March 21, 2023

How do the 2023 Phillies project in fantasy baseball?

The rankings and stat projections may provide a guide on how to set expectations for the Phillies' stars this season.

By Evan Macy
PhillyVoice Staff

Whether you play fantasy baseball, daily fantasy, or are just a diehard fan, there is a lot to be learned from how the Phillies' top players are projected to perform during the 2023 season.

There are a ton of fantasy-relevant stars on the Phils' roster, from newly acquired shortstop Trea Turner to rehabbing NLCS MVP Bryce Harper to NL home run champ Kyle Schwarber to a pitching staff expected to be among the league's best.

Just how are these and other Phillies players valued by statistical gurus and fantasy projections?

Looking at these might provide a window into how exactly fans should set expectations for individual performances from players in the lineup.

Here's a look at some key rankings and stat projections from the top fantasy sites in baseball (for our purposes, we'll use ESPN, FantasyPros, FanGraphs and Yahoo!):

Trea Turner, SS

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	Shortstop
ESPN	10th	1st
Fantasy Pros	2nd	1st
FanGraphs	21st	6th
Yahoo!	2nd	1st

Projected stats

Outlet	Slash	Other stats
ESPN	.299/.347/.481	24 HR, 91 RBI, 34 SB
Fantasy Pros	.295/.342/.472	22 HR, 81 RBI, 32 SB
FanGraphs	.287/.337/.448	21 HR, 96 RBI, 30 SB

Analysis

A trend you'll see is that FanGraphs, which uses Streamer to make their fantasy rankings, has some very pessimistic projections for players, and for whatever reason, it has Turner 21st among hitters and sixth among shortstops. The rest of the more mainstream fantasy rankings have the Phillies boasting the best shortstop in baseball. After his showing in the World Baseball Classic, maybe it's best not to overthink this one.

MORE: Injury updates as regular season approaches

Aaron Nola, SP

Rankings

Outlet	Pitcher
ESPN	5th
Fantasy Pros	5th
FanGraphs	6th
Yahoo	4th

Projected stats

Outlet	Stats
ESPN	193 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
Fantasy Pros	195.6 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
FanGraphs	199.9 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Analysis

Across the board, Nola is a top-six starter and seems like a safe bet to be in the mix for a Cy Young award if he stays healthy.

Zack Wheeler, SP

Rankings

Outlet	Pitcher
ESPN	15th
Fantasy Pros	15th
FanGraphs	10th
Yahoo	13th

Projected stats

Outlet	Stats
ESPN	180 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Fantasy Pros	182.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
FanGraphs	189 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Analysis

Wheeler actually has some better projected stats than Nola, and the duo make for one of the better one-two punches in the sport. Having two top-15 starters is an impressive thing to boast.

Kyle Schwarber, OF/DH

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	Outfield
ESPN	30th	9th
Fantasy Pros	29th	12th
FanGraphs	71st	22nd
Yahoo	33rd	12th

Projected stats

Outlet	Slash	Other stats
ESPN	.241/.352/.533	45 HR, 94 RBI, 90 BB
Fantasy Pros	.234/.333/.502	39 HR, 90 RBI, 78 BB
FanGraphs	.234/.337/.485	39 HR, 90 RBI, 82 BB

Analysis

Schwarber is going to hit a lot of home runs and walk a lot — two very appealing talents for a fantasy baseball player. The argument seems to be over where exactly to place him compared to other hitters and outfielders. It seems like somewhere in the 30s is the general consensus. Perhaps he'll wind up being a steal with the shift gone for 2023.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	First base
ESPN	44th	9th
Fantasy Pros	61st	9th
FanGraphs	101st	13th
Yahoo	73rd	9th

Projected stats

Outlet	Slash	Other stats
ESPN	.243/.335/.476	31 HR, 84 RBI, 71 BB
Fantasy Pros	.238/.326/.461	29 HR, 83 RBI, 70 BB
FanGraphs	.238/.335/.453	29 HR, 86 RBI, 76 BB

Analysis

ESPN is very high on Hoskins, who is a true outcomes guy and sees a lot of pitches. He has similar projected stats to Schwarber but he hits slightly fewer home runs and is very much at the whims of hot and cold streaks during the season.

MORE: Bryce Harper isn't rushing his return

J.T. Realmuto, C

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	Catcher
ESPN	53rd	4th
Fantasy Pros	33rd	1st
FanGraphs	25th	2nd
Yahoo	32nd	1st

Projected stats

Outlet	Slash	Other stats
ESPN	.264/.336/.456	21 HR, 83 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.262/.320/.446	19 HR, 75 RBI
FanGraphs	.256/.324/.445	19 HR, 72 RBI

Analysis

Two outlets agree that Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball. But just what that means is hard to say. He's still going to be playing more than basically any other catcher, and he can do everything, from handling the pitching staff to hitting clutch homers to throwing out base runners.

Ranger Suárez, SP

Rankings

Outlet	Pitcher
ESPN	72nd
Fantasy Pros	102nd
FanGraphs	56th
Yahoo	89th

Projected stats

Outlet	Stats
ESPN	149 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Fantasy Pros	158.8 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
FanGraphs	165 IP, 3.91 ERA, .136 WHIP

Analysis

The Phillies' fourth starter has no real consensus around what kinds of expectations are reasonable. FanGraphs thinks he's the 56th-best starter in baseball and Fantasy Pros has him nearly twice as far down their list.

Nick Castellanos, OF

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	Outfield
ESPN	77th	27th
Fantasy Pros	71st	28th
FanGraphs	281st	111th
Yahoo	66th	27th

Projected stats

Outlet	Slash	Other stats
ESPN	.267/.314/.448	22 HR, 76 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.265/.311/.446	21 HR, 78 RBI
FanGraphs	.260/.311/.431	20 HR, 77 RBI

Analysis

I have no idea what the heck is going on with FanGraphs' Nick Castellanos ranking, but clearly from his projected production, he is expected to rebound and be a 20-home run guy in 2023.

Alec Bohm, 3B

Rankings

Outlet	Hitters	3B
ESPN	94th	13th
Fantasy Pros	104th	14th
FanGraphs	116th	20th
Yahoo	119th	16th

Projected stats

Outlet	Slash	Other stats
ESPN	.272/.318/.388	13 HR, 73 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.273/.321/.404	14 HR, 69 RBI
FanGraphs	.271/.324/.411	15 HR, 68 RBI

Analysis

Bohm has been really good this spring and could honestly pan out as a better hitter than these projections say.

Taijuan Walker, SP

Rankings

Outlet	Pitcher
ESPN	117th
Fantasy Pros	110th
FanGraphs	94th
Yahoo	93rd

Projected stats

Outlet	Stats
ESPN	157 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Fantasy Pros	154.9, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
FanGraphs	161 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Analysis

The Phillies basically have a replacement-level starter in Walker. Anything better than average will be exceeding expectations.

Craig Kimbrel, RP

Rankings

Outlet	Pitcher
ESPN	140th
Fantasy Pros	116th
FanGraphs	234th

Projected stats

Outlet	Stats
ESPN	22 saves, 3.57 ERA
Fantasy Pros	15 saves, 3.89 ERA
FanGraphs	9 saves, 3.81 ERA

Analysis

For what it's worth, Yahoo had Kimbrel as the 33rd-best reliever. It's unclear how many save opportunities the veteran closer will have on a staff that is expected to close by committee.

Bryce Harper, OF/DH

Rankings

Outlet	Overall	Outfield
ESPN	158th	N/A
Fantasy Pros	113th	45th
FanGraphs	139th	46th
Yahoo	133rd

Projected stats

Outlet	Slash	Other stats
ESPN	.298/.398/.577	13 HR, 37 RBI
Fantasy Pros	.278/.378/.542	16 HR, 50 RBI
FanGraphs	.273/.377/.505	16 HR, 50 RBI

Analysis

Really, Harper's value in a fantasy draft and overall this season depends on when you think he will return to the lineup. Recent reports are extremely optimistic about Harper's return before the All-Star Break from Tommy John surgery. And there is little doubt he'll be his slugging self when he returns.