December 01, 2022
The Eagles have finally arrived to what might be their toughest matchup all season.
They're 10-1 and at the top of the NFC, but have been suspect against the run and will now face one of the league's premier running backs in Tennesee's Derrick Henry.
Even so, the Birds have kept finding ways to win – last week against Green Bay was to the tune of 363 rushing yards and a quarterback franchise record 157 for Jalen Hurts. Do they have another in their pocket this week?
Here's what our writers think...
TV: FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
RADIO: 94.1 WIP (Merrill Reese, Mike Quick)
| Book | Spread | Money Line | Total (O/U) |
| DraftKings | PHI -5.5 | TEN +200 PHI -240 | 44.5 |
| FanDuel | PHI -5.5 | TEN +194 PHI -235 | 44.5 |
| BetMGM | PHI -5.5 | TEN +200 PHI -250 | 44.5 |
| UniBet | PHI -5.5 | TEN +190 PHI -240 | 44.5 |
| PointsBet | PHI -5.5 | TEN +190 PHI -240 | 44.5 |
The Eagles did whatever they wanted on the ground against an atrocious, soft Packers run defense last Sunday night. This Sunday, they'll face the exact opposite type of defense in the Tennessee Titans, who, as noted in our five matchups to watch, have a very stingy run defense:
| Titans run defense | Stat | Rank |
| Rushing yards per game | 84.4 | 3 |
| Rushing first downs per game | 5.5 | 7 |
| Rushing TDs per game | 0.3 | 1 |
| Yards per rush attempt | 3.9 | 2 |
| Percentage of rushing plays resulting in first downs | 28.5% | 5 |
One of the themes of this Eagles season has been the wide variety of ways that Jalen Hurts and the offense can move the ball and score points. I believe they'll be able to do that through the air, as they'll have matchup advantages with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Quez Watkins against a group of young Titans corners who are still trying to find their way in the NFL.
Of course, defensively, they'll have to be better against Derrick Henry than they have been recently against other formidable rushing attacks. Assuming Jordan Davis is elevated to the active roster by Sunday, it will be interesting to see how he is deployed, with free-agent addition Linval Joseph having played well in Davis' absence.
The Eagles and Titans both have dominant rushing attacks. But there are two significant differences with these two teams:
Give me the versatile team that has A.J. Brown over the one-dimensional team that does not have A.J. Brown.
I was very strongly leaning toward picking the Titans — but the more I think about this matchup, the more I think the Eagles can handle Tennessee. They have addressed the interior defensive line, and if Jordan Davis returns they should be able to keep up with Derrick Henry. The secondary is banged up but the Titans don't throw the ball particularly well.
I think the Eagles are the better team, injuries and all, and the real trouble is coming when they play the NFC East. Philly is better than Tennessee and while this one could be close, the Birds are going to prevail (but may not cover the spread).
It feels like every week that I hear, "This is the Eagles' toughest test yet!" That just speaks to how B.S. the chatter has been about who they've played on the way to a league-best 10-1 start. That line of thinking makes sense, however, given the Titans' future Hall of Fame running back matching up against the Eagles' leaky run defense.
Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon's scheme has been conservative and predicated on stopping big-time plays in the passing game above all, but when an opponent has Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and Derrick freaking Henry at RB, it's clear what Gannon's gameplan needs to be. I expect Henry to still get his on Sunday (How his over/under on rushing yards only 84.5?) as Tennessee hopes to keep the Eagles' offense off the field as much as possible, but the Eagles ultimately have a top-two MVP candidate under center and reinforcements may be on the way with a potential Jordan Davis return on D.
Give me the Birds to go 11-1 for the first time in 18 years.
I'm half serious when I say Jordan Davis' return is the only thing stopping me from picking the Titans in this game. The thought of Philadelphia trying to deal with Derrick Henry while less than full strength in the middle of the line is enough to send chills down your spine. But I think the Eagles should be able to keep Henry from completely blowing their doors off, and though they're a slightly better scoring defense than the Eagles, they're liable to get beat through the air. Expect A.J. Brown to make a statement and the Birds to pull away.
If I'm Jonathan Gannon, I'm playing that Bengals tape back on repeat. Cincinnati successfully found a way to put the clamps down on Derrick Henry and if the Eagles can pull off the same, they'll be golden because the Titans' offense isn't versatile enough to be effective without him.
Even if the Eagles' defense can't completely shut him down, I think just being able to hold him off while the offense does its thing will be enough to get the job done. But it will be on Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen to create a gameplan that keeps the ball on the ground and methodically kills as much clock as possible. Keep the defense rested and Henry off the field. Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders should be more than capable of doing that.
It'll be close, and maybe a complete slog at times, but the Eagles can pull this one out.
The Eagles are the best team in the NFL. They have the best or second-best QB in the NFL. They have a huge weapon to move the ball down the field with either his arm or his legs on any given play. Jalen Hurts is making elite throws and it’s showing as he continues to find new ways to punish defenses. The Eagles also have a couple of issues – primarily their run defense – that can still be exploited by good teams.
All of this was true before the Washington game and remains true ahead of Sunday. The Tennessee Titans are kind of like the rich person's version of the Washington Commanders team that handed the Birds their only loss. Expect the same gameplan that we’ve seen since, except unlike the Packers and Colts, the Titans have both competence on the field and sideline.
There are two key matchups that will stand out more than anything, and I’m just not sure the Eagles can win them right now. The Titans' ability to run all over the Eagles' defensive front, and Mike Vrabel designing a plan to slow down Hurts.
Typically the first two words you hear when it comes to a Mike Vrabel Titans team are tough and physical and this 2022 group is no different. An almost sure bet to win a bad AFC South at 7-4, the Titans are coming off a disappointing home loss to Cincinnati, the same team that knocked them out of the postseason last year as a No. 1 seed.
That could manifest itself into an ill-tempered tough and physical team that arrives in Philadelphia this weekend. The most obvious narratives are A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry with the former going for revenge against the team that drafted and developed him before deciding he wasn't worth the $100 million extension that the Eagles gave him after sending significant draft capital to Tennessee on draft night. As for Henry, the big, bruising back is the nightmare for any angst-ridden Eagles fan who can't stand the organization's defensive philosophy of making due in run support with lightboxes.
The real demarcation line of this game, though, should be third downs. The Titans are No. 1 in the NFL in third-down defense while the Eagles are No. 3 in third-down offense. Manageable situations will likely define things and Philadelphia might have to rely on the passing game this week after ringing up the most rushing yards since 1948 with 363. Tennessee is great stopping the run, though, but struggles with the pass, setting up Brown to prove his feeling that he won in his exit from Nashville.
For the first time this season, I'm going against the grain and picking the Eagles to lose a game. The cavalry is coming and that might even start with Jordan Davis Sunday but until Dallas Goedert, Avonte Maddox, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson return, things will remain a grind and the ball bounces Tennessee's way on Sunday.
Follow Nick on Twitter: @itssnick
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
