough, McKivitz struggles with speed rushers:
— Jimmy Kempski (@jimmy_kemp51810) November 29, 2023
The Niners would be wise to give McKivitz help against Reddick on obvious passing downs. Or, you know, at least not ask a backup tight end to block him.
Otherwise, this is a game that the Eagles' young defensive tackles absolutely must win their matchups against this mediocre Niners interior offensive line.
#FeastinMeter™️: 7/10 turkey legs 🍗🍗🍗🍗🍗🍗🍗
(Or perhaps better stated, the #FeastinMeter™️ better be high in this matchup if the Eagles are going to win this game.)
The foursome of Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, and Chase Young is no joke. #Analysis. They all have at least five sacks this season.
| Player | Sacks |
| Nick Bosa | 8 |
| Chase Young | 6.5 |
| Javon Hargrave | 6 |
| Arik Armstead | 5 |
• Bosa won NFL Defensive Player of the Year Honors last season. He shouldn't have, as there were better defensive players around the NFL last season, but whatever, he's still a great player. He made a few nice plays against the run in the NFC Championship Game, but was otherwise owned by an injured Lane Johnson in pass protection. Johnson missed the Eagles' Week 12 matchup against the Bills, but early reporting is that he should be good to go on Sunday.
• This will be the third time that Jordan Mailata will face off against Young this season. Young got Mailata for a sack Week 4 when he still played for the Commanders.
Chase Young SWARMS Jalen Hurts for the sack 😤
— Buckeyes Network (@BuckeyesNetwork) October 1, 2023
🎥: NFL pic.twitter.com/CvoiO42F7x
However, that matchup was totally one-sided in Mailata's favor in the rematch Week 8.
On the interior, the Eagles have faced elite defensive tackles all season, so nothing new on that front. In my opinion, the Eagles' offensive line vs. the 49ers' defensive line is the best strength-on-strength matchup in this game.
In the NFC Championship Game, Smith had 2 catches for 36 yards, while Brown had 4 catches for 28 yards. That has led to some weird analysis from some folks who cover the Niners, like this:
Worth nothing that the 49ers top two corners, Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir, were excellent vs Philly last season: Only 2 combined catches for 16 yards allowed
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) November 27, 2023
Lol, were they really "excellent," or did the Eagles run it 44 times because they got 3-TD lead before the Niners no longer had a functioning quarterback?
Ward is the Niners' best corner, and Lenoir is an acceptable CB2. Over the last four games, though, PFF has Lenoir down for 17 receptions allowed on 19 targets (89.5%) for 226 yards (11.9 yards per target). If you'll recall, Nick Sirianni called a shot play against Lenoir back in 2021 when they were backed up against the shadow of their own end zone.
91 YARDS FOR THE BIRDS. #FlyEaglesFly
— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2021
📺: #SFvsPHI on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/3YLWa3OGjk
Lenoir (5'10, 200) is bulkier than Ward, so if the Niners choose to match up against Brown and Smith, there's a decent chance that he'll be paired with Brown.
We'd be remiss if we didn't mention that the Niners have the No. 2 run defense in the NFL, as they are allowing 82.0 rushing yards per game. They have a great defensive front, and arguably the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL in Fred Warner (95 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INTs). In the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles only gained 3.4 yards per carry.
Once the Eagles had a big lead there was no mystery to their offense. They were going to run the ball and bleed clock, so they faced a lot of stacked boxes. Still, they hit on some chunk runs, and if you watch the back half of this video from J.T. O'Sullivan, you can see some of examples of the Eagles being more physical than the Niners in the trenches.
Again, another strength-on-strength matchup.
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