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December 11, 2020

NFL Week 14: NFL prop bets, Super Bowl odds, awards tracker

The NFL season is reaching its stretch run, and several teams — like the Eagles — are starting to turn their attention toward 2021 as the haves and have-nots are sheering apart with Week 14 in the NFL in full swing.

For those still optimistically tracking their season-spanning prop bets, or for those interested in getting their money in now, while many of the odds we'll explore below are quite favorable, we've decided to take a look at the status of several interesting races for awards and stat leaders.

All of the odds have been assembled from TheLines.com, which collects lines and odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers and UniBet to provide contrasts for bettors to get their money in the best they can. Here's how things stand with four weeks of games to go:

Super Bowl

With the NFL's playoff format — one and done in each round — anything can and will happen, which is why even the NFL's best team, the Chiefs, offer gamblers a chance to more than double their money. Taking any of the longer shots to beat the Chiefs is a pretty tantalizing bet to make, particularly this late in the NFL season. Here are the top five teams below:

Team (record)SB Odds
Chiefs (11-1) +210
Saints (10-2)+500
Steelers (11-1) +800
Packers (9-3)+800
Rams (9-4)+1000


There is a pretty big drop off after the top five, with the Seahawks, Buccaneers and Bills tied at +1700, the Ravens at +2200, and then the Colts, Titans and Browns all sharing +3000 odds.

MVP

There are two men who can realistically win MVP, and unless Patrick Mahomes falls off a cliff like Carson Wentz did, the award really should be his running away. Rodgers has been lights out for the Packers too, and his touchdown numbers are on pace for the fifth most in a single season in NFL history. Perhaps he can close the gap a bit over the season's last few weeks?

PlayerStatsMVP odds
Patrick Mahomes, KC3,815 yds, 31 TD, 2 INT-500
Aaron Rodgers, GB3,395 yds, 36 TD, 4 INT +400


Jared Allen (+1700) and Russell Wilson (+2000) are the next best betting options with Ben Roethlisberger well below them in fifth at +5000.

Defensive player of the year

Pass-rushers have won six of the last eight Defensive Player of the Year awards (Stephon Gilmore won it as a CB last year) and it looks like it'll be seven of nine after 2020, with the top trio combining for 35 sacks and nine forced fumbles. All three of the players below have a pretty good chance of winning the award and this is perhaps the most up for grabs of any we have on the list.

PlayerStatsDPoY odds
TJ Watt, PIT12 sacks, 21 TFL, 6 PD, INT, FF+180
Aaron Donald, LAR 12.5 sacks, 16 TFL, 4 FF, FR+200
Miles Garrett, CLE10.5 sacks, 13 TFL, 4 FF, 2 FR +350

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There is also a second tier of contenders for the award needing to really impress down the stretch, like Xavien Howard (+2500), Jaire Alexander (+2500), Joey Bosa (+2500) and Jalen Ramsey (+3000).

Offensive Rookie of the Year

The Chargers are 3-9, but with a relatively thin class of offensive rookies, the award is Justin Herbert's to lose. Here are the top three:

PlayerStatsROY odds
Justin Herbert, LAC3,224 yds, 23 TD, 9 INT-900
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA989 yds, 7 TD, 0 INT+1000
Justin Jefferson, MIN61 Rec, 1,039 yds, 7 TD+1700

Despite the fact that his Chargers have been positively awful this season, Herbert has put together a solid body of work as a rookie and has few rivals that are threats to him taking home the honor, though there is a good argument to be made that the Vikings' Jefferson is the better player. 

Most passing yards

Watson and Wilson are within striking distance, if they can find a way to throw for like, 80-plus yards per game more than Mahomes down the stretch, but he's close to having the passing title locked in.

PlayerYardsOdds
Patrick Mahomes, KC3,815
-330
Deshaun Watson, HOU3,542+700
 Russell Wilson, SEA3,479+850

Most rushing yards

Just 67 yards separates the two top rushers, but oddsmakers believe in Henry. There is a pretty good risk-reward for a small wager placed on Cook here, with perhaps Henry getting hurt or some scenario taking place where the Titans rest him in Week 17.

PlayerYardsOdds
Derrick Henry, TEN1,317-250
Dalvin Cook, MIN1,250+220

Technically, Nick Chubb (+8000) and Josh Jacobs (+15000) have an outside chance of getting the rushing title, but it would likely take an injury to one of the top two guys,

Most receiving yards

And now the fun one. Take your pick here, as eight wideouts are within 142 yards of one another. A pretty convincing argument could be made for everyone on the list below.

D.K. Metcalf has been a bit inconsistent, but he's probably the most physically dominant wideout in football. Tyreek Hill has come on extremely strong of late, and Kelce has been a model of reliability for Kansas City. Stefon Diggs is tied for the lead in the NFL in receptions with 90, DeAndre Hopkins might have the best hands in the NFL, Adams has been a beast for Rodgers and Jeffers has been a breakout rookie. This one should come down to the wire. The numbers: 


PlayerYardsOdds
 D.K. Metcalf SEA1,119+350
Tyreek Hill, KC1.079+380
Travis Kelce, KC1,114
+550
Stefon Diggs, BUF1,037 +550
DeAndre Hopkins, AZ1,019+600
DeVante Adams, GB1,029+700
Justin Jefferson, MIN1,039+700
 Terry McLaurin, WAS977+850


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