March 16, 2024
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
José Alvarado will be the Phillies' go-to option late into games once again.
The Phillies appear to be taking the same approach in spring training as their hungry (for hot dogs?) fans are: World Series or bust.
In back-to-back seasons, the Phillies made deep and loud postseason runs but neither has yielded a third ever championship.
Philly currently carries +1500 odds to win the World Series in 2023, the sixth best odds via FanDuel. They are second to win the NL East (+330) behind the Braves but are overwhelmingly favored to make the playoffs at -250.
Before the team hits the field against the Reds at the end of March to open their 2024 campaign, we're going to take a deep dive into each positional group.
Today we'll take a look at the bullpen...
To get through the 162-game schedule, you're going to need a lot of arms, and should a club's extend into October, then their very best stuff yet.
The Phillies have been in that spot two years running now, and their bullpen, which was one of the historically worst in baseball not all that long ago, has turned things around considerably to carry them far, but just not as far as they're trying to go.
Still, they're arguably right on the doorstep.
The Phils are heading into the 2024 season with the framework of their bullpen mostly intact. Matt Strahm returns as the flexible lefty option who can work under a lot of different scenarios – length, quick outs, spot starts, and so on – Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado are back as the go-to flamethrowers for late into games, and Gregory Soto, Connor Brogdon, and Jeff Hoffman will be a few of the immediate names looked toward to fill the gaps in between.
It's a solid, albeit maybe not totally satisfying core group, but it is one that helped push the Phils to an NL pennant in 2022 and just a painful game shy of a repeat in 2023.
To sustain it though, and give the Phils another shot at a pennant – or one step greater – depth, depth, and more depth will be the key.
As the season progresses into the dog days of summer, the Phils will have to reach deeper into their relief corps and into the minor leagues. That part is always inevitable, but with that, they'll be trying to manage through pitchers that are either out of minor league options now or down to their final ones.
Brogdon has no more, and the same goes for Dylan Covey and Andrew Bellatti, the latter of which was designated for assignment last month to make way for Michael Rucker. Rucker himself, meanwhile, has one more, along with Yunior Marte, Luis Ortiz, Nick Nelson, and Kolby Allard, who are all likely to bounce up and down between the minors in the months to come.
Prospect Griff McGarry, who was a top arm within the Phillies' farm system for a while, may also eventually get a major-league look out of the pen, but that's all going to depend on his development through Triple-A and whether he truly establishes himself as either a starter or a reliever – the situation is fluid there, but for now, he'll be a reliever first.
Then there's the closer and one key name we haven't mentioned yet.
After running with veteran Craig Kimbrel last season in a move that crashed and burned in the back half of last season and then into the playoffs, the Phillies look set to enter 2024 running on a closer-by-committee approach.
Naturally, Alvarado and Domínguez will get their looks in the role, but the 22-year old Orion Kerkering, who exhibited some nasty velocity and even nastier break upon his call-up late last season, could be the one to step up and take the job so long as he proves ready for a full-time role in the majors.
Manager Rob Thomson had little hesitation in throwing Kerkering right into the fire with the postseason last year (he made seven appearances with a 3.38 ERA and an 8.4 strikeouts per nine rate), so it stands to reason that he won't shy away now either, provided Kerkering makes the club out of camp and until he proves without a doubt that he would be in need of more time in the minors.
Like the rest of the Phillies' 2024 roster, the bullpen is a unit set to run it back with what they had already, plus one or two tweaks.
Going in, however, FanGraphs' 2024 models in terms of Wins Above Replacement think rather highly of them, ranking the Phils as the No. 1 projected bullpen in baseball going into the new campaign.
Here's a quick rundown of the top five based on FanGraphs' WAR model, with projected earned run average and fielding independent pitching predictions included, too:
| Rk) Team | WAR | ERA | FIP |
| 1) Phillies | 4.9 | 4.26 | 4.29 |
| 2) Twins | 4.5 | 4.03 | 4.04 |
| 3) Braves | 4.2 | 4.01 | 4.06 |
| 4) Pirates | 3.7 | 4.20 | 4.26 |
| 5) Astros | 3.6 | 4.03 | 4.17 |
*2024 projections as of Friday, March 15
And for a more individual look, here are the 2023 regular season numbers and 2024 projections for the bullpen depth chart as of Friday via baseball-reference:
| Reliever | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
| IP | ERA/WHIP | SO/BB | IP | ERA/WHIP | SO/BB | |
| José Alvarado, L | 41.1 | 1.74 / 1.161 | 3.56 | 51.0 | 3.53 / 1.294 | 2.74 |
| Connor Brogdon, R | 29.0 | 4.03 / 1.448 | 2.00 | 44.0 | 4.09 / 1.318 | 2.75 |
| Dylan Covey, R | 39.0 | 3.69 / 1.513 | 1.69 | 48.0 | 4.13 / 1.375 | 2.33 |
| Seranthony Domínguez, R | 50.0 | 3.78 / 1.400 | 2.18 | 55.0 | 3.93 / 1.309 | 2.55 |
| Jeff Hoffman, R | 52.1 | 2.41 / 0.917 | 3.63 | 57.0 | 3.79 / 1.263 | 2.58 |
| Orion Kerkering, R | 3.0 | 3.00 / 1.667 | 3.00 | 26.0 | 4.15 / 1.308 | 2.80 |
| Yunior Marte, R | 39.1 | 5.03 / 1.627 | 2.24 | 49.0 | 4.78 / 1.429 | 2.40 |
| Gregory Soto, L | 60.1 | 4.62 / 1.144 | 2.95 | 61.0 | 4.13 / 1.295 | 2.33 |
| Matt Strahm, L | 87.2 | 3.29 / 1.015 | 5.14 | 77.0 | 3.97 / 1.221 | 3.36 |
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