March 15, 2022
Welcome to the most wonderful time of the year. Far before anyone could place a legal bet in the state of Pennsylvania, millions of us around the country filled out a bracket. It’s unlike anything in sports – be it predicting the NFL playoffs, Bowl Season, or any other championship. Nothing is like the NCAA Tournament and its world-famous companion, the bracket.
Let’s get to it! Four regions, three plays each, twelve picks total in the first round. We will start with Villanova in the South, but there’s plenty of sneaky value all over the bracket. There’s nothing quite like winning the office pool, but these best bets will pad your pockets while you wait.
Villanova -12 vs. Delaware
The Cats enter the tournament sorely lacking in depth and they're not the best team up front either. They do have one of the top two guard combinations in the country, which will certainly help them cruise past Delaware. You will hear a lot about Jameer Nelson Jr., but that will mostly be reminiscing about his dad’s amazing run at St. Joe’s. This is a perfect tune-up for Jay Wright and Nova as their weaknesses can’t be exploited by the Blue Hens.
Longwood +17.5 vs Tennessee
There’s just something about Rick Barnes-coached teams covering the spreads in March. Barnes is a miserable 1-11-1 ATS in his last 13 NCAA Tournament games. This doesn’t factor his actual record where he routinely failed to make it past the second round, including losing to 11-seeded Loyola in 2018. Longwood is rather good against the spread with only five teams in the nation having a higher cover percentage. Longwood is 19-9 ATS this year and we expect “20” to come against the Vols.
Houston -8.5 vs. UAB
It’s the sexy 5-12 matchup where everyone loves to hammer the upset. UAB will be a heavy public favorite here both in the bracket challenges and to win this game. But Houston is the story here and will be deep into this tournament. The Cougars are one of the best cover teams in the country at 22-12 ATS and covering spreads by an average of 17 points. The only crime for Houston is not playing in a larger conference, but their offensive metrics are as good or better than most teams in the country.
Montana State +15 vs. Texas Tech
Montana State is picking up some steam as an outright winner but that’s too ambitious against a good Texas Tech team. The Bobcats do have enough momentum to cover this rather large spread as they’ve won six straight games heading into this tournament. Texas Tech has a great defense, but Montana State is guard-dependent and has no problem playing at a slower pace.
Gonzaga -23.5 vs. Georgia State
The Zags record against the spread is just above average but that’s mainly due to having ridiculously large spreads to cover. Most of those are in conference, but even during the ramp-up part of the season we see plenty of gigantic lines for Gonzaga. The public will see Gonzaga’s 15-12-1 ATS record and pounce on Georgia State, but this isn’t a West Coast Conference game in mid-January. Expect the Zags to win by 30+ points.
Houston -8.5 vs. UAB
It’s the sexy 5-12 matchup where everyone loves to hammer the upset. UAB will be a heavy public favorite here both in the bracket challenges and to win this game. But Houston is the story here and will be deep into this tournament. The Cougars are one of the best cover teams in the country at 22-12 ATS and covering spreads by an average of 17 points. The only crime for Houston is not playing in a larger conference, but their offensive metrics are as good or better than most teams in the country.
Jacksonville State +15.5 vs. Auburn
Jacksonville is one of the best cover teams in the country which is a huge factor whenever betting a 14/15 seed. They stand the only chance of any 15 seed to pull off the upset, partly because of how well they shoot the three-ball. Auburn hasn’t looked great down the stretch and could be prime for an early punch to the guy. Jacksonville State can shoot their way back into the game, making it even harder for the Tigers to close out the game.
South Dakota State +2 vs. Providence
This line has already moved down to 2 points, and by Thursday it might be down to a point. Providence is catching zero love from the public mainly because of how well South Dakota State has been playing. The Jackrabbits ran through their conference, right through the Summit tournament. They also score points at a ridiculous clip, their 86.7 PPG is second in the country. SDST also has a solid inside-outside game with their top two scorers being a guard and forward. This won’t be an easy game for the Friars.
Loyola Chicago -1 vs. Ohio State
This is no longer an upset on the books as the Ramblers are the betting favorite in this game. The Buckeyes aren’t great, inconsistent at best. They have a tough matchup in Loyola Chicago’s veteran presence. The Ramblers have a bunch of senior leadership – with four of their top six scorers being upperclassmen. This line may move to 2.5 by Friday, so best to jump on the Ramblers before Sister Jean is plastered all over your TV!
Murray State -1.5 vs. San Francisco
The 7-10 matchup that will catch a lot of the public’s eye, especially once they read up on San Francisco. They have an eccentric coach and fly up and down the floor, making them a tight dog in this matchup separated by 3 ranking spots. But Murray State is unbeatable, at least since Christmas. The Racers are a nation-best 30-2 (Arizona has one more loss) and have shut down opponents. They are an incredibly difficult team to shoot threes against and can out-pace most defenses. This is a brutal combination for the Dons as Murray State should continue to roll.
Purdue -16 vs. Yale
Purdue is an enigma. With the talent to beat anyone in the country, the Boilermakers have shown the potential to look like a mediocre team – playing down to competition. They come off a frustrating loss in the Big Ten championship game and should use that as a catalyst to come out firing against Yale. The public will see a 13-20-1 ATS record for Purdue and jump on Yale, but that’s a losing ticket. Purdue may not cover against top teams in their conference or in the country, but they will against Yale.
Baylor -20.5 vs. Norfolk State
If you believe in betting incentive, then this is the play. Baylor is the lone No. 1 seed that isn’t the favorite to win its bracket. Kentucky has a slight edge from an odds standpoint and Baylor has been getting plenty of disrespect on the national talk circuits. Norfolk State is an unfortunate casualty in Baylor starting off a fine-tuned run.
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