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April 06, 2026

5 Sixers thoughts: Latest playoff odds; what is different about post-suspension Paul George?

For the final time of the 2025-26 regular season, kicking off the week with a fresh batch of Sixers notes and observations.

Sixers NBA
George 4.5.26 Brian Westerholt/Imagn Images

Paul George has been a completely different player since returning from his 25-game suspension.

Welcome to the final 5 Sixers thoughts of the 2025-26 regular season.

The next time we convene to kick off the week with a batch of Sixers notes and observations, the 82-game marathon that is a season will be complete. We will know whether or not the Sixers escaped the Play-In Tournament, and who their first postseason opponent will be.

But over the next six days, the Sixers will play four crucial games. They enter the week as the Eastern Conference's No. 6 seed by virtue of a tiebreaker advantage over the Toronto Raptors. But with two challenging games on deck – the Sixers are in Texas, where they will face the San Antonio Spurs on Monday and the Houston Rockets on Thursday – this is not going to be a cakewalk.

From the Sixers' updated playoff odds to Paul George's post-suspension transformation and much more, let's begin:


Eastern Conference outlook

Entering the final week of games, the Sixers have a very loose hold on the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, with the Atlanta Hawks looking more and more like a strong bet to hold onto the No. 5 seed:

SeedTeamRecordGames back
5Atlanta Hawks45-3312.0
6Sixers43-3514.0
7Toronto Raptors43-2514.0
8Charlotte Hornets43-3614.5
9Orlando Magic42-3615.0
10Miami Heat41-3716.0

Losing on Saturday obviously did not help the Sixers' cause, but on Sunday afternoon the Boston Celtics beat the Toronto Raptors, putting the Sixers back in the driver's seat. A reminder of the Sixers' outcomes for potential two-way tiebreakers:

• The Sixers split their season series with the Toronto Raptors, 2-2, but would win a two-way tiebreaker due to their superior division record.

• The Sixers lost their season series with the Atlanta Hawks, 0-4, and would lose a two-way tiebreaker.

• The Sixers won their season series with the Orlando Magic, 2-1, and would win a two-way tiebreaker.

• The Sixers won their season series with Charlotte, 2-1, and would win a two-way tiebreaker.

 The Sixers lost their season series with Miami, 1-2, and would lose a two-way tiebreaker.

Sixers' updated playoff odds

Every team in this race has four games to play over the final six days of the season, except for the Charlotte Hornets, who have three. However, the Hornets have the most challenging slate of opponents on the docket across the NBA; they finish the season with three games against Eastern Conference powers.

Each team's remaining schedule, with games part of back-to-backs in italics:

SeedTeamRemaining opponentsSOS
5Hawksvs. NYK (50-28),
@ CLE (49-29), vs. CLE (49-29),
@ MIA (41-37)
.606
6Sixers@ SA (59-19), @ HOU (49-29),
@ IND (18-60), vs. MIL (31-47)
.503
7Raptorsvs. MIA (41-37), vs. MIA (41-37),
@ NYK (50-28), vs. BKN (19-59)
.484
8Hornets@ BOS (53-25),
vs. DET (57-21), @ NYK (50-28)
.684
9Magicvs. DET (57-21), vs. MIN (46-32),
@ CHI (29-49), @ BOS (53-25)
.593
10Heat@ TOR (43-35),
@ TOR (43-35), @ WAS (17-61),
vs. ATL (45-33)
.474

There are no cakewalks here, and while every game played by a team in this region of the conference should be on the Sixers' radar, the upcoming two-game series between the Raptors and Heat in Toronto will be especially crucial. Miami sweeping that series may seem ideal on paper, but it could also present some problematic three-way tie scenarios.

How do the statistical models see the conference shaking out? Once again, let's take a look at specific seeding odds from Dunks & Threes:

TeamNo. 5No. 6No. 7No. 8No. 9No. 10
Hawks73.7%18.4%3.9%2.1%1.8%<0.1%
Sixers5.3%42.8%21.2%13.9%13.4%3.5%
Raptors16.2%26.0%25.1%15.3%14.8%2.5%
Hornets3.6%5.0%25.8%25.5%23.4%16.6%
Magic0.2%3.7%16.9%22.1%33.8%23.3%
Heat0.9%4.1%7.0%21.1%12.9%54.1%

Interestingly, the Sixers have a better chance of securing a playoff spot than Toronto by a small margin, but the Raptors have more than triple the Sixers' chance of being the No. 5 seed. That is because, while Atlanta swept the Sixers 4-0 this season, the Raptors swept the Hawks 4-0. They would win a two-way tiebreaker over the Hawks, so they are effectively one game behind Atlanta, while the Sixers are effectively three games behind them. If Miami sweeps Toronto this week, its odds will shift dramatically.


MOREJoel Embiid calls out Daryl Morey, derailing mood after statement Sixers win


The numbers behind Paul George's post-suspension surge

George has been a transformational two-way force for the Sixers since his 25-game suspension came to an end nearly two weeks ago. The nine-time All-Star has been the stabilizing force the Sixers have needed defensively all year long, and suddenly looks the part of the dynamic three-level scorer he had completely failed to be.

Some of George's brilliance can simply be attributed to incredible shot-making. He has lagged behind his career norms on that front for much of his Sixers tenure; perhaps now it is merely reverting back to the mean. But after having seven-plus weeks to do nothing but work on his body, George said he felt more explosive than he ever has during his time in Philadelphia ahead of his March 25 return. Many people rightfully scoffed at the claim. But he is now moving at a different speed, with a different level of comfort, than he was beforehand.

Beyond making shots at a higher clip, George has upped his volume on free throws a decent bit and on three-point shots considerably. When many more of your shots are worth an extra point, it is a whole lot easier to be efficient. Case in point:

CategoryPaul George 2024-25Paul George 2025-26 before suspensionPaul George 2025-26 after suspension
Points per game17.816.025.8
True shooting percentage54.3%55.6%64.3%
Three-point attempts per 100 possessions
9.910.114.2
Free throw attempts per 100 possessions3.64.55.8

While George's rim frequency is about the same as it was before his suspension, he looks noticeably more spry, showing more conviction as a driver. Over the last few days, multiple Sixers spoke about how George operating as an efficient downhill driver opens up more scoring opportunities for the team's offense.

"I think it's more of a fact that his shot-making's been so good that teams are pressing up on him," Sixers head coach Nick Nurse said after George registered a season-high in free throws in Friday's win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. "They're almost forcing him – they're pressing up so much on the perimeter to take away the three-ball... They're really getting into him and almost forcing him inside the line, and he's been able to take it down there. It's been good, because he's been drawing fouls on those, too, which is also a huge – it kind of adds up for everybody else if he can draw a couple of those in a quarter." 

Doc Rivers to be inducted into Basketball Hall of Fame

Speaking of Sixers head coaches, Doc Rivers was announced as a member of the 2026 class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame on Saturday. Rivers, who spent three seasons in Philadelphia, oversaw Joel Embiid's leap from superstar to NBA MVP and helped kickstart Tyrese Maxey's growth during his first three years in the NBA.

"Congrats, D-O-C, man," Maxey said after Saturday's loss to the Detroit Pistons. "I'm happy for you, man. I appreciate everything you did for me. The entire Rivers family is like my family now. I talk to [Doc's son, former Sixers assistant coach Spencer] all the time, so I'm happy for him. He's had a great career, he's still going. And we see them in a couple games, right? I'll make sure I tell him congrats."

Rivers, of course, now coaches the Milwaukee Bucks. They will be in town for Sunday's regular-season finale. It also could be Rivers' final game with the Bucks, who are reportedly considering making sweeping changes after what has been a disappointing season – and perhaps in advance of, finally, a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade.


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Tyrese Martin talks life in limbo

After signing Dominick Barlow and Jabari Walker to standard contracts after the trade deadline, the Sixers replenished their two-way ranks by signing Dalen Terry and Tyrese Martin, two young swingmen with considerable NBA experience. When a two-way player signs their contract before the start of a season, they can dress for 50 out of 82 games. But that number gets prorated as the season goes on.

Terry and Martin have both had extremely limited availability for the Sixers, who were forced to exhaust much of it with so many players sidelined in March. It has caught up to them. Martin has been inactive for two weeks and Terry has not played since March 25.

"It's good for me mentally because I know the situation," Martin told PhillyVoice on Saturday. "It's not like I'm blinded by it. I knew what I was getting myself into signing, and then especially signing to a place like this."

When opportunities are limited, it could be hard for someone like Martin not to put too much pressure on himself to be noticed whenever he does get on the floor. Has it been difficult to resist that urge?

"It's definitely no pressure, rather than looking at it as coming in for a workout," Martin said. "They're both the same thing, almost, in terms of, you never know when – I just never take the game for granted within itself. So for me, any day I'm able to get a good workout in, get in a game, I'm just grateful for it all at the end of the day. So I just take advantage and get the most I can out of it."

Martin pointed out that in addition to being like-sized, the Sixers' full group of two-way players – himself, Terry and MarJon Beauchamp – all came into the league at the same time. It helps them all to have two teammates in the same position, on their last years of two-way eligibility with uncertain NBA futures, to talk to about the challenges of this life.

"We're all in the same position," Martin said, "even going forward, into this summer and even into next year. So we have some conversations, but we're just here to support each other, help each other get better and just being with one another and supporting one another."


MORE: Maxey officially qualifies for All-NBA, MVP, other end-of-season awards


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