February 09, 2023
In the latest episode of BGN Radio, Brandon Gowton and I came up with 20 over-unders for Super Bowl LVII. I figured I may as well lay them out here and let you all play along as well.
1) Jalen Hurts rushing yards: 63.5
The NFL record for quarterback rushing yards in a Super Bowl is 64, by Steve McNair (Titans). I said under, because Hurts only went over 63 yards three times this season. It's worth noting that the Chiefs allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in the NFL this season, with 444.
2) Eagles rushing yards: 153.9
That was the Eagles' per game average on the ground in 2022, playoffs included. Something in the 150-yard range would be a good benchmark for what the Eagles need to gain on the ground to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines and win this game. I'll say over.
3) A.J. Brown receiving yards: 121.5
Terrell Owens had 122 receiving yards in the Super Bowl against the Patriots.
Brown only had seven catches for 50 yards in the Eagles' two playoff games. He got open deep against the 49ers on the Eagles' second drive of that game, but Hurts overthrew him. He was disappointed with his target share in the divisional round against the Giants, and Eagles wide receivers were not needed in the second half against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
Still, Brown has been a bigtime player in big games. He was the main reason the Titans were even in the game at all in their playoff loss to the Bengals in 2021, when he caught 5 passes for 142 yards and a TD, including two plays of over 40 yards, and two additional plays of over 20 yards. I have no doubts about Brown's ability to produce in big games, and think he'll show out in the Super Bowl. Still, 121.5 is a big number, so give me the under.
4) More receiving yards: A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith
This is an either/or instead of an over/under, but whatever.
Smith has also been a big time performer in big games. As a true freshman, he made a game-winning 41-yard catch to seal a National Championship for Alabama. In his senior season, he had the following three-game stretch in the SEC Championship Game, the College Football Playoff semifinal game, and the National Championship:
|SEC Championship vs. Florida||15||184||12.3||2|
|CFP semifinals vs. Notre Dame||7||130||18.6||3|
|National Championship Game vs. Ohio State||12||215||17.9||3|
Still, give me Brown. He feels due to break out.
5) Passes by non-quarterbacks: 1.5
There were two in the Eagles' last Super Bowl. Danny Amendola threw to Tom Brady, who dropped it. Trey Burton threw to Nick Foles, who caught it.
Give me the under this time. The Eagles don't seem to mess around with trick plays so much these days. They just execute.
6) Number of times Nick Sirianni goes for it on 4th down: 1.5
Playoffs included, Sirianni went for it 35 times this season, and converted 25 of them. You have to score touchdowns against the Chiefs, not field goals. Over.
7) Number of timeouts by Andy Reid in non-strategic situations (AKA wasted timeouts): 0.5
Andy owes it to Philly to have at least one, right? Over.
8) Jalen Hurts completions of 20+ yards: 3.5
Hurts' ability to make accurate throws in the intermediate to deeper areas of the field is the X factor in this game, in my opinion. If he can do that, goodnight Chiefs. I do think the Eagles will connect on some big plays, but four of them is a big ask. Under.
9) Brandon Graham forced fumbles: 0.5
Graham of course had one of the biggest forced fumbles in NFL history, but the odds say under.
10) More touches: Miles Sanders or the combination of Kenny Gainwell and Boston Scott
Brandon made a good point on the podcast that it feels like the Eagles have been saving Sanders for this game. Once the Eagles got big leads against the Giants and 49ers, they kept Sanders on the sidelines. Sanders' snap counts the last three games:
That's 79 snaps in five weeks. Sanders will be fresh, and there's a chance that the Eagles ride him. I'll take Sanders.
11) Patrick Mahomes interceptions: 0.5
Because the weight of the Chiefs' offense is on Mahomes and the Chiefs are such a pass-heavy team, he'll throw some occasional picks. Darius Slay feels due for a big play. Over.
12) More sacks: Haason Reddick or Chris Jones
Reddick has 9.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in his last six games. He is on fire right now, and he has a favorable matchup against Chiefs RT Andrew Wylie. Jones is a beast as well, but the Eagles' offensive line has more than proven that they can slow down dominant defensive linemen. Take Reddick.
13) Eagles touchdowns by players who did not score any touchdowns during the regular season: 0.5
This one makes you think a little. On offense you're limited to guys like Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra, or maybe an offensive lineman on a trick play. Otherwise you're counting on a defensive touchdown or a Britain Covey punt return. Under.
14) Missed kicks by either team: 0.5
The Eagles were beneficiaries of a missed kick in Arizona earlier this year when Matt Ammendola pushed one way wide right, sealing an Eagles win. I'll say over.
15) Total touchdowns by Kelces: 1.5
Travis Kelce scored 12 TDs in 2022. Jason Kelce has never scored a TD. It would be very cool if the Eagles found a way to get him one in a blowout, but, under.
16) Arryn Siposs punts: 0.5
First Siposs has to get the nod over Brett Kern. Secondly, the Eagles have to punt. I think Siposs plays, and the Eagles will punt at least once. Over.
17) Points off of scores not via touchdowns, field goals, or extra points: 2.5
So that would include two-point conversions, safeties, and some other weird stuff Brandon mentioned on the pod. Under.
18) Will Andy Reid and/or Nick Sirianni reveal the name of a play call (like "Philly Special," for example) during their postgame press conferences?
I actually have the power to affect this one, and I'll say yes.
19) Will the winning quarterback take the final offensive snap for his team?
I'll say yes.
20) Will the MVP be a quarterback or some other positional player?
I'll go chalk and take the QB.
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