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: LSU has top talent, but no one steering the ship. Yale can shoot the ball very and is 8-5 on the road. The spread opened at plus-8.5 and all of the sharp money is on Yale. The wise guys like a close games.
Mississippi State has under-performed in the market and is 16-17 against the spread. Liberty can shoot the ball well. Liberty is good value, since it’s a team that shoots well beyond the arc (37%). The betting public is betting 75 percent on Mississippi State.
This game opened at 5 in Vegas. The line will keep dropping. The total opened at 148, 148.5. They’re expecting a lot of points in this game. Murray State is 36-percent beyond the arc on the road. The stronger move is the over at 148.
St. Mary’s is a top-50 team in height efficiency and rebounding. St. Mary’s is one of only three teams to beat Gonzaga this year. This is a 50-50 split, but the sharp money has been on St. Mary’s. The game is dropping and may close with Villanova minus-4. In games in which Villanova loses the rebounding battle, they’re just 6-8 this year.
Kansas shouldn’t be a four seed. The Jayhawks should be a six or seven seed, though — they have played the toughest schedule this year. Northeastern is 14th in the nation for three-pointers and Kansas is 127th in the nation defending the three-pointer. The Jayhawks gave up 37-percent shooting from three-point range on the road. Northeastern may beat Kansas on the money line, too. You’re paying an inflated price if you’re looking to bet Kansas. The smart money is saying to take Northeastern. The game is moving down, with a ton of sharp money on Northeastern.
MORE: Pick these 5 first-round NCAA tournament upsets on your bracket
Duke (plus 250 national championship/minus-150 to win the region), Gonzaga (plus 500/plus 110 to win the region), Virginia (plus 450/plus 105 to win region) and North Carolina (plus 800/plus 200 to win region)
Gonzaga over North Carolina
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