December 08, 2023
The Eagles head into Dallas following an absolute drubbing from San Francisco, with the validity of their NFL-best 10-2 record in doubt by many and with the fact that they haven't won a road game against the Cowboys since 2018.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have been playing great football and are now right on the Eagles' heels, while Jalen Hurts and the Birds are looking for a bounce back against a divisional foe and to make yet another statement.
There's a lot in the playoff landscape at stake this week. Here's how we're thinking it's going to go...
TV: NBC (Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark)
RADIO: 94.1 WIP (Merrill Reese, Mike Quick)
| Sportsbook | Spread | Money Line | Total O/U |
| DraftKings | DAL -3.5 | PHI +150 DAL -180 | 51.5 |
| FanDuel | DAL -3.5 | PHI +158 DAL -188 | 51.5 |
| BetMGM | DAL -3.5 | PHI +145 DAL -175 | 52 |
| UniBet | DAL -3.5 | PHI +150 DAL -182 | 51.5 |
| PointsBet | DAL -3.5 | PHI +160 PHI -190 | 51.5 |
| Opponent | Comp/Att (Comp %) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Rating |
| Chargers | 21/30 (70.0%) | 272 (9.1) | 1-0 | 109.3 |
| Rams | 25/31 (80.7%) | 304 (9.8) | 4-1 | 133.7 |
| Eagles | 29/44 (65.9%) | 374 (8.5) | 3-0 | 115.2 |
| Giants | 26/35 (74.3%) | 404 (11.5) | 4-1 | 138.3 |
| Panthers | 25/38 (65.8%) | 189 (5.0) | 2-0 | 95.2 |
| Commanders | 22/32 (68.8%) | 331 (10.3) | 4-0 | 142.1 |
| Seahawks | 29/41 (70.7%) | 299 (7.3) | 3-0 | 115.8 |
| TOTAL | 177/251 (70.5%) | 2173 (8.7) | 21-2 | 121.5 |
Meanwhile, here's what opposing quarterbacks have done against the Eagles' defense since their impressive performance against the Dolphins back in Week 7:
| Opponent | Comp/Att (Comp %) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Rating |
| Sam Howell, WAS | 39/52 (75.0%) | 397 (7.6) | 4-1 | 114.0 |
| Dak Prescott, DAL | 29/44 (65.9%) | 374 (8.5) | 3-0 | 115.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | 24/43 (55.8%) | 177 (4.1) | 2-1 | 71.6 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | 29/51 (56.9%) | 339 (6.6) | 2-1 | 82.1 |
| Brock Purdy, SF | 19/27 (70.4%) | 314 (11.6) | 4-0 | 148.8 |
| TOTAL | 140/217 (64.5%) | 1601 (7.4) | 15-3 | 103.9 |
Mahomes' and Allen's numbers look better if Marquez Valdes-Scantling and James Cook make easy catches, and it's also worth noting that Allen did a lot of damage against the Eagles with his legs.
The Eagles' back seven hasn't made enough plays on the football this season. As a team, they have 6 INTs. Only one team (the Titans) have fewer. They have also allowed opposing receivers to often run wide open through the intermediate areas of the field. It's hard to envision the Eagles suddenly correcting their coverage issues when they haven't played consistently there for over a month.
Obviously, they have played a difficult slate of opponents during that stretch, but they're facing another one on Sunday that put up big numbers against them Week 9. They've been both vulnerable and (mostly) harmless, and it's hard to trust them right now against quality passing attacks.
It doesn't help that this is the second straight opponent the Eagles will face that has extra rest heading into the matchup.
The Cowboys are better in basically every statistical category, and in the first meeting between these two teams, Dallas blew it more than Philly won it. The Eagles looked flawed and broken last week against San Francisco. On the road against the Cowboys, things won't be any easier, especially with Dallas working off of extra rest for this game. I think after this week, the Eagles go 4-0 to finish the year 14-3, with an NFC East title and a first-round bye to show for it — but they won't win in Dallas Sunday night.
The Eagles never win on the road against Dallas, but a Jalen Hurts-led Eagles team hasn’t dropped back-to-back games since October 2021. Which is the first domino to fall?
The Cowboys look like Super Bowl favorites whenever they play a cupcake roster. They’re far from that when they’ve played anyone good this year. Have we already forgotten that the 49ers beat Dallas by more points (32) this season than they did the Eagles?
I have faith in Nick Sirianni and this coaching staff. They were embarrassed last week at the Linc. They are aware of everything everyone is saying about them. They’re going to pull this out and rebound. Dak Prescott may carve up Sean Desai’s defense in the process, but give me Hurts to win his first road game in the massive rivalry.
I want to say the Eagles drop this game too, but I keep going back to how round 1 ended back here in Philly.
Dallas was down late, but they were driving and a had real chance to win it, yet it feels like every time they're in one of those situations, Dak Prescott's decision-making just falls apart and costs them – with credit to some huge stops on Josh Sweat and the Eagles' part.
Look, the Cowboys just strike me as a team that needs absolutely everything to go right for them, otherwise it all crumbles. And that's a hard thing to really reflect in stats, because while the Eagles do look worse by comparison numbers-wise, up until last week, they bent but never broke.
And I have a feeling they're not going to break again.
The Eagles are at their best following a loss, we just haven’t seen much of it this year. Following one of the worst losses in the Jalen Hurts era, Philly is poised to bounce back. Yes, Dallas has a ridiculous point differential, their QB has been playing lights out since Halloween, and they have reeled off 14 straight home wins, but the Eagles beat good teams under Hurts. It’s what they do.
The major concern here is the 31st Defensive EPA ranking for the Eagles. Basically, they live and die off the pass rush. Nothing else is really reliable from players to coaching. They have either needed massive plays coming at huge times in games or for the offense to build quick and big leads. Heading into Dallas isn’t easy, nor is beating the same team twice, BUT this is familiar territory for Hurts.
A lot has been made about Dallas not beating a winning team, and that’s important. The Eagles and Hurts sitting at 14-1 over their last 15 against winning teams is even more important. Birds win, 27-21.
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