December 30, 2025
Week 17 of the NFL season is in the books, and half of the teams in the NFC are officially eliminated from playoff contention. We have one new obituary, the Detroit Lions.
As noted in our Week 14 Hierarchy, there's a little bit of a "1 seed curse" happening in the NFC lately:
| Year | 1 seed | The next year... |
| 2021 | Packers (13-4) | 8-9, no playoffs |
| 2022 | Eagles (14-3) | 11-6, epic collapse, one-and-done in playoffs |
| 2023 | 49ers (12-5) | 6-11, no playoffs |
| 2024 | Lions (15-2) | Currently 8-8, no playoffs |
Of course, the Lions lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs last offseason. OC Ben Johnson became the Bears' head coach, and DC Aaron Glenn was hired by the Jets.
That doesn't happen very often. Recent occurrences:
• In 2023, the Eagles lost Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon. Brian Johnson replaced Steichen. Sean Desai replaced Gannon, and was then replaced himself in-season by Matt Patricia. They all got fired after a brutal collapse to close the season.
• In 2014, the Bengals lost Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer. They were replaced by Hue Jackson and Paul Guenther. The 2013 Bengals went 10-6, the 2014 Bengals went 10-5-1. Both teams got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs.
• In 2007, the Chargers lost Cam Cameron and Wade Phillips. They were replaced by Clarence Shelmon and Ted Cottrell. The 2006 Chargers went 14-2. The 2007 Chargers went 11-5. The 2006 Chargers got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. The 2007 Chargers actually made it to the AFCCG, but lost to the Patriots.
• In 2005, the Patriots lost Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. They didn't hire an offensive coordinator to replace Weis. They promoted Eric Mangini to DC. The 2004 Patriots went 14-2 and won the Super Bowl. The 2005 Pats went 10-6 and got knocked out in the divisional round.
• In 1995, the 49ers lost Mike Shanahan and Ray Rhodes. They were replaced by Marc Trestman and Pete Carroll. The 1994 49ers went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl. The 1995 49ers went 10-6 and got knocked out in the first playoff game (in the divisional round).
The Lions are the latest victim, as they will have a minimum of a six-game dropoff in win total from 2024 to 2025.
At one point this season, the Lions looked like they wouldn't be affected by the major coaching turnover. There was a four-game stretch Weeks 2-5 during which they averaged over 40 points per game, as well as other brief pockets of offensive explosion. But ultimately, their offense was inconsistent, their defense was bad, and they went 2-5 after the game that Amon-Ra St. Brown did the P-Dance.
The Lions are a prime example of failing to make the most of big opportunities. After earning the 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs in 2024, they had the privilege of getting to face the Commanders in their first playoff game, and (fart noise). 11 months later, they're eliminated from the playoffs with a game to go.
On the bright side, if they lose their last game of the season, they'll have a last place schedule in 2026.
8) Buccaneers (7-9): The Bucs have lost four straight and seven of eight, and yet if they beat a bad Panthers team Week 18 and the Saints beat the Falcons they're in the playoffs with a home game lol.
Last week: 9
7) Panthers (8-8): Ever since Week 7, the Panthers have gone win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss. If that pattern holds, they'll be NFC South champs and then one-and-done in the playoffs, which all kinda feels right.
Bucs-Panthers will be Saturday. If the Panthers win, it'll feel a little like the game before the real start of the NCAA Tournament where two teams "play in" for the right to be the 16 seed.
Last week: 8
6) Packers (9-6-1): For the third straight season, the Packers will be the 7 seed in the NFC. Not that long ago, only six teams made the playoffs in each conference. Matt LaFleur is probably the single biggest beneficiary of the expanded playoffs. Without it, the Packers would've gone four straight years without even making the playoffs, and there's no way LaFleur would have survived that.
Last week: 6
5) Eagles (11-5): The Eagles got a 13-point lead in Buffalo and then they tried to run out the clock for an entire half.
That was not only stupid as it probably should have cost them the game, but it's also not entertaining at all. It's understandable that fans of literally every other team can't wait for this boring-ass team to get eliminated from the playoffs.
Last week: 5
4) Rams (11-5): Yeah, soooo, maybe the Rams aren't the best team in the NFL.
A year ago, their Achilles heel was that they couldn't stop the run. Those issues have come back the last two weeks:
| Rams run D | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Seahawks (Week 16) | 25 | 171 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Falcons (Week 17) | 33 | 219 | 6.6 | 1 |
Against Seattle, Kenneth Walker had a 55-yard TD run:
And against the Falcons, Bijan Robinson had a 93-yard TD run:
The Rams don't have much to play for Week 18, as they'll either be the 5 seed or the 6 seed. Sean McVay typically rests starters in these types of situations, but he said he's going to play starters Week 18 against the Cardinals because they need to play better.
Sean McVay said the Rams will play their starters in Week 18 against the Cardinals.
— Sarah Barshop (@sarahbarshop) December 30, 2025
“We need to play better,” McVay said.
Last week: 2
3) Bears (11-5): The Bears-49ers Sunday night game was a banger, and even though the Bears lost, I do think that game solidified their legitimacy as Super Bowl contenders. Their defense has issues, but they also create turnovers, and very clearly they can put points on the board offensively.
I think I like Caleb Williams' long-term potential for success more than Jayden Daniels'. My 2024 QB class power rankings (first rounders only):
2) 49ers (12-4): The 49ers' offense is on fire. They're averaging 42.3 points per game over their last three games, and 35.7 points per game over their last 6 games.
But Good Lord, they're putting a ton of mileage on Christian McCaffrey, who now has 399 touches on the season. He is on pace for 424 touches, and, spoiler, he's going to get a ton of touches in a game that will decide the 1 seed against the Seahawks Week 18. By comparison, in 2024 Saquon Barkley had 378 touches during the regular season.
McCaffrey's previous career high for touches was in 2023, when he had 339.
The Sunday Night Football telecast showed McCaffrey laboring through back pain against the Bears. It'll be interesting to see if he can hold up through the playoffs.
Last week: 4
1) Seahawks (13-3): The Seahawks did on Sunday what the Rams couldn't do a few weeks ago, when they stomped all over the Panthers in Carolina. They held the Panthers to 136 yards and 2.7 yards per play.
That was a tune-up for what will be the biggest game of the regular season in the NFL next Saturday night, when they'll face the 49ers in San Francisco for the 1 seed in the NFC.
Last week: 1
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