February 10, 2016
There's an argument to be made that the Philadelphia Eagles have needs almost everywhere on their roster with the exception of tight end. Everywhere else, they either need to fill holes in the starting lineup or add depth.
So why exactly would they "punt" on free agency? Because the Eagles are cheap and they hate you!
OK, so that's not really why. A recent report by Adam Schefter of ESPN got me wondering if punting on free agency could be the Eagles' approach. According to Schefter, the Eagles do not plan on using the franchise tag on Sam Bradford. He also reported that the Eagles could look into acquiring Nick Foles. Interestingly, Schefter went as far as to report it twice:
For those who missed it: Eagles will not use franchise tag on QB Sam Bradford and they are expected to inquire about adding QB Nick Foles.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 8, 2016
OK, so what does that have to do with the Eagles skipping out on free agency? The short answer is that if the Eagles let Sam Bradford and the rest of their free agents walk this offseason, they can recoup as many as four extra draft picks in 2017.
We'll explain how and why this might make sense for the Eagles:
Allowing Bradford to walk in free agency would be an acknowledgment that (A) the Eagles don't think Bradford is a franchise quarterback worth building around for a big money; and (B) they are committed to a long-term view and don't think they will be contenders in 2016. Personally, I would agree with those views.
A few weeks ago, we stated that the Eagles should slap the franchise tag on Bradford, and then try to trade him. That is one of many options the Eagles have with Bradford this offseason, but it is obviously one that is out of their control, as they need some level of cooperation from Bradford's camp as well as any potential team trading for him. If the Eagles are ready to move on from Bradford as one might glean from Schefter's reporting, the Eagles undoubtedly researched the "tag-and-trade" option.
If they determined that it was unfeasible, the next best way to recoup any kind of value for him would be to gain a compensatory pick in return.
What is a compensatory pick? We explained compensatory picks in detail last week, but we'll repeat what they are again here.
Every year, the NFL awards 32 compensatory picks to teams that lost more players than they gained the previous year in free agency. If you are unfamiliar with the basic rules in which teams are awarded those 32 comp picks, they are:
The NFL awards a limited number of the highest level of comp picks (3rd rounders) each year. However, there's no way players like Von Miller, Josh Norman, Muhammad Wilkerson, and other top players scheduled for free agency this offseason are hitting the market, as they'll be franchise tagged if they can't get long-term deals worked out with their respective teams.
If Bradford hits the open market, there's a chance he'd receive the highest contract of any free agent in the NFL, which would result in a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2017.
Similarly, the Eagles could receive lower comp picks for letting players like Walter Thurmond, Cedric Thornton, and Nolan Carroll sign elsewhere.
In the past (and present), teams were (are) not allowed to trade comp picks. However, 2017 will be the first year in which that is allowed, which increases their value.
NFL.com published a list of the top free agents in this year's class. Once you get past the six or seven guys at the top of the list, most of whom are unlikely to hit the open market, the next players in line are either aging, aren't great fits, or play positions where the Eagles don't really need starters.
In January, we published a list a five free agents who could make sense for the Eagles. I like the players on that list, but don't love any one of them. If you'll note, we called it "version 1.0," as if subsequent articles with five more free agents of interest would be forthcoming. Recently, when I sat down to begin looking for the next batch of five, I really struggled to find players I liked who made sense for my perceived direction of this team.
Not splurging in free agency will leave the Eagles with extra cap space. There's a perception that if you don't use your cap space in any given year, it just disappears. That is no longer the case. Via overthecap.com, here are the cap numbers for all 32 teams, based on a projected cap of $150 million, as of February 9, 2016:
Above, see the column marked "Team salary cap?" Why do the Jaguars have $182+ million in "team salary cap," but other teams have less? Well, that extra money is from previous years, when the Jaguars did not use up all of their money under the cap. As a result, they are a whopping $74+ million under the cap.
In 2016, if the Eagles don't "use it," they won't "lose it." That rhymes, so you know it's true. They can instead use that money to continue to lock up core talent like Fletcher Cox, or in free agency next year, when there are players worth spending on.
When Schefter's report emerged that the Eagles could target Foles this offseason, the overriding response was, "What?!? He suuuuuucks!" I don't disagree.
Then the explanation emerged that Doug Pederson worked with him in 2012, and likes him. Foles' role could be one in which he serves as a bridge to a rookie draft pick at quarterback. OK, fine. That kinda makes sense. I guess.
However, another reason Foles could make sense is the strategy of trying to recoup as many compensatory picks as possible.
There are the four types of players who do not qualify in the compensatory pick equation:
If Foles were cut and the Eagles acquired him, rule #1 above would apply, and thus Foles would not cancel out the loss of Bradford, Thurmond, Carroll, or Thornton. If the Eagles traded for Foles, obviously that would not count as a free agent pickup. (Duh).
If the Eagles signed a guy like the Chiefs' Chase Daniel in free agency, for example, he would cancel out one of the players the Eagles lost, thus costing them a comp pick. As long as you're not bringing back Bradford, does it really matter if your bridge QB is Chase Daniel or Nick Foles? In my view, not at all.
No, they could still sign players. Those players would just have to be in one of the four categories noted above. For example, the Saints just released OG Jahri Evans. If the Eagles signed him, he would not cancel out one of the Eagles' lost free agents. To note, I'm not saying the Eagles should sign Evans – he's just one example of the type of player they could target who would not factor into the comp pick equation.
Speaking at the Senior Bowl in January, the Eagles had just signed Zach Ertz and Brent Celek to contract extensions, and Roseman spoke about the importance of building through the draft over free agency.
"It’s an important message to your team that if you play really well and do the right things, and that you’re drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles, you have a chance to stay for a long time," said Roseman.
"When you draft and develop players on and off the field, you want people who come up in your system, who come up through your process, and understand what it’s like to play in our city in front of our great fans, and then they’re rewarded for production for doing that," he explained. "When you look at the successful teams in the league, they’re drafting and developing theirs, and then they’re keeping them."
If the Eagles "punted" on free agency, the Philly fan base and sports radio stations would go berserk, but it might actually be a pretty savvy strategy.
Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski
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