March 05, 2024

Phillies 2024 preview: Bryce Harper's new role finds him as full-time first base

Bryce Harper has a new spot on the diamond as the Phillies' first baseman, but he should be as dominant as ever at the plate in 2024.

By Shamus Clancy
PhillyVoice Staff

Bryce-Harper-2023-NLCS-Diamondbacks-Phillies

Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports

Bryce Harper celebrates smacking a home run in the 2023 NLCS.

The Phillies appear to be taking the same approach in spring training as their hungry (for hot dogs?) fans are: World Series or bust.

In back-to-back seasons, the Phillies made deep and loud postseason runs but neither has yielded a third ever championship.

Philly currently carries +1500 odds to win the World Series in 2023, the sixth best odds via FanDuel. They are second to win the NL East (+330) behind the Braves but are overwhelmingly favored to make the playoffs at -250.

Before the team hits the field against the Reds at the end of March to open their 2024 campaign, we're going to take a deep dive into each positional group.

Let's take a look at an MVP at first base..

Bryce Harper has been many things in his career. A teenage phenom. An MVP. A messiah for Philadelphia baseball. An MVP again. 2024 brings something new for Harper, however, as he will be the Phillies' full-time first baseman.

Injuries have played a role for Harper over the last two seasons, but when he was on the field and in the batter's box, he's been as dominant as ever. Five years into his Phillies career, here are how Harper's numbers look:

Category	Stat
Games	581
Doubles	144
Home Runs	122
RBI	368
Steals	58
Batting Average	.284
On-Base Percentage	.395
Slugging Percentage	.536
OPS	.931
OPS+	149

That doesn't even include his postseason runs and his 2022 NLCS MVP honors. In the '22 playoffs, Harper had a 1.160 OPS. In the 2023 playoffs, his OPS was 1.097. To put in perspective how wild those numbers are, Harper's OPS was 1.044 in his MVP season with the Fightins in 2021. So, yeah, Harper is better than even the best players on the planet when the lights are brightest.

To throw out some "Tenet" logic though, what's happened, happened. What does the future hold for Harper?

Here are how multiple projection models predict Harper's stats for 2024:

Stat	b-r	ZiPS
Runs	78	83
Doubles	30	31
HRs	23	26
RBI	71	79
Batting Average	.288	.281
On-Base Percentage	.388	.388
Slugging Percentage	.519	.527
OPS	.907	.915

via b-r and Fangraphs

The raw numbers might not be quite MVP level, but his rate stats are outstanding and it should be enough to get the Phillies back to the postseason. He will once more be in the heart of the Phillies' batting order and carrying them to playoff baseball.

As for Harper's adjustment to a new full-time position, it remains to be seen how he can handle the spot as a fielder. He has the requisite athleticism that he should at least be OK there and an upgrade from the now-departed Rhys Hoskins when he previously held down first base. This Phillies defense overall has sneakily gotten better after just a year or two ago being the worst in the majors. They will have plus-plus defenders in left and center. J.T. Realmuto is still great at catcher. Bryson Stott is a future Gold Glove candidate and Trea Turner is solid enough. Can defense actually be a strength for the Phils? Harper will play a part in that coming to fruition.

As for what will happen when Harper gets some time off, the Phillies will likely turn to third baseman Alec Bohm to fill in at first. Bohm split time between third and first last season in the aftermath of Hoskins' crushing Spring Training injury. His bat doesn't play as well at first as it does at third, but in a pinch, he absolutely works at first. A move like that frees up super utility man Whit Merrifield to get some reps at third, too.

When looking at the future down the line, it's hard to envision anyone from the Phils' minor league pipeline supplanting Harper at first. This is a position that should provide minimal wear and tear on Harper to allow him to age gracefully, keeping him healthy and smacking homers in the batter's box. In MLB.com's list of the Phillies' top-30 prospects, there is just a single first baseman, Carlos De La Cruz, who doubles as an outfielder anyway. Harper is signed through 2031. That's not something to worry about.

We have the hard stats and the background info, but my prediction for Harper for 2024?

His second All-Star selection as a Phillie. His third Silver Slugger Award in Philly. And, most importantly, he'll be the best player on his first NL East-winning Fightins squad.