March 08, 2024

Phillies 2024 preview: Trea Turner rides post-ovation wave of success into second season in Philly

What can Phillies fans expect from Trea Turner in 2024?

By Shamus Clancy
PhillyVoice Staff

Nathan Ray Seebeck/for PhillyVoice

How will Trea Turner perform in his second year in Philly?

The Phillies appear to be taking the same approach in spring training as their hungry (for hot dogs?) fans are: World Series or bust.

In back-to-back seasons, the Phillies made deep and loud postseason runs but neither has yielded a third ever championship.

Philly currently carries +1500 odds to win the World Series in 2023, the sixth best odds via FanDuel. They are second to win the NL East (+330) behind the Braves but are overwhelmingly favored to make the playoffs at -250.

Before the team hits the field against the Reds at the end of March to open their 2024 campaign, we're going to take a deep dive into each positional group.

Let's take a look at shortstop..

It was a tale of two seasons for Trea Turner in 2023. After inking a mammoth 11-year contract to play in Philly, his tenure began disastrously and then continued well through the summer. Something changed, however. There was a call to give the endlessly struggling Turner a standing ovation at Citizens Bank Park to flip the script on what had been transpiring.

After 94.1 WIP's Jack Fritz built momentum around the Phillies showcasing their support for Turner, he ripped off a 10-game hitting streak, beginning on that ovation night on Aug. 4.

It worked.

The numbers behind Turner's first year in red pinstripes...

Category	Stats
Doubles	35
Home Runs	26
RBI	76
Steals	30
Batting Average	.266
On-Base Percentage	.320
Slugging Percentage	.459
OPS	.778
OPS+	111
bWAR	3.4

To break it up further, here his numbers split between before and after that defining ovation on Aug. 4:

Before...

Category	Before	After
Games	107	48
Doubles	21	14
Home Runs	10	16
RBI	34	42
Steals	21	9
Batting Average	.235	.337
On-Base Percentage	.290	.389
Slugging Percentage	.368	.668
OPS	.657	1.057

So, he was basically a Triple-A player and then an MVP. Night and day! Turner was dynamite in the playoffs for the Phils, too. In 13 games, he had three homers, three steals and an OPS of 1.033 while hitting .347. That's what the franchise is paying him $300 million for!

Here are how projection models are viewing Turner's upcoming season:

Stat	b-r	ZiPS
Runs	91	98
Steals	27	27
Doubles	43	34
HRs	22	24
RBI	76	85
Batting Average	.288	.290
On-Base Percentage	.341	.342
Slugging Percentage	.475	.479
OPS	.816	.821

via b-r and Fangraphs

Turner won't stay in that supernova post-ovation mode he was last summer, but those projections line up with an All-Star caliber season for a shortstop. He won his sole career Silver Slugger Award in 2022 with the Dodgers while hitting 21 home runs, a career-best 39 doubles and an .809 OPS. It's doable for him to nab that award again.

While PhillyVoice's season previews are looking at organizational positions overall, Turner is the Phillies' shortstop for the foreseeable future. His contract takes him through his age-40 season in 2033. He won't be still at shortstop then, of course. Perhaps he moves to third base or the outfield in the next half-decade. Not much is cooking in the Phils' minor league pipeline anyway. The Phillies' highest-rated middle infield prospect on MLB.com's prospect rankings is 19-year-old Devin Saltiban. He played just 10 games in rookie ball last year. That's not something to worry about right now.

As for who will spell Turner at times at short, Edmundo Sosa, 28, will be in third season as a Phillie. He has a more-than-respectable .755 OPS as a utility player across 2022 and 2023 with the Fightins. The Phillies could do much, much worse there. They'll have plenty of depth in the infield this year between Sosa and the newly acquired Whit Merrifield.

So... what's my prediction for Turner's 2024?

An All-Star season, his first as a Phillie, with no ovation required as a kick in the pants. He'll be consistently good all spring and summer right into Red October.