March 14, 2024
The Phillies appear to be taking the same approach in spring training as their hungry (for hot dogs?) fans are: World Series or bust.
In back-to-back seasons, the Phillies made deep and loud postseason runs but neither has yielded a third ever championship.
Philly currently carries +1500 odds to win the World Series in 2023, the sixth best odds via FanDuel. They are second to win the NL East (+330) behind the Braves but are overwhelmingly favored to make the playoffs at -250.
Before the team hits the field against the Reds at the end of March to open their 2024 campaign, we're going to take a deep dive into each positional group.
Today's look is at the starting rotation...
Heading into Opening Day, the Phillies should be elated with their 1-2 to open their starting pitcher rotation. The top two guys, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, both got new nine-figure deals this offseason. They're well-paid and should be right in line to aid the team in a push to Red October.
Wheeler brings big-time playoff heroics to the table. He had a 2.78 ERA during the 2022 run to the World Series in 35.2 innings. He was even better last fall, posting a 1.95 ERA in 27.2 innings. A Cy Young Award could be in the cards for him in 2024. Nola has had his own postseason success as well, but his Game 6 performance in the 2023 NLCS in a potential close-out matchup stings. Hey, that's the most recent game the guy's pitched!
Behind that duo comes Ranger Suárez entering his age-28 season. Suárez dazzled in 2021, pitching both as a starter and a reliever with a 1.36 ERA. He had an encouraging year in 2022 as a full-time starter. In a career-high 155.1 innings pitched, his ERA was 3.65. He was solid during the playoffs, too. The Phils will absolutely take that from their No. 3 starter behind Wheeler and Nola.
2023 was more dicey for Suárez, however. That ERA ballooned to 4.18. He started Game 7 of the NLCS at home. It didn't go well, as he allowed three runs in 4.2 innings in a 4-2 loss. Rough stuff. His strikeout numbers are good enough (8.6 per nine innings) and that carried over to the postseason. Cautious optimism is warranted.
Deep in the postseason, having a solid top three is all a team needs, but to get to meaningful October baseball, a team, of course, needs more than just three capable starters. That's where the worries come for the Phillies. Perhaps there's a move unseen to still be made, like a surprise signing of reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, a midseason trade or a minor leaguer who sets the league on fire (more on that soon). Until then, Taijuan Walker has the No. 4 spot in the rotation.
After signing a $72 million contract over four years last winter, Walker's first year in red pinstripes left a lot to be desired. His 4.38 ERA? Bad. His strikeout numbers fell off a cliff. His 7.2 Ks per nine innings were the fewest of any full season of his career. Ditto for his walks per nine innings.
Dave Dombrowski is never scared to be aggressive. It's easy to imagine him being that way this summer if the Phils are cooking otherwise with the holes at No. 4 and No. 5 (Cristopher Sánchez?) starter spots.
Previewing the year to come, here are how two statistical models project the Phils' top-four pitchers' seasons via baseball-reference and FanGraphs' ZiPs model...
| Stat | b-r | ZiPS |
| Innings | 171.0 | 172.0 |
| ERA | 3.53 | 3.61 |
| Ks/9 | 9.6 | 9.0 |
| BBs/9 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Stat | b-r | ZiPS |
| Innings | 177.0 | 180.2 |
| ERA | 4.17 | 3.84 |
| Ks/9 | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| BB/9 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Stat | b-r | ZiPS |
| Innings | 132.0 | 13.4 |
| ERA | 3.82 | 4.02 |
| Ks/9 | 8.4 | 7.6 |
| BBs/9 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Stat | b-r | ZiPS |
| Innings | 162.0 | 149.0 |
| ERA | 4.22 | 4.67 |
| Ks/9 | 7.7 | 7.0 |
| BBs/9 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
Those are very conservative numbers for Wheeler and Nola. Work the phones as July nears for the back end, Dave.
What about internal help? Prized righty Andrew Painter continues to recover from injury and reaching the big leagues in 2025 feels unlikely. Mick Abel, who was reassigned from Phillies Spring Training to minor league camp on Wednesday, could help this summer though. Abel is the No. 49 prospect on MLB.com's top 100. Abel had two Spring Training appearances for the Fightins, striking out four batters in 2.2 innings of work, including star slugger Juan Soto:
Mick Abel with a strikeout of Juan Soto 💪 pic.twitter.com/C6cC5DAri1
— Reading Fightin Phils (@ReadingFightins) March 11, 2024
Nicely done.
Anyway...
Questions persist further down the rotation, yes, but the Phillies are in a great spot with Wheeler and Nola, and faith in Dombrowski should have the Phils poised for another potential trip to the Fall Classic.
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