February 24, 2026
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images
Can Bryce Harper get back to being an MVP-caliber first baseman?
Baseball is back — and so are most of the Phillies.
After a dominating 96-win season in 2025 and a devastating early exit to eventual World Series champions, the Dodgers, the championship window is still open for the Phils, but for how long?
The Phillies will enter 2026 with the fifth best World Series odds (+1500, via FanDuel). Expectations are still high, as is the level of talent in the clubhouse.
Sticking to their organizational mentality that keeping the window open requires keeping the core together — while also opening up some space for an infusion of young talent — familiar faces have returned and a familiar group of men will comprise the 26-man roster when camp breaks in March.
As we do every preseason, here's a deep dive into each position on the roster and its outlook heading toward Opening Day. We'll continue with first baseman Bryce Harper, a two-time National League MVP.
Is Bryce Harper, at 33, still elite? That's the question that Phillies President Of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski dared to wonder out loud during an end-of-season press conference, kickstarting a tumultuous offseason between the club and the face of the franchise.
Harper last year hit 27 homers and drove in 75 RBI – not terrible numbers, but also below expectations for an eight-time All-Star who has hit as many as 42 homers in a season and twice driven in more than 100 runs.
But Harper also played just 132 games and managed 501 at-bats thanks to a wrist injury that shelved him for nearly a month and had given him discomfort prior to going on the Injured List. He also missed a few games early in the season after taking a 96 mph Spencer Strider fastball off his right elbow.
Harper has never hit fewer than 30 homers or totaled fewer than 87 RBI when he's compiled 550 at-bats in a season. His 2025 numbers extrapolated over 550 at-bats would be 30 homers and 82 RBI – not very far off his typical pace.
So is Harper really moving away from the elite, or was he just beset in 2025 by injuries?
It's fair to mention that his slash line of .261/.357/.487 is below his career average in each category, but how could you also not point out that the guy typically batting behind him last year was either J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm or Nick Castellanos?
Even in 2026, the Phillies are still struggling to find right-handed protection for Harper, banking on free agent Adolis García to provide the power and run production that none of the other right-handers in the lineup have been able to offer.
| Team | First base (age) | 2025 stats | 2026 proj | Career WAR |
| Phillies | Bryce Harper | .261, 27 HR, 75 RBI | .270, 24 HR, 71 RBI | 54.0 |
| Braves | Matt Olson | .272, 29, 95 RBI | .262, 30 HR, 92 RBI | 39.7 |
| Mets | Jorge Polanco | .265, 26 HR, 78 RBI | .244, 21 HR, 64 RBI | 20.7 |
| Marlins | Christopher Morel | .219, 11 HR, 33 RBI | .225, 17 HR, 49 RBI | 1.6 |
| Nationals | Luis García Jr | .252, 16 HR, 56 RBI | .268, 16 HR, 64 RBI | 3.4 |
You have to wonder if the folks at Baseball-Reference.com have been hobnobbing with Dombrowski this offseason.
Despite Harper having the best career WAR (by far) among all NL first basemen, BR projects Harper in 2026 to be less impactful in the power and run production departments than Olson, and just slightly better than Polanco?
And what's with the NL East trend of relocating middle infielders to first base. Polanco, Morel and Garcia Jr. have combined to play two games at first base – both by Garcia Jr. – leaving Harper and Olson as the division's only true first basemen. Weird stuff going on in the NL. No more Pete Alonso or Josh Bell (to a lesser extent) have changed the makeup of this position in the division.
Harper enters the eighth year of a 13-year pact he signed in 2019, so the Phillies have time to find his replacement. His current backup is Alec Bohm, who moves over from third whenever Harper needs a break or is sidelined.
The closest thing the Phils have to a first base prospect is Keaton Anthony, a 2023 undrafted free agent from Iowa whose All-American college career was beset by a 2023 NCAA investigation into gambling violations among Iowa and Iowa St. athletes, per The Athletic. He was investigated but never charged.
Anthony, a very good contact hitter with modest power, slashed .323/.378/.484 last year in 82 games between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, with six homers and 39 RBI.
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