September 04, 2025
Bill Streicher/Imagn Images
Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (88) runs with the ball against Dallas Cowboys safety Markquese Bell (14) after a catch during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 1 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Cowboys at Eagles (-8.5): The Eagles have advantages in the run game and the passing game on both sides of the ball, which we outlined in our game preview.
• Eagles run game vs. Cowboys run defense: This one is easy. The Cowboys' run defense was abysmal in 2024, and they didn't do much to fix it this offseason. The Eagles have an elite rushing offense.
• Eagles passing attack vs. Cowboys pass defense: The Cowboys traded their best pass rusher (and best overall player) in Micah Parsons, and although their cornerback position might not be bad when fully healthy, they're banged up there to start the season. The Eagles have one of the best WR duos in the NFL in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith; and a very good tight end in Dallas Goedert.
• Cowboys run game vs. Eagles run defense: The Cowboys rushed for 100.3 yards per game last season, 27th in the NFL. This year they're rolling with Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and rookie Jaydon Blue in their backfield. The Eagles finished 10th in run defense in 2024, but only gave up 6 runs of 20+ yards (3rd best in the NFL), 0 runs of 40+ yards (tied for best), and 9 rushing TDs (second best).
• Cowboys passing attack vs. Eagles pass defense: The Cowboys boast a talented trio of receivers in CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Kavontae Turpin, who will test an Eagles secondary consisting of two budding stars in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, but also a potential weak spot in whoever starts at CB2 (likely Adoree' Jackson). However, whatever weak spot the Eagles have at CB2 is offset — and then some — by the Cowboys' offensive tackle duo of Tyler Guyton and Terrence Steele, arguably the worst tackle tandem in the NFC.
The Eagles tend to start the season slowly, even if they have a 4-0 record Week 1 under Nick Sirianni. But they are just a far better team, and I can't imagine morale is super high at the moment in that Dallas locker room.
Chiefs (-3) at Chargers: I imagine that when the Chargers were getting their first look at the 2025 schedule, they were thinking, "No Week 1 against the Chiefs🤞 , no Week 1 against the Chiefs 🤞. Crap."
The Chiefs would be the last team I'd want to face after they were humiliated in the Super Bowl, and super eager to have a good feeling on the football field again.
Steelers (-2.5) at Jets: I've finally come around to the conclusion that Justin Fields is just a bad quarterback, and always will be. And yet, if I were given the choice between him or Aaron Rodgers for one season at this stage of their respective careers, I'm not so sure I'd take Rodgers.
This will be a defensive struggle between two teams with bad starting quarterbacks, and I like the Steelers' defensive big play potential more than the Jets'.
Dolphins at Colts (-1.5): I don't like this Dolphins team even a little bit, and generally think Mike McDaniel is a fraud, but it's hard to get past that the Colts are starting Daniel Jones.
Panthers at Jaguars (-3.5): It's only Week 1 and I already couldn't care less about either of these teams.
Bengals (-5.5) at Browns: The Bengals have been habitually slow starters, so head coach Zac Taylor had Joe Burrow start two preseason games, and let him attempt 24 passes. Maybe that will help. I dunno. The Bengals are better, obviously, and I'm picking them to win, but I was actually kind of impressed by the Browns during joint practices with the Eagles this summer and will take the 5.5 points.
Raiders at Patriots (-2.5): From The Ringer:
Geno Smith, 35 years old, 95 games played, 84 starts, career losing record, no playoff wins, "still has plenty to learn." 9th best quarterback in the NFL, lol.
Cardinals (-6.5) at Saints: The Saints are probably the worst team in the NFL, hence their 6.5-point home underdog status against the mediocre Cardinals.
Buccaneers (-1.5) at Falcons: Despite the Bucs winning their fourth consecutive NFC South title in 2024, the Falcons actually swept them last year. Still, this Bucs roster is very clearly the class of the NFC South, and in my opinion the second-best team in the NFC. They're just a lot better than the perennially overrated Falcons, so I'll gladly lay the 1.5 points.
Titans at Broncos (-8): I'm curious to see Bo Nix in Year 2, and Cam Ward in Year 1. This is a "feeling out" game for me.
49ers (-2.5) at Seahawks: The Seahawks have no chance of contending for a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold at quarterback, though I suppose Darnold did win his share of regular season games last season with the Vikings. The 49ers had a nightmare season in 2024, but enter 2025 with an over/under win total of 10.5. I just don't see that, even with an extraordinarily soft schedule. Give me the Seahawks, with no conviction whatsoever.
Lions at Packers (-2.5): This line jumped a full point after the Packers' acquisition of Micah Parsons, who will probably play a limited number of snaps after missing all of training camp. The Lions are still the better team, in my opinion, so give me them to win outright, and sure, I'll take the 2.5 points on top of that.
Texans at Rams (-3.5): This opinion goes against the norm a bit, but I just don't think the Rams are going to be a strong contender in the NFC this season. I have them at 9 wins. The Texans will be a fascinating team to watch. They're hoping for a bounce-back season from C.J. Stroud in front of a very suspect offensive line, but what they do have is two outstanding edge rushers in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, coupled with one of the best secondaries in the NFL, led by Derek Stingley. I like the Texans' defense's chances of stealing this game on the road.
Ravens at Bills (-1.5): I do think the Bills will ultimately earn the 1 seed in the AFC because they play in such an awful division, but the Ravens always seem to start the season strongly. The Ravens earn a statement win to begin their 2025 campaign in a battle of the last two NFL MVPs.
Vikings (-1.5) at Bears: The Vikings are one of my sleepers this season, which feels like a weird thing to say about a team that went 14-3 last season. The Bears feel like a Falcons-like team that gets overhyped for no good reason.
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 452-380-22 (0.542)
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